2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[adma]

re: P'boro -- I find it interesting that Bay of Quinte also flipped though. Could it be a regional thing?

Well, interesting in that it was the only Ontario geography to see Lib-to-CPC flips in '19 as well--Hastings-L&A + Northumberland-Peterborough S went then, and these two went now.  In fact, BoQ was a bit unique in Ontario in its '15-'19 lurch from "safe" to "supermarginal"; so that, plus the fact that it was "non-metropolitan" (unlike the GTA or even K-W), made it very low-hanging fruit or "unfinished business" for the Cons this time around.  What also helps is that BoQ's the home of CFB Trenton, where O'Toole's military background gives him some "native son" stature.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

re: P'boro -- I find it interesting that Bay of Quinte also flipped though. Could it be a regional thing?

BoQ was never a natural Liberal riding. It's roughly divided into three parts - Belleville, Quinte West, and Prince Edward County. All three are pretty distinct, and the poll-by-poll maps tell the story.

Belleville is the most urban, working-class, and low-income of the three, so naturally the least CPC-inclined part. In 2015, the Liberals ran Belleville mayor Neil Ellis - this in addition to Trudeaumania and Harper fatigue meant that Belleville was swept by the LPC, winning every poll, and by huge margins at that. In 2019, we start to see more CPC polls emerge and Ellis margins narrow, as Ontario sans GTA shifted Conservative generally.

Quinte West - slightly less urban, slightly higher income. In 2015, LPC won the most polls but CPC was competitive, in 2019, CPC won most polls but LPC was competitive. Same story as Belleville, but smaller Liberal base to begin with.

Prince Edward County - lots of retirees, lots of tourism. Ergo, lots of Liberals. To be fair, retirees can go either LPC or CPC, but in the context of rural Ontario, they probably shift a riding Liberal. As for the "touristy" factor, the tourism industry almost always benefits the Grits. 2015 and 2019 poll-by-polls showed a continued Liberal dominance in Prince Edward County.

My guess is that Prince Edward stayed the same, possibly even more Liberal as retirees seem to be moving more to the LPC. However, the Tory trend in rural and small-city Ontario has continued, and I think O'Toole is a pretty natural fit. I'd expect the poll-by-polls to show Tory polls outnumbering Liberal polls in Belleville, giving BoQ to them.

[adma]

re: P'boro -- I find it interesting that Bay of Quinte also flipped though. Could it be a regional thing?

BoQ was never a natural Liberal riding. It's roughly divided into three parts - Belleville, Quinte West, and Prince Edward County. All three are pretty distinct, and the poll-by-poll maps tell the story.

Belleville is the most urban, working-class, and low-income of the three, so naturally the least CPC-inclined part. In 2015, the Liberals ran Belleville mayor Neil Ellis - this in addition to Trudeaumania and Harper fatigue meant that Belleville was swept by the LPC, winning every poll, and by huge margins at that. In 2019, we start to see more CPC polls emerge and Ellis margins narrow, as Ontario sans GTA shifted Conservative generally.

Quinte West - slightly less urban, slightly higher income. In 2015, LPC won the most polls but CPC was competitive, in 2019, CPC won most polls but LPC was competitive. Same story as Belleville, but smaller Liberal base to begin with.

Prince Edward County - lots of retirees, lots of tourism. Ergo, lots of Liberals. To be fair, retirees can go either LPC or CPC, but in the context of rural Ontario, they probably shift a riding Liberal. As for the "touristy" factor, the tourism industry almost always benefits the Grits. 2015 and 2019 poll-by-polls showed a continued Liberal dominance in Prince Edward County.

My guess is that Prince Edward stayed the same, possibly even more Liberal as retirees seem to be moving more to the LPC. However, the Tory trend in rural and small-city Ontario has continued, and I think O'Toole is a pretty natural fit. I'd expect the poll-by-polls to show Tory polls outnumbering Liberal polls in Belleville, giving BoQ to them.

NB: the provincial territory's been reasonably solidly held by the PCs' Todd Smith since 2011--well, most of it; Quinte West had been bunched w/Northumberland pre-2018, and that also went Tory in 2011 but bounced back to the Libs for a term in 2014.

