2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

On the CPC - it seems like they're divided over keeping O'Toole, and it won't be just a referendum over his leadership, but a referendum on vision (centrism vs ideological conservatism). It seems that the CPC membership is more inclined to the latter based on convention votes. So if O'Toole gets dumped and the party moves back to the right, who will they pick?

Everyone says Poilievre but, surely, the CPC brain trust won't let that happen right? He's popular with the base because he's an attack dog, but attack dogs don't make good party leaders.

[n1240]

Brome-Missisquoi flips to Liberals after counting their mail - Liberal candidate leads by 186 votes.

[YL]

On CBC that leaves 5 ridings uncalled:

Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame, NL: Con 598 ahead of Lib
Charleswood-St James-Assiniboia-Headingley, MB, Con 24 ahead of Lib
Vancouver Granville, BC, Lib 258 ahead of NDP
Richmond Centre, BC, Lib 698 ahead of Con
Nanaimo-Ladysmith, BC, NDP 1001 ahead of Con

[Oryxslayer]

On CBC that leaves 5 ridings uncalled:

Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame, NL: Con 598 ahead of Lib
Charleswood-St James-Assiniboia-Headingley, MB, Con 24 ahead of Lib
Vancouver Granville, BC, Lib 258 ahead of NDP
Richmond Centre, BC, Lib 698 ahead of Con
Nanaimo-Ladysmith, BC, NDP 1001 ahead of Con

In Charleswood-St James-Assiniboia-Headingley they put out a statement that they just need to make sure there are 100% no more ballots left, cause that total includes the mail. Looks like the same situation in Vancouver Granville, but I dunno if a similar statement was made.

[DistingFlyer]

Final update to the daily polling average graph:




Looks very similar to the parties' progress in 2019 (minus the good Tory lead at the one-third-to-half-way-mark):

[King of Kensington]

Looking at the Toronto results, the NDP held its ground and came close in Davenport and improved in Parkdale-High Park.  The west end is clearly the most left-wing part of the city.  The other big improvement was Spadina-Fort York (exceptional circumstances).

No change at all in Danforth.  Which kind of confirms my feeling that there isn't anything "special" about Danforth for the NDP, the Layton legacy and Riverdale canvassing model aside.

Also no change at all in the minority-majority working class inner suburbs (York South-Weston, Scarborough Southwest etc.)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Everyone says Poilievre but, surely, the CPC brain trust won't let that happen right? He's popular with the base because he's an attack dog, but attack dogs don't make good party leaders.

Yes, because when I think of the CPC circa 2021, I think of a party where a 'brain trust' has tight control over everything that goes on internally.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Brome-Missisquoi flips to Liberals after counting their mail - Liberal candidate leads by 186 votes.

That means only one seat has flipped in Quebec. Crazy. What a boring election.

[2952-0-0]

If the Conservative grassroots turf O'Toole and elect Poilievre as leader, and assuming that Freeland replaces Trudeau as Liberal leader, then the next election will become a repeat of the US election from 2016. 😱

[DistingFlyer]

Brome-Missisquoi flips to Liberals after counting their mail - Liberal candidate leads by 186 votes.

That means only one seat has flipped in Quebec. Crazy. What a boring election.

If all ridings stay as they presently are, that means only 23 changed hands this time - the fewest in at least a century, and possibly ever (as a percentage of the total).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Everyone says Poilievre but, surely, the CPC brain trust won't let that happen right? He's popular with the base because he's an attack dog, but attack dogs don't make good party leaders.

Yes, because when I think of the CPC circa 2021, I think of a party where a 'brain trust' has tight control over everything that goes on internally.

Harper and his people seem to have a fair bit of control in internal party mechanisms. Knifing Scheer and stonewalling Charest's attempt to run for the leadership, for example.

[StateBoiler]

If the Conservative grassroots turf O'Toole and elect Poilievre as leader, and assuming that Freeland replaces Trudeau as Liberal leader, then the next election will become a repeat of the US election from 2016. 😱

I don't think a ton of Canadians and even a bunch of Liberals have hated Chrystia Freeland for more than 20 years.

