NJ- National Research/Ciattarelli Internal: Murphy +3

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1439990976228040711

[wbrocks67]

This has Ciattarrelli winning GOP 79/10, while Murphy only winning Dems 69/17.

And Murphy still up by 3.

[kwabbit]

We need some public polling badly in this race. I believe that historically internals generally overrate their candidate by 7 points, so the last two Ciattarelli internals would suggest around Murphy +9/10 which seems reasonable. Hopefully Farleigh Dickinson or Monmouth can do another poll.

[Person Man]

I think Murphy wins by 3 and Youngkin pulls it off in the world where Republicans get 56 seats in the senate, 250 in the house, 34 Governor mansions, and  Biden loses all the swing states and at least one northern or western blue state.

[Person Man]

We need some public polling badly in this race. I believe that historically internals generally overrate their candidate by 7 points, so the last two Ciattarelli internals would suggest around Murphy +9/10 which seems reasonable. Hopefully Farleigh Dickinson or Monmouth can do another poll.

And put TMac at about 52-53%.

[President Johnson]

Too many undecideds, but I really don't see Murphy just winning in single digits.

[wbrocks67]

Too many undecideds, but I really don't see Murphy just winning in single digits.

Also, Murphy likely to win more Rs than Ciattarelli wins Ds.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Multiply the margin by five, and that's my expectation.

[Pollster]

This looks like the ballot test after the poll has tested multiple messages favoring their candidate/attacking their opponent (which is common practice for internals that are made public).