Though there is a kind of quasi-natural "Loyalist Liberalism" that can tie Quinte environs into Greater Kingston (and indeed, which unexpectedly swayed Hastings-L&A in the Lib direction in '15).

While urbanity definitely plays a part in Belleville's Liberal inclinations, given the trajectory of things I'm no longer so sure whether working-class/low-income is so much a part of it all--indeed, the most Lib/non-Con-leaning parts of Belleville tend to be more middle/upper these days.  It's a "regional hub", and that has a way of inducing a Lib-leaning Laurentian cosmopolitanism.

Quinte West, as aforementioned, is very much coloured by CFB Trenton, where O'Toole was stationed in his military years.  And while Trenton proper has its own working-class scrappiness, any Liberal oxygen that could generate has lately been squeeze-played by the "military town" element.  Plus, Quinte West is one of those Harris-era megamunicipalities, so most of it happens to be rural/exurban.

PEC is sort of "tripartite".  The tourist economy (but also, in the case of Picton, "small urbanity") does give the Libs more of a boost than is usual in rural Ontario these days; nonetheless, I can see what's left of "old PEC" shifting further to the right in keeping with broader rural Ontario trends, perhaps even by way of reaction to the influx.  And the third element to that "tripartite" is that of PEC as part of the urban Quinte commuter belt--that is, Ameliasburgh serving as a "desirable" Belleville/Trenton exurb; and I can picture that element shifting rightward, too (it was already the "bluest" part of PEC in '19).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

re: P'boro -- I find it interesting that Bay of Quinte also flipped though. Could it be a regional thing?

BoQ was never a natural Liberal riding. It's roughly divided into three parts - Belleville, Quinte West, and Prince Edward County. All three are pretty distinct, and the poll-by-poll maps tell the story.

Belleville is the most urban, working-class, and low-income of the three, so naturally the least CPC-inclined part. In 2015, the Liberals ran Belleville mayor Neil Ellis - this in addition to Trudeaumania and Harper fatigue meant that Belleville was swept by the LPC, winning every poll, and by huge margins at that. In 2019, we start to see more CPC polls emerge and Ellis margins narrow, as Ontario sans GTA shifted Conservative generally.

Quinte West - slightly less urban, slightly higher income. In 2015, LPC won the most polls but CPC was competitive, in 2019, CPC won most polls but LPC was competitive. Same story as Belleville, but smaller Liberal base to begin with.

Prince Edward County - lots of retirees, lots of tourism. Ergo, lots of Liberals. To be fair, retirees can go either LPC or CPC, but in the context of rural Ontario, they probably shift a riding Liberal. As for the "touristy" factor, the tourism industry almost always benefits the Grits. 2015 and 2019 poll-by-polls showed a continued Liberal dominance in Prince Edward County.

My guess is that Prince Edward stayed the same, possibly even more Liberal as retirees seem to be moving more to the LPC. However, the Tory trend in rural and small-city Ontario has continued, and I think O'Toole is a pretty natural fit. I'd expect the poll-by-polls to show Tory polls outnumbering Liberal polls in Belleville, giving BoQ to them.

NB: the provincial territory's been reasonably solidly held by the PCs' Todd Smith since 2011--well, most of it; Quinte West had been bunched w/Northumberland pre-2018, and that also went Tory in 2011 but bounced back to the Libs for a term in 2014.

Though there is a kind of quasi-natural "Loyalist Liberalism" that can tie Quinte environs into Greater Kingston (and indeed, which unexpectedly swayed Hastings-L&A in the Lib direction in '15).

While urbanity definitely plays a part in Belleville's Liberal inclinations, given the trajectory of things I'm no longer so sure whether working-class/low-income is so much a part of it all--indeed, the most Lib/non-Con-leaning parts of Belleville tend to be more middle/upper these days.  It's a "regional hub", and that has a way of inducing a Lib-leaning Laurentian cosmopolitanism.

