Your county

[memphis]

How is it trending? Shelby County (the only in TN where Kerry did better than Gore) gets more Democratic by the day as conservative suburbanites move out. We just went majority black so don't expect it to go Republican ever again.

[Joe Republic]

Montgomery is something of a swing county.  Although it hasn't voted Republican since 1988, it backed Gore and Kerry by tiny margins.  I honestly couldn't say which way it's headed, but I think it'll remain a swinger for a long while.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Blue Earth is trending Dem, as Mankato gains more and more population and the rest of it loses it. Right now we have almost 2/3 of the county's population.

[Nym90]

Marquette, MI is holding steady as a solid but not overwhelmingly Democratic area. The combination of a college town plus heavy union influence (especially from the iron ore mines in the area) makes it Democratic.

Bush made a campaign stop here in 2004 (which is very rare for us to get a Presidential candidate in our county) and still lost it by about 8 points.

[Jake]

Wyoming County, PA is just as conservative as it has been for the past fifty years and it doesn't look like that is changing at all. The areas around here experiencing growth are wealthier exurban areas which are voting Republican, almost all of which aren't even in the county.

[DownWithTheLeft]

It's hard to say. Bergen County as a whole is probably holding steady at a very slight liberal lean. The outer (suburban sprawl) areas are getting more conservative while the inner (city-like) areas are getting more liberal.

Pretty hard assement, Bergen County truly is the swing county of NJ and I expect Kean to carry it

[nclib]

Orange County, NC is a Democratic County and trended towards Kerry. This is due to it having a university town, Edwards' presence on the ballot, and newcomers from the Northeast.

How is it trending? Shelby County (the only in TN where Kerry did better than Gore) gets more Democratic by the day as conservative suburbanites move out. We just went majority black so don't expect it to go Republican ever again.

I was looking through Presidential Results by Congressional District and found that TN-9 trended strongly towards Kerry (even moreso than Shelby County). Is this just because of white flight, or did Kerry win over any former Bush voters?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

How is it trending? Shelby County (the only in TN where Kerry did better than Gore) gets more Democratic by the day as conservative suburbanites move out. We just went majority black so don't expect it to go Republican ever again.

You seem awfully excited about our tax base moving out.

It won't seem so funny when you too have to move to Fayette, Tipton, or Desoto.

[Alcon]

How is it trending? Shelby County (the only in TN where Kerry did better than Gore) gets more Democratic by the day as conservative suburbanites move out. We just went majority black so don't expect it to go Republican ever again.

You seem awfully excited about our tax base moving out.

It won't seem so funny when you too have to move to Fayette, Tipton, or Desoto.

I don't see much excitement in his post.  I just see him stating things that I don't think anyone disagrees with, really (although I'm sure it will go GOP again EVENTUALLY).

[memphis]

I'm not especially thrilled by white flight but I don't see any way to stop it.  It definately is responsible for the changing politics in TN-9, which is gerrymandered to be uber-black and uber-Democratic, and Shelby County as a whole. As for me, you couldn't pay me enough to live outside of the 240 loop, let alone in the exurban hell that is developing in DeSoto, Fayette, and Tipton counties. My mom taught high school in Fayette County for 25 years and I have distant family in DeSoto. Words cannot begin to express how nauseating these places are.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I'm not especially thrilled by white flight but I don't see any way to stop it.  It definately is responsible for the changing politics in TN-9, which is gerrymandered to be uber-black and uber-Democratic, and Shelby County as a whole. As for me, you couldn't pay me enough to live outside of the 240 loop, let alone in the exurban hell that is developing in DeSoto, Fayette, and Tipton counties. My mom taught high school in Fayette County for 25 years and I have distant family in DeSoto. Words cannot begin to express how nauseating these places are.

Isn't TN-9 Harold Ford, Jr.'s District?  Its also electing a White Democratic Congressman this year isn't it?  The Almanac of American Politics shows that Bush won 36% here in 2000 and only 30% in 2004 - a surprising shift considering he won Tennessee with 51% and then 56% of the vote.  Also, John Kerry did worse than Al Gore in every other Tennessee District apart from here.

[memphis]

I'm not especially thrilled by white flight but I don't see any way to stop it.  It definately is responsible for the changing politics in TN-9, which is gerrymandered to be uber-black and uber-Democratic, and Shelby County as a whole. As for me, you couldn't pay me enough to live outside of the 240 loop, let alone in the exurban hell that is developing in DeSoto, Fayette, and Tipton counties. My mom taught high school in Fayette County for 25 years and I have distant family in DeSoto. Words cannot begin to express how nauseating these places are.

Isn't TN-9 Harold Ford, Jr.'s District?  Its also electing a White Democratic Congressman this year isn't it?  The Almanac of American Politics shows that Bush won 36% here in 2000 and only 30% in 2004 - a surprising shift considering he won Tennessee with 51% and then 56% of the vote.  Also, John Kerry did worse than Al Gore in every other Tennessee District apart from here.

Yeah, I live in Jr's district. There were several black candidates in the Democratic primary so a White Jewish guy won with 31% of the vote. Jr's brother, a high school dropout with no political experience, is running as a independent, but he is not expected to have too much of an impact.  what's left of white areas in TN-9 tend to be older, middle class to upscale, and Republican, but they are outnumbered by African American neighborhoods that are everything from decaying urban ghetto to new McMansions, but all overwhelmingly Democrat. Newer white suburbs have been gerrymandered out into staunchly conservative TN-7.

[True Democrat]

Allegheny County is fairly stagnant, although possibly a slight trend to the Democrats as the inner suburbs become more liberal.

