Butterfly effects in politics?

[Tekken_Guy]

What events in politics do you think could have caused big butterfly effects?

[Continential]

Everything given had something happened, everyone's lives would have been changed from our timeline.

[darklordoftech]

If John Heinz didn’t die in a plane crash, Dick Thornburgh would have stayed Attorney General, which means William Barr wouldn’t have become Attorney General, which means Gitmo and mass surveillance would never exist.

If Thurgood Marshall held on until Bill Clinton’s inauguration, a bunch of 5-4 SCOTUS decisions would have went the other way.

[Pericles]

Anthony Weiner restraining himself that one time comes to mind.

[Vosem]

A tiny improvement in Republican performance at the 1986 midterm (2% swing) results in a hugely more conservative Supreme Court during the 1990s (almost certainly Robert Bork and Edith Jones take the seats of Anthony Kennedy and David Souter), with unpredictable effects for later US history.

Two of the finalists Bush considered for the seat that ultimately went to Alito would've resulted in a liberal court in short order (Karen Williams developed early-onset severe Alzheimer's disease in 2009, and Michael Luttig shifted very hard to the left in the 2010s).

Without Comey's announcement of the investigation into Hillary Clinton in October 2016 she probably wins. Without CNN's decision to invite Chris Christie to the New Hampshire debate, quite plausibly Rubio is nominated and Trump's rise is averted entirely.

[Hindsight was 2020]

If Paul Wellstone lived. He doesn’t die then there is no Norm Coleman or Al Franken. Which in turn means no long recount for 2008 having the effect of Obama having more legislative room to work with in 2009

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A tiny improvement in Republican performance at the 1986 midterm (2% swing) results in a hugely more conservative Supreme Court during the 1990s (almost certainly Robert Bork and Edith Jones take the seats of Anthony Kennedy and David Souter), with unpredictable effects for later US history.

Two of the finalists Bush considered for the seat that ultimately went to Alito would've resulted in a liberal court in short order (Karen Williams developed early-onset severe Alzheimer's disease in 2009, and Michael Luttig shifted very hard to the left in the 2010s).

Without Comey's announcement of the investigation into Hillary Clinton in October 2016 she probably wins. Without CNN's decision to invite Chris Christie to the New Hampshire debate, quite plausibly Rubio is nominated and Trump's rise is averted entirely.

Don't forget Harriet Miers, but I think she was just nominated so that as cover for the real nominee being a man replacing a woman.

[Vosem]

A tiny improvement in Republican performance at the 1986 midterm (2% swing) results in a hugely more conservative Supreme Court during the 1990s (almost certainly Robert Bork and Edith Jones take the seats of Anthony Kennedy and David Souter), with unpredictable effects for later US history.

Two of the finalists Bush considered for the seat that ultimately went to Alito would've resulted in a liberal court in short order (Karen Williams developed early-onset severe Alzheimer's disease in 2009, and Michael Luttig shifted very hard to the left in the 2010s).

Without Comey's announcement of the investigation into Hillary Clinton in October 2016 she probably wins. Without CNN's decision to invite Chris Christie to the New Hampshire debate, quite plausibly Rubio is nominated and Trump's rise is averted entirely.

Don't forget Harriet Miers, but I think she was just nominated so that as cover for the real nominee being a man replacing a woman.

Eh. Harriet Miers would probably still be on the Court if she had been confirmed, and I don't think there's good evidence for her jurisprudence becoming any different than how Alito's turned out.

[Brittain33]

Jeri Ryan (7 of 9 from Star Trek:Voyager)'s divorce leading to President Obama is the canonical example.

[Pericles]

Also, it may be that if Broward County designed their ballots properly Democrats would be able to pass more of their agenda. Exactly how consequential it was remains to be seen and Sinema is a problem too, but if she were the one deciding vote it would be easier to find a solution.

[Roll Roons]

Chris Christie shutting down the bridge.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Anthony Weiner restraining himself that one time comes to mind.

One of the main things about Anthony Weiner was that there really wasn’t just “one time”.

[Skill and Chance]

Chris Christie shutting down the bridge.

Do you think he would have been elected president in 2016 without that?

[Roll Roons]

Chris Christie shutting down the bridge.

Do you think he would have been elected president in 2016 without that?

Without a doubt. He was set to be the establishment choice, and with his fighter attitude (but without Trump's personal baggage), would have played to the base much better than milquetoast Jeb!

[Ferguson97]

Can’t believe no one has said 540 people voting the other way in Florida in 2000.

[Brittain33]

Can’t believe no one has said 540 people voting the other way in Florida in 2000.

Literally a butterfly ballot effect.

[Skill and Chance]

Can’t believe no one has said 540 people voting the other way in Florida in 2000.

IDK.  I would say 2004 was the highly consequential election of that era- between the CJ vacancy on SCOTUS and the mortgage crisis.  2008 was a guaranteed incumbent loss because the point at which the financial crisis became inevitable was prior to 2004.  2000 didn't mean a whole lot.  Even if Gore didn't go to war as much as Bush, he would lose to an even bigger hawk like McCain in 2004.   

A Kerry Ohio victory in 2004 while losing the PV would be so much more consequential.  The CJ seat on SCOTUS flips (the Senate wouldn't have the votes to block it in that era, certainly not in the first year of a new president's term), the EC is likely abolished by 2008, and Kerry withdraws troops from most of the Middle East 15-20 years earlier. 

[Hope For A New Era]

Todd Akin may have accidentally saved the ACA by means of "legitimate rape."