Quinte West, as aforementioned, is very much coloured by CFB Trenton, where O'Toole was stationed in his military years.  And while Trenton proper has its own working-class scrappiness, any Liberal oxygen that could generate has lately been squeeze-played by the "military town" element.  Plus, Quinte West is one of those Harris-era megamunicipalities, so most of it happens to be rural/exurban.

PEC is sort of "tripartite".  The tourist economy (but also, in the case of Picton, "small urbanity") does give the Libs more of a boost than is usual in rural Ontario these days; nonetheless, I can see what's left of "old PEC" shifting further to the right in keeping with broader rural Ontario trends, perhaps even by way of reaction to the influx.  And the third element to that "tripartite" is that of PEC as part of the urban Quinte commuter belt--that is, Ameliasburgh serving as a "desirable" Belleville/Trenton exurb; and I can picture that element shifting rightward, too (it was already the "bluest" part of PEC in '19).

Yeah I forgot the military factor in Trenton. That's a CPC base in most elections, but probably even more so this time given O'Toole's Trenton/CAF connections and the military vote having more reason to punish the LPC this time out.

I think you're right that the bulk of the LPC base in Belleville is probably more "white-collar Laurentian" than "working-class small town" at this point. I was thinking more 2015 when it seemed like class was a major dividing point. More well-off parts of the GTA (along with ethnic factors for the Chinese and Jewish votes in some ridings) had a great Tory showing in 2015 - note how Eglinton-Lawrence was the CPC's second-best 416 riding, probably a combination of the Jewish vote, Joe Oliver, and the wealthy demographic. Meanwhile, more rugged smaller cities in Southern Ontario went hard for the LPC.

Based on the poll-by-poll maps, some of the smaller class cities/towns that voted LPC in 2015 include:
- Chatham (not the rural parts of Chatham-Kent, just Chatham proper)
- Owen Sound
- Woodstock (very competitive, but not a CPC sweep like 2019)
- Simcoe and Port Dover, the major population centres in Haldimand-Norfolk
- Orillia
- Basically all the towns between the GTA and Kingston - Port Hope, Cobourg, Belleville, Napanee, etc
- Brockville
- Cornwall

All of these places, save for some in the GTA-Kingston strip, voted CPC in 2019, again based on a cursory poll-by-poll analysis. There are still Liberal town in Southern Ontario like Saugeen Shores, Collingwood, and Stratford, but they're uniquely culturally left-leaning.

This is probably the biggest problem for the CPC. Just by the nature of districting, most of these small cities and big towns where they've won over 2015 Trudeau supporters are surrounded by hyper-Tory rural areas, and the ridings have always been CPC. Apart from the GTA-Kingston corridor, there were no rural Liberal ridings for them to flip in Southern Ontario - only Glengarry-Prescott-Russell remains red, which is majority Francophone and has very unique dynamics. So although O'Toole maintained a respectable popular vote in Ontario, most of it probably came from gains in these Liberal enclaves.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

JJ McCullough put out a video analyzing the election - and I have to say, his weird twitter takes aside, his analysis was pretty good.

He said something to the effect of: "This election suggests to me that most Canadians aren't voting based on the platforms. There's no doubt that O'Toole ran on an aggressively moderate platform, but his seats were all in the most right-wing parts of the country. Canadians vote more on the basis of cultural identity, and even though O'Toole and the CPC resonates with the cultural identity of many Canadians, the seat-rich major metropolitan areas remain loyal to the worldview of Liberals."

[adma]

I think you're right that the bulk of the LPC base in Belleville is probably more "white-collar Laurentian" than "working-class small town" at this point. I was thinking more 2015 when it seemed like class was a major dividing point. More well-off parts of the GTA (along with ethnic factors for the Chinese and Jewish votes in some ridings) had a great Tory showing in 2015 - note how Eglinton-Lawrence was the CPC's second-best 416 riding, probably a combination of the Jewish vote, Joe Oliver, and the wealthy demographic. Meanwhile, more rugged smaller cities in Southern Ontario went hard for the LPC.

