Future of Orange County, CA

[Alben Barkley]

It appears that Gavin Newsom won the recall election in Orange County decisively. In fact, Southern California in general (including Riverside County as well, a county Newsom actually lost in 2018!) is just a sea of blue in this most recent election. Despite so many Republicans pinning their hopes for anything resembling a future in the nation's largest state resting on that region and on OC in particular, it appears their support has just absolutely evaporated there.

I honestly would not be surprised at this point if Young Kim and other Orange County Republicans who won last year lose next year. Regardless of whether or not Dems hold the House. I think the most likely outcome for the county and region is that any gains the GOP made there in 2020 will turn out in hindsight to be a "dead cat bounce," and in fact the narrative after the 2018 midterms declaring the GOP in the once staunchly Republican county "dead" was accurate after all in the end.

What are your takes?

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Orange County is going to continue trending left similar to how big wealthy suburban counties on the east coast have. 

Regarding Young Kim and others who just barely won in 2020, I think you are right that she could lose.  I think there's less volatility in elections nowadays, it's largely demographics and turnout.  So districts that are very 50/50 could easily flip back and forth numerous times.   I do wonder how redistricting will work in CA.  I've made numerous threads about it in the redistricting forum that haven't gained traction.  It seems like a big mystery to me.  But given how many 50/50 districts there are in southern CA right now I'd assume minor changes to the lines could result in numerous pickup opportunities for Dems.

[THG]

It’s going to remain within 10-15 points for a few more cycles but overall will definitely trend left.

However, it is worth noting that not all of the ballots in OC or California have been counted, so while it is rather unlikely that the County of Reagan flips, I would also note that it is rather premature to assume that Young Kim will lose or something else like that based on the results so far.

[Vice President Christian Man]

It's becoming more diverse, urbanized, and the suburbs are moving left. I think it could crack 60% in the next decade.

[I’m not Stu]

Does this have any impact on Democrat Lou Correa?

[I’m not Stu]

Does this have any impact on Democrat Lou Correa?

One of my mom's friends works on his staff. And definitely no lol he reps the bluest district in the county maybe it'll let him leave the blue dogs and start voting to the left because of how blue his district is? but honestly, it should have absolutely no impact on him. His district has been safe blue for a while.

A district becoming bluer doesn’t necessarily mean that an incumbent Democrat becomes vulnerable to a primary challenge?

[S019]

I think Orange County is going to continue trending left similar to how big wealthy suburban counties on the east coast have. 

Regarding Young Kim and others who just barely won in 2020, I think you are right that she could lose.  I think there's less volatility in elections nowadays, it's largely demographics and turnout.  So districts that are very 50/50 could easily flip back and forth numerous times.   I do wonder how redistricting will work in CA.  I've made numerous threads about it in the redistricting forum that haven't gained traction.  It seems like a big mystery to me.  But given how many 50/50 districts there are in southern CA right now I'd assume minor changes to the lines could result in numerous pickup opportunities for Dems.

I think Kim's fate will be heavily impacted by redistricting, if she gets one of the blue cities to her north, she'd be disfavored, if she adds red parts of northern OC, she'd be favored, and if it remains roughly the same, I'd say tossup. Steele, on the other hand, should be favored barring massive changes (i.e. throwing Long Beach into the seat), I think Recall won her seat actually.

[I’m not Stu]

I think Orange County is going to continue trending left similar to how big wealthy suburban counties on the east coast have.  

Regarding Young Kim and others who just barely won in 2020, I think you are right that she could lose.  I think there's less volatility in elections nowadays, it's largely demographics and turnout.  So districts that are very 50/50 could easily flip back and forth numerous times.   I do wonder how redistricting will work in CA.  I've made numerous threads about it in the redistricting forum that haven't gained traction.  It seems like a big mystery to me.  But given how many 50/50 districts there are in southern CA right now I'd assume minor changes to the lines could result in numerous pickup opportunities for Dems.

I think Kim's fate will be heavily impacted by redistricting, if she gets one of the blue cities to her north, she'd be disfavored, if she adds red parts of northern OC, she'd be favored, and if it remains roughly the same, I'd say tossup. Steele, on the other hand, should be favored barring massive changes (i.e. throwing Long Beach into the seat), I think Recall won her seat actually.

Isn’t putting Long Beach in CA-48 a gerrymander? Steele’s district is more likely to lose South OC and take in Cypress, all of Westminster, and the majority of Garden Grove. I think Long Beach, Signal Hill, and parts of of Lakewood will be in Barragan’s district.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I think Orange County is going to continue trending left similar to how big wealthy suburban counties on the east coast have. 

Regarding Young Kim and others who just barely won in 2020, I think you are right that she could lose.  I think there's less volatility in elections nowadays, it's largely demographics and turnout.  So districts that are very 50/50 could easily flip back and forth numerous times.   I do wonder how redistricting will work in CA.  I've made numerous threads about it in the redistricting forum that haven't gained traction.  It seems like a big mystery to me.  But given how many 50/50 districts there are in southern CA right now I'd assume minor changes to the lines could result in numerous pickup opportunities for Dems.

I think Kim's fate will be heavily impacted by redistricting, if she gets one of the blue cities to her north, she'd be disfavored, if she adds red parts of northern OC, she'd be favored, and if it remains roughly the same, I'd say tossup. Steele, on the other hand, should be favored barring massive changes (i.e. throwing Long Beach into the seat), I think Recall won her seat actually.

At the moment, Yes is leading in the 48th by 4.4%. Though Newsom also lost it in 2018 by 4.6% at the same time Dems picked up the House seat.

[Xing]

It likely trends further left, probably moving to the 15-20 point range. Kim/Steele might hold on in 2022 thanks to the environment, but against competent Democrats, they're likely gone in 2024.

[I’m not Stu]

Who might beat Steel, Diedre Nguyen? Would Jay Chen beat Young Kim?

[MATTROSE94]

Probably Democratic, though Ron DeSantis or Donald Trump could easily win it against AOC in 2028.