MI-GOV: Strategic National/Craig Internal: Whitmer +1

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1440084216524382208

[SnowLabrador]

Tossup/Tilt R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer will win 52/48

[Person Man]

If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.

[SnowLabrador]

If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.

There's plenty of time for the environment to get better for Republicans, which is likely given history.

[wbrocks67]

If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.

There's plenty of time for the environment to get better for Republicans, which is likely given history.

Plenty of time for it get better for Ds, too.

[Person Man]

If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.

There's plenty of time for the environment to get better for Republicans, which is likely given history.

Plenty of time for it get better for Ds, too.

A lot of vulnerability is priced in favor of the Rs at this point. They just have to campaign better or wait for another shoe to drop (which eventually they won’t be able to fix)  to get a better environment. Even for Trump, things improved enough to win Florida, Georgia, Missouri, and SD from this time in the cycle.

[MT Treasurer]

If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.

There were sizable swings in favor of the incumbent president's party in the Upper Midwest between 2010 and 2012 as well as between 2018 and 2020, so Whitmer losing would not at all point toward a Biden loss in MI in 2024. Granted, a lot of those swings from 2010/2018 can be attributed to the disparity in R and D turnout (which I don’t think will be nearly as pronounced in 2022), but it’s still important not to read this much into these races for 2024.

This is a margin-of-error race and treating Whitmer like some unbetable titan is weird. If she wins, it will mostly be due to dynamics beyond her control (record blue state polarization, supercharged suburban trends, R collapse with the non-white vote), but she’s highly vulnerable even in a more neutral year. KS and arguably WI likely flip before MI, but there aren’t many other gubernatorial races I’d expect the GOP to flip if they can’t win MI.

[wbrocks67]

If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.

There's plenty of time for the environment to get better for Republicans, which is likely given history.

Plenty of time for it get better for Ds, too.

A lot of vulnerability is priced in favor of the Rs at this point. They just have to campaign better or wait for another shoe to drop (which eventually they won’t be able to fix)  to get a better environment. Even for Trump, things improved enough to win Florida, Georgia, Missouri, and SD from this time in the cycle.

Yeah, it really depends - if say, COVID recedes (for mostly good this time), and Dems can actually pass Biden's agenda bills this year, I could see the outlook looking much rosier for Dems.

If those 3 things don't happen, then it could be a totally different story

[Person Man]

If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.

There were sizable swings in favor of the incumbent president's party in the Upper Midwest between 2010 and 2012 as well as between 2018 and 2020, so Whitmer losing would not at all point toward a Biden loss in MI in 2024. Granted, a lot of those swings from 2010/2018 can be attributed to the disparity in R and D turnout (which I don’t think will be nearly as pronounced in 2022), but it’s still important not to read this much into these races for 2024.

This is a margin-of-error race and treating Whitmer like some unbetable titan is weird. If she wins, it will mostly be due to dynamics beyond her control (record blue state polarization, supercharged suburban trends, R collapse with the non-white vote), but she’s highly vulnerable even in a more neutral year. KS and arguably WI likely flip before MI, but there aren’t many other gubernatorial races I’d expect the GOP to flip if they can’t win MI.

Honestly, I was expecting a response like this but couldn’t succinctly place in words why I still feel that this will be more like 18-20 or 14-16 than 10-12. The polarization is a big part of it and somehow, but I don’t know actually how, Dem’s downballot and overall fatigue would make 22 not be an aberration from 24.

[Pericles]

Do Michiganders react negatively to Whitmer hypocritically breaking her own Covid rules? It's certainly something that makes her less likeable for me but I think about it differently than Americans, and of course polarisation is very strong (I'd vote for her for sure but in NZ that kind of thing might get me to vote against a candidate).

[Bojack Horseman]

Whitmer will win 52/48

I'm pretty confident that Craig will be Dick DeVos 2.0

[Calthrina950]

Whitmer will win 52/48

I'm pretty confident that Craig will be Dick DeVos 2.0

This implies that he would lose by double digits.

[MT Treasurer]

Whitmer will win 52/48

I'm pretty confident that Craig will be Dick DeVos 2.0

This implies that he would lose by double digits.

He also thought that Debbie Stabenow was the next Carl Levin and that she would win reelection by  Levin margins in 2018. I get that Stabenow's popularity/strength as a candidate is overstated to a comically absurd degree, but that was a weird prediction even by meme standards.

[Calthrina950]

Whitmer will win 52/48

I'm pretty confident that Craig will be Dick DeVos 2.0

This implies that he would lose by double digits.

He also thought that Debbie Stabenow was the next Carl Levin and that she would win reelection by  Levin margins in 2018. I get that Stabenow's popularity/strength as a candidate is overstated to a comically absurd degree, but that was a weird prediction even by meme standards.

You're right. He's always come across as very confident in Democratic prospects in Michigan. More realistically, it's clear that Whitmer is vulnerable, and this will be a very competitive, closely-fought race that could plausibly go either way next year. And Whitmer's approvals are basically even, another indicator of how polarizing a figure she's been.

[DaleCooper]

If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.

There were sizable swings in favor of the incumbent president's party in the Upper Midwest between 2010 and 2012 as well as between 2018 and 2020, so Whitmer losing would not at all point toward a Biden loss in MI in 2024. Granted, a lot of those swings from 2010/2018 can be attributed to the disparity in R and D turnout (which I don’t think will be nearly as pronounced in 2022), but it’s still important not to read this much into these races for 2024.