In a convoluted way, that echoes the S Ontario "free trade populism" patterns in 1988--the strongest (i.e. clear majority) Tory places tended to be well-heeled GTA seats, while it was in the heartland that the Libs scored most of their upsets and near-upsets.  (Which might also have been a last gasp of the Robarts/Davis-era "Big Blue Machine" dynamic, where the Tories were the urban cosmopolitans and seemingly to the left of the rural/small-town-based Liberals.)

[mileslunn]

Given the growing metropolitan/nonmetropolitan polarization, it's not surprising to see Peterborough lose its "bellwether" status - it's just less and less representative of modern-day, diverse Canada. O'Toole also represents a nearby riding.

Well, bellwethers were always BS--and given the popular vote vs seat-count thing, one might argue whether P'boro already defied the bellwether in the *other* direction in '19.  So, a bit of a dovetail thing.

Plus, being a big city and all, P'boro's in a fuzzy territory btw/"metropolitan" and "nonmetropolitan"--not quite a glorified-outerburb a la Barrie, but also, at least momentarily, not quite a (Trent) campussy left-nucleus a la Guelph or Kingston.  So under a different circumstance, it could have tilted (and still could, in the future) out of bellwetherdom in the *other* direction, much like another longtime bellwether, Kitchener Centre.  (And it's interesting how in *both* those ridings this time, the final outcome was affected by incumbent controversy.)

Peterborough-Kawartha is still more of a "borderline" devil than seemingly out-of-sight cases like Brantford-Brant or Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte--unless the fall of Monsef terminally pricks a bubble in the local Liberal machine (and a lot of the baked-in permanent Conservative cast to SW Ontario ridings like Brantford-Brant has at least as much to do with the atrophy of local Liberal machines--basically, they've "thrown" the ridings to the Cons, even if on paper they *shouldn't* have.)

Sarnia-Lambton was a bellwether until 2015, but now it is a solid Conservative riding.  It is very much a rust belt though so following similar patterns to places in Midwest that Democrats used to do well in, but now solidly GOP.

[mileslunn]

I think you're right that the bulk of the LPC base in Belleville is probably more "white-collar Laurentian" than "working-class small town" at this point. I was thinking more 2015 when it seemed like class was a major dividing point. More well-off parts of the GTA (along with ethnic factors for the Chinese and Jewish votes in some ridings) had a great Tory showing in 2015 - note how Eglinton-Lawrence was the CPC's second-best 416 riding, probably a combination of the Jewish vote, Joe Oliver, and the wealthy demographic. Meanwhile, more rugged smaller cities in Southern Ontario went hard for the LPC.

In a convoluted way, that echoes the S Ontario "free trade populism" patterns in 1988--the strongest (i.e. clear majority) Tory places tended to be well-heeled GTA seats, while it was in the heartland that the Libs scored most of their upsets and near-upsets.  (Which might also have been a last gasp of the Robarts/Davis-era "Big Blue Machine" dynamic, where the Tories were the urban cosmopolitans and seemingly to the left of the rural/small-town-based Liberals.)

True, although it seems in GTA the more white upper middle class areas Tories improved and while fell short they did better in those than more working class diverse areas.  Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Oakville, and Burlington all examples of this.  By contrast Ford may have won most of those but underperformed and did better more in the diverse working class areas.  Etobicoke North, Scarborough North just two examples of areas Ford won massively in, but O'Toole got clobbered in.  Even in Mississauga, O'Toole's best riding was Mississauga-Lakeshore while in last Ontario election, that was the best one for OLP and closest.  So perhaps O'Toole's moderation did help him with upper middle class whites but not enough to flip ridings and also with GTA being very diverse unlike in 80s so Tories need to find a way to do better with visible minorities if they wish to breakthrough in the GTA.

[adma]

True, although it seems in GTA the more white upper middle class areas Tories improved and while fell short they did better in those than more working class diverse areas.  Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Oakville, and Burlington all examples of this.  By contrast Ford may have won most of those but underperformed and did better more in the diverse working class areas.  Etobicoke North, Scarborough North just two examples of areas Ford won massively in, but O'Toole got clobbered in.  Even in Mississauga, O'Toole's best riding was Mississauga-Lakeshore while in last Ontario election, that was the best one for OLP and closest.  So perhaps O'Toole's moderation did help him with upper middle class whites but not enough to flip ridings and also with GTA being very diverse unlike in 80s so Tories need to find a way to do better with visible minorities if they wish to breakthrough in the GTA.