[emailking]

Also, it may be that if Broward County designed their ballots properly Democrats would be able to pass more of their agenda. Exactly how consequential it was remains to be seen and Sinema is a problem too, but if she were the one deciding vote it would be easier to find a solution.

What are you referring to here? Bill Nelson?

[darklordoftech]

- The Senate rejects Aaron Burr’s suggestion to repeal the ban on fillibusters.
- William Henry Harrison lives.
- Lincoln is allowed to keep Hannibal Hamlin as his running mate.
- McKinley doesn’t get assassinated.
- William Jennings Bryan runs in 1912 instead of 1908.
- California votes for Charles Evans Hughes in 1916.
- Woodrow Wilson doesn’t have a stroke.
- Warren Harding doesn’t appoint Herbert Hoover to be Secretary of Commerce.

If Paul Wellstone lived. He doesn’t die then there is no Norm Coleman or Al Franken. Which in turn means no long recount for 2008 having the effect of Obama having more legislative room to work with in 2009

And Al Franken would just be a comedian who got me too’d.

Todd Akin may have accidentally saved the ACA by means of "legitimate rape."

And Roy Moore’s mall activities might have saved the ACA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any number of minor effects in close presidential elections.  2000 and the butterfly effect is the obvious one and was already mentioned.  Others:

1976 - flip a few thousand votes in Ohio and Mississippi (perhaps with a different running mate for Ford, such as Howard Baker) and Ford wins, which has big knock-off effects going forward; if events unfold as they did in OTL, a Democrat wins in 1980, and Reagan never becomes President.

1960 - Nixon doesn't debate Kennedy on TV and flips enough votes in the close states to win.
Probably less escalation in Vietnam.  JFK doesn't get assassinated and probably runs again (and wins?) in '64 or '68. 

1948 - an underrated possibility; flip a few thousand votes in 3 states and Dewey wins by 1 electoral vote.

1876 - an honest count gives Tilden the win, and there's no Compromise of 1877 so Reconstruction isn't ended as early.

[Person Man]

Any number of minor effects in close presidential elections.  2000 and the butterfly effect is the obvious one and was already mentioned.  Others:

1976 - flip a few thousand votes in Ohio and Mississippi (perhaps with a different running mate for Ford, such as Howard Baker) and Ford wins, which has big knock-off effects going forward; if events unfold as they did in OTL, a Democrat wins in 1980, and Reagan never becomes President.

1960 - Nixon doesn't debate Kennedy on TV and flips enough votes in the close states to win.
Probably less escalation in Vietnam.  JFK doesn't get assassinated and probably runs again (and wins?) in '64 or '68.  

1948 - an underrated possibility; flip a few thousand votes in 3 states and Dewey wins by 1 electoral vote.

1876 - an honest count gives Tilden the win, and there's no Compromise of 1877 so Reconstruction isn't ended as early.

Would Tilden just have ended it himself or were there still too many pro-civil rights Republicans?

[darklordoftech]

- J. Caleb Boggs defeats Joe Biden in the 1972 Deleware Senate election.

- William Roy doesn’t perform abortions as a doctor, so he defeats Bob Dole in the 1974 Kansas Senate election, so Ford picks a different running mate.

- Ford doesn’t say, “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.”

- Jacob Javits doesn’t run third-party after Al D’Amato primaries him out.

- Joe Biden remembers to cite Neil Kinnock.

- Bill Clinton opposes NAFTA and the WTO.

- Monica Lewinsky gets a full-time job in California in 1994.

- Bill Clinton vetoes Gramm-Leach-Bliley

- Hillary Clinton doesn’t promise to serve a full Senate term in 2000.

- Hillary Clinton votes against the 2002 Iraq AUMF.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any number of minor effects in close presidential elections.  2000 and the butterfly effect is the obvious one and was already mentioned.  Others:

1976 - flip a few thousand votes in Ohio and Mississippi (perhaps with a different running mate for Ford, such as Howard Baker) and Ford wins, which has big knock-off effects going forward; if events unfold as they did in OTL, a Democrat wins in 1980, and Reagan never becomes President.

1960 - Nixon doesn't debate Kennedy on TV and flips enough votes in the close states to win.
Probably less escalation in Vietnam.  JFK doesn't get assassinated and probably runs again (and wins?) in '64 or '68.  

1948 - an underrated possibility; flip a few thousand votes in 3 states and Dewey wins by 1 electoral vote.

1876 - an honest count gives Tilden the win, and there's no Compromise of 1877 so Reconstruction isn't ended as early.

Would Tilden just have ended it himself or were there still too many pro-civil rights Republicans?

He likely would have ended it, but probably more gradually.

[StateBoiler]

- The Senate rejects Aaron Burr’s suggestion to repeal the ban on fillibusters.

Good one.

- William Henry Harrison lives.

I mentioned that. We would've probably had a National Bank of the U.S. at the very least.

- Lincoln is allowed to keep Hannibal Hamlin as his running mate.

While with hindsight the "National Union Party" doing the Johnson pick for VP in 1864 is horrendous, I'm not sure this changes much other than we wouldn't have had formal impeachment proceedings. Congress would've still been overwhelmingly Republican, would've still been radicalized, and that means the president's point of view could easily be overridden by a supermajority Congress.

- William Jennings Bryan runs in 1912 instead of 1908.

Eh...spent force.

- Woodrow Wilson doesn’t have a stroke.

What, he doesn't suffer a stroke he suddenly is not a complete asshole to everyone?

- Warren Harding doesn’t appoint Herbert Hoover to be Secretary of Commerce.

There are tons of those though.