[adma]

If you voted or had a vote in Tom Mulcair's leadership review, did you vote in favor of Mulcair or against?

The whole "trying to dodge this discussion" I get it, but the party forcibly threw out their leader for a poor election result 5 years ago and you're now attempting to make the case "election results don't matter" for a guy that could easily be given a pass for a poor result in 2019, but not making any headway at all the 2nd time around. Uh yeah, the party voted at convention election results did matter ousting Mulcair. That's recent history by Canadian political standards. Even if it was just an excuse because some party members didn't like the rightward turn of the party, that was still the excuse.

If the NDP wants to keep him because they like him, fine, it's their party, but $20 says they don't win more than 40 seats next federal election.

And...big effing deal if they don't win more than 40 seats and don't match Mulcair in '15.  Under the circumstance, it's better to have good morale than to make it all about pumping steroids into the seat count.  Of course, they *could* get more than 40 seats; but much as in 2011, that might involve a broader tableau, stumbles by the opposition, etc to seal the deal.  Election outcomes and seat counts aren't just a one-party show.

You want to know about Point A to Point B?  Victory isn't Point B; it's only the "ideal" outcome thereof.  *Election Day* is Point B.  Much as when it comes to the Boston Marathon, the race to the finish line isn't simply about the race to be the *first person across* the finish line.  Or, a song that only reaches #18 on the Hot 100 isn't a "failure" simply because it didn't reach #1.  There's always a nuance to the narrative, which is why it pays to know the "many routes" to Point B, or the side routes, or the interplay among the parties involved.  Under that circumstance, to be puzzled by why Mulcair was deemed an expendable failure and Jagmeet's not is like being puzzled by why one would waste 2 hours on back roads getting to Point B rather than taking half that time by Interstate.  So stop being that bored kid in the back seat saying "are we there yet" because you just want to go to Mount Splashmore and that's it.

[adma]

If the Conservative grassroots turf O'Toole and elect Poilievre as leader, and assuming that Freeland replaces Trudeau as Liberal leader, then the next election will become a repeat of the US election from 2016. 😱

I don't think a ton of Canadians and even a bunch of Liberals have hated Chrystia Freeland for more than 20 years.

Still, she oozes "Laurentian Elite", and the Cons would have a field day with that.

Though the *real* 2016 analogy would be if they elected *Maxime Bernier* as leader.

[Don Vito Corleone]

If the Conservative grassroots turf O'Toole and elect Poilievre as leader, and assuming that Freeland replaces Trudeau as Liberal leader, then the next election will become a repeat of the US election from 2016. 😱

I don't think a ton of Canadians and even a bunch of Liberals have hated Chrystia Freeland for more than 20 years.

Still, she oozes "Laurentian Elite", and the Cons would have a field day with that.

As opposed to the son of Pierre Trudeau, who does no such thing?

[OSR stands with Israel]

If the Conservative grassroots turf O'Toole and elect Poilievre as leader, and assuming that Freeland replaces Trudeau as Liberal leader, then the next election will become a repeat of the US election from 2016. 😱

I don't think a ton of Canadians and even a bunch of Liberals have hated Chrystia Freeland for more than 20 years.

Still, she oozes "Laurentian Elite", and the Cons would have a field day with that.

Though the *real* 2016 analogy would be if they elected *Maxime Bernier* as leader.

Bernier probably would have been their leader for this election if he didnt idiotically bolt the party in 2019

[adma]

If the Conservative grassroots turf O'Toole and elect Poilievre as leader, and assuming that Freeland replaces Trudeau as Liberal leader, then the next election will become a repeat of the US election from 2016. 😱

I don't think a ton of Canadians and even a bunch of Liberals have hated Chrystia Freeland for more than 20 years.

Still, she oozes "Laurentian Elite", and the Cons would have a field day with that.

As opposed to the son of Pierre Trudeau, who does no such thing?