It's worth noting that in the 2014 provincial election, the Tim Hudak PCs got clobbered for their promise to kill civil service jobs--but where *they* improved their lot (and again, not enough to win) was in "monied" neighbourhoods; so a riding like Etobicoke Centre had more of an emphatic "blue donut hole" than it did in '11...

[mileslunn]

True, although it seems in GTA the more white upper middle class areas Tories improved and while fell short they did better in those than more working class diverse areas.  Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Oakville, and Burlington all examples of this.  By contrast Ford may have won most of those but underperformed and did better more in the diverse working class areas.  Etobicoke North, Scarborough North just two examples of areas Ford won massively in, but O'Toole got clobbered in.  Even in Mississauga, O'Toole's best riding was Mississauga-Lakeshore while in last Ontario election, that was the best one for OLP and closest.  So perhaps O'Toole's moderation did help him with upper middle class whites but not enough to flip ridings and also with GTA being very diverse unlike in 80s so Tories need to find a way to do better with visible minorities if they wish to breakthrough in the GTA.

It's worth noting that in the 2014 provincial election, the Tim Hudak PCs got clobbered for their promise to kill civil service jobs--but where *they* improved their lot (and again, not enough to win) was in "monied" neighbourhoods; so a riding like Etobicoke Centre had more of an emphatic "blue donut hole" than it did in '11...

My guess is taxes.  With huge deficit, most with money figure they are on the firing line for higher taxes.  True Liberal platform only promised to limit deductions on high earners, not raise rates, but many probably figure they will get hit with higher rates and also won't just be those in top bracket (who aren't large enough anywhere to really swing any ridings) but probably top three brackets and in those ridings you have lots in the 26% bracket.  Also perhaps fear of a home equity tax too even though Liberals have repeatedly ruled it out, nonetheless those who are home owners might worry about it especially if property has high value as opposed to renters who won't care.

[Flyersfan232]

Will we ever see a coalition in canada

[mileslunn]

Will we ever see a coalition in canada

Never say never, but we don't have a history of it so unlikely.  More like a supply and confidence where an opposition party promises to vote with government on all confidence matters like NDP-Green in BC 2017 or Liberal-NDP one in Ontario 1985, but is free to vote differently on individual legislation that is not a confidence matter and for those government relies on different parties for different issues.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Will we ever see a coalition in canada

If we ever adopt PR (hah), yes. Under FPTP, unlikely.

Though at the provincial level, I'd watch for Ontario 2022. If the PCs win the upcoming election but don't get a majority (I think this is a very likely scenario), there will be huge pressure on the OLP and ONDP to go into coalition. Whichever one of those is the third party will have to weigh the risks of being a junior coalition partner vs the backlash of allowing Ford to govern.

[progressive85]

So just as a refreshment, what was the final balance of power after this election?  Usually i follow the Canadian elections but this one came from nowhere and I was too occupied with U.S. issues and COVID to really devote that much attention to our lovely Northern neighbor.... Justin Trudeau will remain P.M.  Did any of the smaller parties make gains?

[DC Al Fine]

So just as a refreshment, what was the final balance of power after this election?  Usually i follow the Canadian elections but this one came from nowhere and I was too occupied with U.S. issues and COVID to really devote that much attention to our lovely Northern neighbor.... Justin Trudeau will remain P.M.  Did any of the smaller parties make gains?

Not really, this election had the smallest change in seat count in Canadian history.

[progressive85]

So just as a refreshment, what was the final balance of power after this election?  Usually i follow the Canadian elections but this one came from nowhere and I was too occupied with U.S. issues and COVID to really devote that much attention to our lovely Northern neighbor.... Justin Trudeau will remain P.M.  Did any of the smaller parties make gains?

Not really, this election had the smallest change in seat count in Canadian history.

oh wow, so a "status quo election" it was, then?  Do you feel the next election will be a real game-changer?

