Is McAuliffe really that popular? He's a guy that didn't get 50% against Ken Cuccinelli. Now I know that VA has moved at least a bit to the left since then, but his failure to get 50% in 2013 suggests he's not real popular on a personal level.
He's a safer candidate for the Democrats than some of the alternatives, but I don't see him as so popular to where a Republican in a Republican year couldn't beat him, however slightly.
Not sure how it's prudent to go back to his 2013 margin before he was actual governor for 4 years though. He was more of an unknown at that point.
He wasn't that unknown. IIRC he attempted to get the nomination in 2009 but lost at a convention to Creigh Deeds. The knock then was that he was a Northerner and a NOVA candidate who was close to the Clintons.
A lot has changed since then. VA is a lean D state and a trending D state, but the Dems have been in power for 16 of the last 20 years. McAuliffe benefits from some of to, but I don't see him as having the kind of PERSONAL popularity to counter a strong R trend.. Mark Warner almost lost in 2014. McAuliffe has never gotten 48 percent of the VA vote. We're going to see how much the VA landscape has changed long-term this year.