Actually, Justin's electoral saving grace is that he comes across as just the right bit of touchy-feely and light-in-the-loafers--that is, flaky-relatable enough to counteract the Laurentian-Elite stigma.  Or as some people say, his mother's son even more than his father's son.  (Of course, it's those same qualities that fuel Conservative social media's high-minded knocks against him.)  Chrystia, by comparison, is *ultra*-Laurentian: the affluent learned elite class--a haughtier proposition, and a harder sell in the heartland.  Like Iggy without the fatal "just visiting" stigma.

In a way, Chrystia would be to Justin what Hillary is to Bill.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Although, Freeland is a native of Peace River Country in Alberta. If she pulls an Elizabeth Warren and emphasizes her hardscrabble heartland upbringing, it could help to counter her Laurentian elite image.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If you voted or had a vote in Tom Mulcair's leadership review, did you vote in favor of Mulcair or against?

The whole "trying to dodge this discussion" I get it, but the party forcibly threw out their leader for a poor election result 5 years ago and you're now attempting to make the case "election results don't matter" for a guy that could easily be given a pass for a poor result in 2019, but not making any headway at all the 2nd time around. Uh yeah, the party voted at convention election results did matter ousting Mulcair. That's recent history by Canadian political standards. Even if it was just an excuse because some party members didn't like the rightward turn of the party, that was still the excuse.

If the NDP wants to keep him because they like him, fine, it's their party, but $20 says they don't win more than 40 seats next federal election.

And...big effing deal if they don't win more than 40 seats and don't match Mulcair in '15.  Under the circumstance, it's better to have good morale than to make it all about pumping steroids into the seat count.  Of course, they *could* get more than 40 seats; but much as in 2011, that might involve a broader tableau, stumbles by the opposition, etc to seal the deal.  Election outcomes and seat counts aren't just a one-party show.

You want to know about Point A to Point B?  Victory isn't Point B; it's only the "ideal" outcome thereof.  *Election Day* is Point B.  Much as when it comes to the Boston Marathon, the race to the finish line isn't simply about the race to be the *first person across* the finish line.  Or, a song that only reaches #18 on the Hot 100 isn't a "failure" simply because it didn't reach #1.  There's always a nuance to the narrative, which is why it pays to know the "many routes" to Point B, or the side routes, or the interplay among the parties involved.  Under that circumstance, to be puzzled by why Mulcair was deemed an expendable failure and Jagmeet's not is like being puzzled by why one would waste 2 hours on back roads getting to Point B rather than taking half that time by Interstate.  So stop being that bored kid in the back seat saying "are we there yet" because you just want to go to Mount Splashmore and that's it.

Sorry, but this is a load of crap. Maybe it’s unrealistic, but I want to feel like it’s possible to have an NDP government. Actually, I want an NDP government. It felt possible under Layton. It felt possible under Mulcair. It’s a laughable joke under Singh because we’ve now had two elections in a row with the NDP only netting ~25 seats.

[adma]

Although, Freeland is a native of Peace River Country in Alberta. If she pulls an Elizabeth Warren and emphasizes her hardscrabble heartland upbringing, it could help to counter her Laurentian elite image.

Being Arkansas' First Lady didn't help Hillary.

[King of Kensington]

An example of "Americanization" of voting patterns:  York Centre (Russian/Orthodox Jewish) and Etobicoke Centre (white Catholic ethnic) were the top ridings for Conservative and combined CPC+PPC vote share in Toronto.

Meanwhile, the "uniquely Canadian" Chinese CPC vote evaporated.

[adma]

Sorry, but this is a load of crap. Maybe it’s unrealistic, but I want to feel like it’s possible to have an NDP government. Actually, I want an NDP government. It felt possible under Layton. It felt possible under Mulcair. It’s a laughable joke under Singh because we’ve now had two elections in a row with the NDP only netting ~25 seats.

Actually, upon reflection, I wonder if the utter stasis and lack of seat churn this election might be a net leadership saving grace for all parties involved--that is, the consensus being that this election's been so utterly unnecessary, any underperformance-relative-to-expectations is rendered redundant (except maybe for Annamie Paul; but the fix was already there).