I've actually got somewhat of a working theory that loss of congress might the give the incumbent president a little more benefit of the doubt amongst the public. Again, I'm placing emphasis on "benefit of the doubt" rather than popularity. I don't know if this is credible or just a stupid shower thought, but it seems reasonable to me that a swing state like Michigan could hand the opposition party victories in the midterm, then shift more towards the incumbent party after the opposition inevitably makes fools of themselves once in control of congress. Again, this isn't a hill I'd die on, but since congress is consistently viewed as the least popular institution in America, it stands to reason that control of congress doesn't do a party any favors, especially among swing voters that are always choosing what they consider the lesser of two evils.

[Suburbia]

Ultimate tossup

[Bojack Horseman]

Whitmer will win 52/48

I'm pretty confident that Craig will be Dick DeVos 2.0

This implies that he would lose by double digits.

I suppose I should have been more specific, but I see a lot of the same parallels in that DeVos was considered a formidable oppponent and Granholm vulnerable in the beginning, but who ends up being a paper tiger.

[Mr.Phips]

If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.

There were sizable swings in favor of the incumbent president's party in the Upper Midwest between 2010 and 2012 as well as between 2018 and 2020, so Whitmer losing would not at all point toward a Biden loss in MI in 2024. Granted, a lot of those swings from 2010/2018 can be attributed to the disparity in R and D turnout (which I don’t think will be nearly as pronounced in 2022), but it’s still important not to read this much into these races for 2024.

I've actually got somewhat of a working theory that loss of congress might the give the incumbent president a little more benefit of the doubt amongst the public. Again, I'm placing emphasis on "benefit of the doubt" rather than popularity. I don't know if this is credible or just a stupid shower thought, but it seems reasonable to me that a swing state like Michigan could hand the opposition party victories in the midterm, then shift more towards the incumbent party after the opposition inevitably makes fools of themselves once in control of congress. Again, this isn't a hill I'd die on, but since congress is consistently viewed as the least popular institution in America, it stands to reason that control of congress doesn't do a party any favors, especially among swing voters that are always choosing what they consider the lesser of two evils.

Most voters don’t even realize who controls congress.  They often just think the President’s party always does.

[DaleCooper]

If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.

There were sizable swings in favor of the incumbent president's party in the Upper Midwest between 2010 and 2012 as well as between 2018 and 2020, so Whitmer losing would not at all point toward a Biden loss in MI in 2024. Granted, a lot of those swings from 2010/2018 can be attributed to the disparity in R and D turnout (which I don’t think will be nearly as pronounced in 2022), but it’s still important not to read this much into these races for 2024.

I've actually got somewhat of a working theory that loss of congress might the give the incumbent president a little more benefit of the doubt amongst the public. Again, I'm placing emphasis on "benefit of the doubt" rather than popularity. I don't know if this is credible or just a stupid shower thought, but it seems reasonable to me that a swing state like Michigan could hand the opposition party victories in the midterm, then shift more towards the incumbent party after the opposition inevitably makes fools of themselves once in control of congress. Again, this isn't a hill I'd die on, but since congress is consistently viewed as the least popular institution in America, it stands to reason that control of congress doesn't do a party any favors, especially among swing voters that are always choosing what they consider the lesser of two evils.

Most voters don’t even realize who controls congress.  They often just think the President’s party always does.

The opposition party gets a lot more attention once they control congress, and voters notice that even if they're unfamiliar with who's in control.

[SnowLabrador]

Given that this poll released before the recent downturn in Biden's approval ratings, safe to say Whitmer's a couple points behind now.

[Hope For A New Era]

Seems about right. WI and MI are Tossup for me right now. PA is Tilt D because it's less elastic and has several strong potential D candidates (and most potential R candidates are weak and are already proven losers).

[THG]

Seems about right. WI and MI are Tossup for me right now. PA is Tilt D because it's less elastic and has several strong potential D candidates (and most potential R candidates are weak and are already proven losers).

I think that WI is tilt R (possibly lean R), but I agree with your assessment of MI and PA.

Shapiro isn’t an unbeatable titan, but Barletta is not an impressive candidate from what I’ve seen so far.

[lfromnj]

If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.

There's plenty of time for the environment to get better for Republicans, which is likely given history.

Plenty of time for it get better for Ds, too.

A lot of vulnerability is priced in favor of the Rs at this point. They just have to campaign better or wait for another shoe to drop (which eventually they won’t be able to fix)  to get a better environment. Even for Trump, things improved enough to win Florida, Georgia, Missouri, and SD from this time in the cycle.

Yeah, it really depends - if say, COVID recedes (for mostly good this time), and Dems can actually pass Biden's agenda bills this year, I could see the outlook looking much rosier for Dems.

If those 3 things don't happen, then it could be a totally different story

Virginia Democrats passed a slew of progressive bills

[SnowLabrador]

If they can’t win in an internal…. I think the only way Whitmer loses is if Biden eventually goes on to lose, too.

There's plenty of time for the environment to get better for Republicans, which is likely given history.

Plenty of time for it get better for Ds, too.

A lot of vulnerability is priced in favor of the Rs at this point. They just have to campaign better or wait for another shoe to drop (which eventually they won’t be able to fix)  to get a better environment. Even for Trump, things improved enough to win Florida, Georgia, Missouri, and SD from this time in the cycle.

Yeah, it really depends - if say, COVID recedes (for mostly good this time), and Dems can actually pass Biden's agenda bills this year, I could see the outlook looking much rosier for Dems.

If those 3 things don't happen, then it could be a totally different story

Virginia Democrats passed a slew of progressive bills

This. McAuliffe absolutely sh*t the bed. He had a lot of policy accomplishments to tout, so why didn't he?