[MasterJedi]

Milwaukee will stay a firmly Democratic county until the Republicans and Democrats flip. That doesn't mean that until then the city will be solid Dem. and the suburbs will be solid Rep.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm not especially thrilled by white flight but I don't see any way to stop it.  It definately is responsible for the changing politics in TN-9, which is gerrymandered to be uber-black and uber-Democratic, and Shelby County as a whole. As for me, you couldn't pay me enough to live outside of the 240 loop, let alone in the exurban hell that is developing in DeSoto, Fayette, and Tipton counties. My mom taught high school in Fayette County for 25 years and I have distant family in DeSoto. Words cannot begin to express how nauseating these places are.

yay, you rule for hating suburbs as much as me!

[memphis]

I'm not especially thrilled by white flight but I don't see any way to stop it.  It definately is responsible for the changing politics in TN-9, which is gerrymandered to be uber-black and uber-Democratic, and Shelby County as a whole. As for me, you couldn't pay me enough to live outside of the 240 loop, let alone in the exurban hell that is developing in DeSoto, Fayette, and Tipton counties. My mom taught high school in Fayette County for 25 years and I have distant family in DeSoto. Words cannot begin to express how nauseating these places are.

yay, you rule for hating suburbs as much as me!

It's funny, but one of my favorite neighborhoods, Midtown Memphis, is an old early 20th century suburb. I just feel like areas need at least a few decades before they stop feeling so sterile. East Memphis (1950s and 1960s suburbia) is also really nice even though it's very conservative. The trouble with areas built recently is that there seems to have been no planning. Subdivisions and strip malls pop up randomly along arteries that are way too big. Anyhow, we've had this discussion eight thousand times, so let's please not start the "sububz suk!!!111; no citys r 2 scary" stuff. I think we all know how everybody feels.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'm not especially thrilled by white flight but I don't see any way to stop it.  It definately is responsible for the changing politics in TN-9, which is gerrymandered to be uber-black and uber-Democratic, and Shelby County as a whole. As for me, you couldn't pay me enough to live outside of the 240 loop, let alone in the exurban hell that is developing in DeSoto, Fayette, and Tipton counties. My mom taught high school in Fayette County for 25 years and I have distant family in DeSoto. Words cannot begin to express how nauseating these places are.

yay, you rule for hating suburbs as much as me!

It's funny, but one of my favorite neighborhoods, Midtown Memphis, is an old early 20th century suburb. I just feel like areas need at least a few decades before they stop feeling so sterile. East Memphis (1950s and 1960s suburbia) is also really nice even though it's very conservative. The trouble with areas built recently is that there seems to have been no planning. Subdivisions and strip malls pop up randomly along arteries that are way too big. Anyhow, we've had this discussion eight thousand times, so let's please not start the "sububz suk!!!111; no citys r 2 scary" stuff. I think we all know how everybody feels.

EXACTLY!  Bad developers and their accomplices in government develop land for temporary profit rather than long-term sustainability.  It is sad to see neighborhoods destroyed by this constant cycle of destruction that has been going on for at least 40 years.

[memphis]

Don, what part of town do you live in? I'm in East Memphis, near Walnut Grove and White Station.

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[quote author=HumanRights® (htmldon)
EXACTLY!  Bad developers and their accomplices in government develop land for temporary profit rather than long-term sustainability.  It is sad to see neighborhoods destroyed by this constant cycle of destruction that has been going on for at least 40 years.
[/quote]

Aren't you in the wrong party?

[Dr. Cynic]

Allegheny County has long been Democratic... My old county of Washington hadn't supported a Republican for President since I believe Herbert Hoover... If I'm incorrect, I'll amend the error.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Don, what part of town do you live in? I'm in East Memphis, near Walnut Grove and White Station.

Northeast Memphis, near Whitten.

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Keep in mind our local Democratic party nominated a candidate just a few years ago that wanted to sell off one of our most treasured possessions - a large public park - to developers to build luxury homes.  No thanks, that's not my bag.

[TomC]

Developers, like any "good" lobby, suck up to whatever party is in power in an area. Plenty in both parties do their bidding.

[Nym90]

Developers, like any "good" lobby, suck up to whatever party is in power in an area. Plenty in both parties do their bidding.

Exactly.

The idea that the Democrats are somehow the party in favor of selling off public land to private developers and businesses and that Republicans the party in favor of land conservation and environmental stewardship is laughable at best and intellecutally dishonest at worst.

[Smash255]

Nassau county NY, took a hard Dem shift from 1988 to 2000, in 04 moved back towards the GOP (Kerry won by 5.6%) but much of that was due to the 9/11 impact.  No question moved back left since then to where it was in 00, and probably has moved a bit more Dem than that.  GOP still has a registration advantage, but that has dropped dramatically, and basicaally the inverse of the south.  Republicans cross party lines much more often than Dems do, and Independents tend to vote Dem.  A 50/50 election in 08 will likley produce similar results than 96 & 00 did when Clinton & gore won by slightly under 20 points, (maybe a little more Dem).  Locally was once very GOP, now mostly Dem, Dem County Exec, Dem Leislature, Dem DA, Dem Comptroller.  Spitzer & Clinton will both win in landslides (as wilL Cuomo) only district that is competitive on LI is the one with the lone republican in it (NY-3, my district).  Count use to be fiscally conservative socially moderate, now is fiscally center-left, socially liberal. 

Basically was the poster child for decades of the Republican suburb, now is the poster child of what the hard right turn in the GOP has done to the GOP in the suburbs (especially big city suburbs)

[True Democrat]

Allegheny County has long been Democratic... My old county of Washington hadn't supported a Republican for President since I believe Herbert Hoover... If I'm incorrect, I'll amend the error.

Washington County is trending hugely Republican.  Look at even Mondale's numbers compared to Kerry's.  And Nixon carried Washington County in 1972 I believe.