As for the NDP; while I'm supportive of the idea of such a government, I'm not so hyper-invested in the notion as to set myself up for sore disappointment; because even within the disappointment, one can sense the rudiments of a potential "fix", and it's not *all* simply a matter of "bad leadership".  (Look; it was even possible to discern such rudiments under Alexa McDonough, even though she herself hadn't a hope in blazes of ascending to Layton/Mulcair contention.) And which is also where looking at and examining the *full* results, without prejudice, is useful--including those of the other parties, PPC not excluded.  It might act as guidelines to future points of attack--or simply to comprehending the depths of the political landscape.  (Like, Avi Lewis might have finished a "disappointing" 3rd in West Van et al, yet he still performed respectably and beyond expectations in what many eye-rolled as a "no-hope" riding--to the point where I'd really like to see the poll-by-polls, and discern how well he did in places like West Van proper, particularly the central part.  Because I think he was "on to something", and there are lessons for the future there.)

This is a tool that mitigates many a disappointing/heartbreaking/anticlimactic result, particularly if one has a good sense of geography and "lay of the land".

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/

[adma]

An example of "Americanization" of voting patterns:  York Centre (Russian/Orthodox Jewish) and Etobicoke Centre (white Catholic ethnic) were the top ridings for Conservative and combined CPC+PPC vote share in Toronto.

Meanwhile, the "uniquely Canadian" Chinese CPC vote evaporated.

Etobicoke Centre & Etobicoke-Lakeshore are weird ones--a greater-than-usual 416 Lib share slide and CPC share rise in both.  And it couldn't just be a "Ford Nation" thing...or could it?  (Yet there wasn't such a dramatic swing in Doug Ford's Etobicoke North.)

Also, Maurice Cormier in Etobicoke Centre getting by far the best PPC result in the 416--what's up with that?  (Though I notice that *both* 416 ridings where PPC got over 5%--this, and Don Valley East--are ridings where the Greens weren't running.)

[Хahar 🤔]

If the Conservative grassroots turf O'Toole and elect Poilievre as leader, and assuming that Freeland replaces Trudeau as Liberal leader, then the next election will become a repeat of the US election from 2016. 😱

I don't think a ton of Canadians and even a bunch of Liberals have hated Chrystia Freeland for more than 20 years.

Still, she oozes "Laurentian Elite", and the Cons would have a field day with that.

As opposed to the son of Pierre Trudeau, who does no such thing?

Actually, Justin's electoral saving grace is that he comes across as just the right bit of touchy-feely and light-in-the-loafers--that is, flaky-relatable enough to counteract the Laurentian-Elite stigma.  Or as some people say, his mother's son even more than his father's son.  (Of course, it's those same qualities that fuel Conservative social media's high-minded knocks against him.)  Chrystia, by comparison, is *ultra*-Laurentian: the affluent learned elite class--a haughtier proposition, and a harder sell in the heartland.  Like Iggy without the fatal "just visiting" stigma.

In a way, Chrystia would be to Justin what Hillary is to Bill.

This analysis makes sense to me. Stranger things have happened (and this is Canada, so strange things happen all the time), but the idea that Chrystia Freeland—a Liberal politician from Toronto who has not lived in Alberta in decades—would have some sort of appeal in Alberta strikes me as something that only Torontonians would believe.

[King of Kensington]

Etobicoke Centre & Etobicoke-Lakeshore are weird ones--a greater-than-usual 416 Lib share slide and CPC share rise in both.  And it couldn't just be a "Ford Nation" thing...or could it?  (Yet there wasn't such a dramatic swing in Doug Ford's Etobicoke North.)

Also, Maurice Cormier in Etobicoke Centre getting by far the best PPC result in the 416--what's up with that?  (Though I notice that *both* 416 ridings where PPC got over 5%--this, and Don Valley East--are ridings where the Greens weren't running.)

Establishmentarian Kingsway is in Lakeshore no?  Etobicoke Centre has some wealth too but it's newer and more "Catholic ethnic."  Doug Ford's home Census Tract is 23% Italian ancestry.