Are Republicans now hurt more than Dems by "self-packing"?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Have we reached the point yet where Republicans are beginning to be hurt by self-packing more than Democrats? Even if we have not reached that point yet, if suburbs keep trending Dem while rural areas keep trending R, sooner or later this should happen. If it hasn't happened yet, how many more years do you expect it to take?

There are still plenty of examples of states/areas where Dems are hurt more by self-packing/geography, especially in the midwest (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, etc).

But there are others where we have now clearly reached the point where Republicans are hurt more by self-packing (Texas, Virginia). These states are often fast growing states in the south or west with large cities with Dem-trending suburbs.

[Roll Roons]

In some states, yes. Especially out west. The GOP already has a distinct geographical disadvantage in California, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada. The big one is Texas, but they haven't felt the full force of it because ticket-splitting kept the GOP alive in the State House and in a bunch of congressional districts that were close at the presidential level.

[Skill and Chance]

In the West and in some Southern states, yes, but not nationally, at least not yet.  Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania still exist.  And the states where Dems are self-packed are generally more competitive than the states where R's are self-packed.  So this isn't true yet. 

In a world where the Midwest outside of IL is all Safe R, GA is D+10, TX is D+5 and LA/MS/SC are swing states, this would be true. Also if R's start winning Nevada, they will really struggle for a while to win the legislature.

[Schiff for Senate]

In the West and in some Southern states, yes, but not nationally, at least not yet.  Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania still exist.  And the states where Dems are self-packed are generally more competitive than the states where R's are self-packed.  So this isn't true yet. 

In a world where the Midwest outside of IL is all Safe R, GA is D+10, TX is D+5 and LA/MS/SC are swing states, this would be true. Also if R's start winning Nevada, they will really struggle for a while to win the legislature.

I agree strongly with WI and OH; Democrats' geography in those states is just very unfortunate for them. In WI they are packed mostly into Madison and Milwaukee, so without pulling an ugly gerrymander like the ones in TX and MD (the latter a Democratic gerrymander), they have a 5-3 (and really, 6-2, once the 3rd flips) advantage in WI's House delegation, and in OH (again, without pulling an agressive gerrymander) they were able to get a 12-4 (and 13-3 once they do gerrymander Tim Ryan's seat) map (because Democrats are packed into places like Cleveland, Toledo and Columbus and have little support outside those metro areas, and declining support in Cleveland and especially Toldea).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Actually, the political geography of Ohio does not significantly favor either party.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Actually, the political geography of Ohio does not significantly favor either party.

Ye, it used top be heavy R bias but rural areas have started to "overpack" for Republicans. Most compact OH maps on 2020 numbers yield about 60% of seats for Rs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No, that's objectively and measurably still not the case.

That might be true if 10-20 years if all the trends we've seen continue, but there's no reason to assume they will.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Dems are still hurt more.  But in states that are primarily suburban the answer is yes. 

Take Connecticut as an example.  There are some contiguous pockets of rural areas.  But overall it's decisively a suburban state and most of the suburbs are voting 60-40 Dem, with some cities voting even more Dem mixed in.  Therefore the rural areas which are on either end of the state aren't efficient.

Virginia is another example.  All of the Republican strength is packed into downstate and southwest VA.  There are pockets of extreme Dem strength like Richmond, some cities in the VA Beach area, Arlington, and Alexandria.  But most of the large suburban areas where most people live are mildly Dem. 

Arizona, Nevada, Maryland are other examples of this.

But it still seems Dems get screwed over in other states like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin.  So on balance I'd say it still slightly favors the GOP in a neutral map environment.

[Hope For A New Era]

Certainly in some states. Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska come to mind.


I'm actually starting to wonder if Kansas has become so extreme that it might start going the other way. At least, it will be the first of these states to do so, if it happens. It will depend on how far suburban trends advance, but Douglas and Wyandotte are almost as blue as the west is red. The source of the D geographic advantage is almost exclusively Johnson and Shawnee.

Sedgwick actually counterweights this to an extent. It's basically the only large-enough-to-be-consequential place left in the state with areas that vote R by small margins.



And then there's Nevada. The fact that R governor + D supermajority legislature is an entirely plausible 2022 result...I love and hate it so much lol