2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Podgy the Bear]

So this election was basically a giant waste of time

Not really for the Liberals.  They just got an additional two years out of this.   Means the Tories will be out of power for at least a decade.

[_.]

It's insane watching the popular vote update on the CBC tracker

Every fifteen seconds the Conservatives are noticeably gaining

I wonder to what extent Canada has politicized mail-in voting. If they don't at all, will we even see an advantage for a party?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Unfortunately, Liberals hold Sherbrooke. Had been excited about the BQ candidate there.

What explains Liberal gains in the GTA in places like Thornhill or Markham-Unionville (where you'd think O'Toole would be a better leader than Scheer?) coupled with fairly impressive results for Conservatives in their non-GTA target seats (currently flipping Peterborough-Kawartha and Kitchener-Conestoga, and within inches in Cambridge and London West)? As an American I expected urban/rural polarization, or educated/uneducated, but what's happening in Ontario seems to be O'Toole getting decent results outside the GTA, even in educated or urban seats, while bombing within it even worse than Scheer.

And, yeah, my understanding for a while has been that Freeland is massively favored to succeed Trudeau whenever he steps aside.

Trudeau has always been attentive to the bottom line of families in the 905, and has even favored them in many ways.
So it's not surprising they'd vote Liberal yet again.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

What a grand waste of everyone's time and money Justin.

Not true, Ruth Ellen is leading in Berthier—Maskinongé

195/274 precincts

REB 36%
BQ’s candidate 33%
Margin: 900 votes

So far, she’s still leading 🧡

[Pericles]

Do the Liberals gain or lose seats? CBC is saying 156 seats right now which is very close to my prediction so I hope it stays that way or goes one seat down.

[Mexican Wolf]

Do the Liberals gain or lose seats? CBC is saying 156 seats right now which is very close to my prediction so I hope it stays that way or goes one seat down.

Now they have the exact seat numbers the LPC and CPC had after 2019: 157 to 121.

[Pericles]

Do the Liberals gain or lose seats? CBC is saying 156 seats right now which is very close to my prediction so I hope it stays that way or goes one seat down.

Now they have the exact seat numbers the LPC and CPC had after 2019: 157 to 121.

Lmao that would also be hilarious.

[H. Ross Peron]

The real Red Wall is the 905 area

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Do the Liberals gain or lose seats? CBC is saying 156 seats right now which is very close to my prediction so I hope it stays that way or goes one seat down.

Now they have the exact seat numbers the LPC and CPC had after 2019: 157 to 121.

Lmao that would also be hilarious.

Shades of 1965, when Lester Pearson called a snap election and it got a very similar result to 1963.

[LimoLiberal]

Lib candidate just moved ahead in Calgary Skyview.

[Lief 🗽]

The real Red Wall is the 905 area

It's wonderful to see. Like if Northern Virginia were 1/5 of the United States population. What a beautiful country.

[adma]

Unfortunately, Liberals hold Sherbrooke. Had been excited about the BQ candidate there.

What explains Liberal gains in the GTA in places like Thornhill or Markham-Unionville (where you'd think O'Toole would be a better leader than Scheer?) coupled with fairly impressive results for Conservatives in their non-GTA target seats (currently flipping Peterborough-Kawartha and Kitchener-Conestoga, and within inches in Cambridge and London West)? As an American I expected urban/rural polarization, or educated/uneducated, but what's happening in Ontario seems to be O'Toole getting decent results outside the GTA, even in educated or urban seats, while bombing within it even worse than Scheer.

If you seek an explanation, it might be through the hybrid nature of Durham riding--that is, as something straddling the frontier btw/GTA diversity and the old-stock "heartland".  And as much as he might have played the "GTA" card, O'Toole is really more of a "heartland" political figurehead at heart--and the result reflects the fact.

[BigSerg]

Erin O'Toole should be fired immediately.

[super6646]

Erin O'Toole should be fired immediately.

Yes we need this sh**t again.

[Lief 🗽]

Erin O'Toole should be fired immediately.

Agreed. All Conservative MPs should be fired immediately (and, one would hope, permanently).

[Pericles]

Erin O'Toole should be fired immediately.

Trudeau is more popular than 2019 despite the bad election call since he led Canada through the pandemic relatively well. This should have been a Liberal majority and O'Toole moving the party to the centre must be part of why it wasn't. I do empathise with the Tories that are furious at Bernier, he likely didn't make the difference but those anti-vax idiots still gave Trudeau a helping hand.

[Pericles]

Also, am I right to say that the NDP has underperformed their polling/expectations yet again? Jagmeet seems well-liked but he hasn't scored a breakthrough for the party, though maybe this is the best the post-2015 NDP can do.

[Continential]

Annamie Paul has been defeated and is still at fourth.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Also, am I right to say that the NDP has underperformed their polling/expectations yet again? Jagmeet seems well-liked but he hasn't scored a breakthrough for the party, though maybe this is the best the post-2015 NDP can do.

Jagmeet is in a very narrow lead in his riding. We may not have to worry about that after tonight.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Annamie Paul comes in fourth in Toronto Centre, winning barely over 60% of the votes of the Conservative candidate.

[Pericles]

Also, am I right to say that the NDP has underperformed their polling/expectations yet again? Jagmeet seems well-liked but he hasn't scored a breakthrough for the party, though maybe this is the best the post-2015 NDP can do.

Jagmeet is in a very narrow lead in his riding. We may not have to worry about that after tonight.

Couldn't he have picked a less competitive riding for himself lol?

[Oryxslayer]

Erin O'Toole should be fired immediately.

Trudeau is more popular than 2019 despite the bad election call since he led Canada through the pandemic relatively well. This should have been a Liberal majority and O'Toole moving the party to the centre must be part of why it wasn't. I do empathise with the Tories that are furious at Bernier, he likely didn't make the difference but those anti-vax idiots still gave Trudeau a helping hand.

Just gonna take issue with the popularity thing - he was popular thanks to COVID and then polls found the approvals collapsed precipitously during this campaign. Both major leaders were really only liked by their partisans in the final polls.

[Thunder98]

Why don't they call COB-CND riding for Small yet? Only 1 poll is still not reporting and Small holds a 2% lead.

[Podgy the Bear]

CBC showing the effect that the PPC played--ends up helping the Liberals and hurting the Tories in Ontario.

[Oryxslayer]

Why don't they call COB-CND riding for Small yet? Only 1 poll is still not reporting and Small holds a 2% lead.

Mail votes, though the lead looks large enough to stick.