[adma]

True, although it seems in GTA the more white upper middle class areas Tories improved and while fell short they did better in those than more working class diverse areas.  Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Oakville, and Burlington all examples of this.  By contrast Ford may have won most of those but underperformed and did better more in the diverse working class areas.  Etobicoke North, Scarborough North just two examples of areas Ford won massively in, but O'Toole got clobbered in.  Even in Mississauga, O'Toole's best riding was Mississauga-Lakeshore while in last Ontario election, that was the best one for OLP and closest.  So perhaps O'Toole's moderation did help him with upper middle class whites but not enough to flip ridings and also with GTA being very diverse unlike in 80s so Tories need to find a way to do better with visible minorities if they wish to breakthrough in the GTA.

It's worth noting that in the 2014 provincial election, the Tim Hudak PCs got clobbered for their promise to kill civil service jobs--but where *they* improved their lot (and again, not enough to win) was in "monied" neighbourhoods; so a riding like Etobicoke Centre had more of an emphatic "blue donut hole" than it did in '11...

My guess is taxes.  With huge deficit, most with money figure they are on the firing line for higher taxes.  True Liberal platform only promised to limit deductions on high earners, not raise rates, but many probably figure they will get hit with higher rates and also won't just be those in top bracket (who aren't large enough anywhere to really swing any ridings) but probably top three brackets and in those ridings you have lots in the 26% bracket.  Also perhaps fear of a home equity tax too even though Liberals have repeatedly ruled it out, nonetheless those who are home owners might worry about it especially if property has high value as opposed to renters who won't care.

One thing to note about those Con gains-but-not-enough, whether provincially in '14 or federally in '21: it'd seem that the biggest problem w/a platform and leadership that plays best among the 1% is that even in the most 1%-infused ridings, there isn't enough 1% to go around.  It's a "rich rump"; a gated electoral enclave....

[DC Al Fine]

Our best swings were in Newfoundland and and Northern Ontario. Not exactly the Bridle Path lol

[DC Al Fine]

So just as a refreshment, what was the final balance of power after this election?  Usually i follow the Canadian elections but this one came from nowhere and I was too occupied with U.S. issues and COVID to really devote that much attention to our lovely Northern neighbor.... Justin Trudeau will remain P.M.  Did any of the smaller parties make gains?

Not really, this election had the smallest change in seat count in Canadian history.

oh wow, so a "status quo election" it was, then?  Do you feel the next election will be a real game-changer?

I've given up on projecting Canadian politics haha

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So just as a refreshment, what was the final balance of power after this election?  Usually i follow the Canadian elections but this one came from nowhere and I was too occupied with U.S. issues and COVID to really devote that much attention to our lovely Northern neighbor.... Justin Trudeau will remain P.M.  Did any of the smaller parties make gains?

Not really, this election had the smallest change in seat count in Canadian history.

oh wow, so a "status quo election" it was, then?  Do you feel the next election will be a real game-changer?

Honestly, who knows. This election showed that Canadian politics can't be predicted even a few weeks out - when the campaign was called we all thought a Liberal majority was the most likely outcome, midway through we thought the Conservatives would win, and in the end nothing changed.

I guess generally speaking governing parties weaken over time. If the current parliament lasts the full term, Trudeau will have been in power for 10 years, so good chance that the Liberals lose out of sheer fatigue. But hard to say.

[Oryxslayer]

Annamie Paul resigns as leader to the surprise of nobody.

[mileslunn]

I think getting a majority for any party is a challenge but slightly easier for Liberals than Tories.  For Liberals their real problem is they are too much a big city party and while most Canadians live in urban areas, if you are being strongly rejected throughout much of rural Canada it means you have little room of error.

For Tories, unless they can breakthrough in Quebec, getting a majority will be very tough.  Metro areas are swinging left and while no doubt Tories in a better election can win some suburbs, not sure they can get back to Harper 2011 levels in GTA or GVRD.  Now if Liberals imploded and fall to third, that makes path somewhat easier as it seems 905 prefers Liberals over Tories, but will take Tories over NDP.  At same time rural Quebec does seem somewhat centre-right so probably their best path to a majority is yes win 905 belt but probably not a sweep, just majority of seats there, but also breakthrough in rural Quebec.  So do worse in suburbs than 2011 although better than 2021 while pick up 20 rural Quebec seats.  Not an easy path, but I think that one is more feasible than try to replicate Harper map of 2011.  Also Northern Ontario and remaining rural Atlantic ridings (like Cape Breton Island and rural Newfoundland) I would probably add as those seem to be having favourable swings to right even where Tories fell short. 

At same time I think for 905 to go Tory, they need to gain an extra 5%, but also need NDP to gain an extra 5% too as in most 905 ridings their ceiling is probably low 40s (42-43%) meaning if NDP is too weak, won't be enough to win.

For Liberals, both good and bad news.  Good news is their vote was extremely efficient and with more Canadians living in cities that works in their favour.  Bad news is not a lot of close ridings they can easily flip back, while a 5% drop would cause them to lose a whole whack of ridings.  Liberals otherwise have a higher ceiling in both votes and seats than do Tories, but a lower floor too.  Tories even in worse case scenario still have around 80 seats locked up and would have to be a very bad election to fall below 100 seats.  By contrast Liberals could get as high as 200 seats in a good election, but if bottom fell out from under easily fall below 50 seats.

NDP needs to focus more on urban areas with lots of people under 40 is where I think their potential is.  Repeating what Layton did in 2011 in Quebec seems very unlikely.  Many rural Quebec ridings he won went CAQ so are not natural NDP ones.  And likewise even GTA despite being solid red, 2018 provincially and 2011 federally suggest 416 suburbs and 905 belt are more centrist thus went Tory while downtown Toronto is very left wing.  GVRD unlike GTA looks a bit better for NDP as they are more competitive in suburbs and provincially dominated them in 2020.  Even in Alberta, if there was more strategic voting, I think Edmonton could go largely NDP like it does provincially but obviously tough as need Liberals to fall to really low levels and also need Tories to stay at current levels and I somehow suspect that by next election Kenney will be gone so that should help Tories rebound somewhat in Alberta. 

Greens, no idea what their future holds in store.  Climate change is becoming a bigger and bigger issue which should help, but at same time with all the infighting and already two other progressive parties, not sure much room for them.

PPC I think likely fizzles out as most of their support was over opposition to vaccines and vaccine mandates and by next election good chance that is not an issue.  Still right wing populism is very unpredictable and understanding where they draw votes from and where could lose to is not easy.  Contrary to what some think, not all PPC votes came from Tories.  Many were from traditional non-voters and even some on left who opposed vaccines swung PPC just over that issue.  In Rural Prairies, rise in PPC almost perfectly mirrored Tory drop so yes likely came form them.  But in Northern Ontario, Tory vote went up yet PPC had some of their best showings in province there so suggests most of their votes there came from elsewhere.  No whether Tories can win those over or not hard to say.  Looking across Atlantic gives some clues.  Theresa May in 2017 failed to win over a large chunk of UKIP vote in 2015, but Boris Johnson in 2019 won over many.  In fact a lot of Labour-Tory switchers in 2019 voted UKIP in 2015 so that makes me think right Tory leader and platform could win them over, but not automatic. 

[Geoffrey Howe]

In fact a lot of Labour-Tory switchers in 2019 voted UKIP in 2015 so that makes me think right Tory leader and platform could win them over, but not automatic. 

Definitely not. There were hardly any Labour-->Conservative direct switchers anyway.

In a convoluted way, that echoes the S Ontario "free trade populism" patterns in 1988

Do you mean protectionism by this?

[adma]

Our best swings were in Newfoundland and and Northern Ontario. Not exactly the Bridle Path lol

True, but my point is more about the urban/metropolitan seat conundrum.

[King of Kensington]

Average HH income

Don Valley West  $216,158
Oakville  $177,283
University-Rosedale  $170,832
Eglinton-Lawrence  $162,674
St. Paul's  $155,470

Top Decile

Don Valley West  33.2%
Oakville  29.7%
Eglinton-Lawrence  27.2%
St. Paul's  24.9%
University-Rosedale  24.9%