VA Emerson: McAuliffe +3
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  VA Emerson: McAuliffe +3
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Author Topic: VA Emerson: McAuliffe +3  (Read 1158 times)
Matty
boshembechle
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« on: September 16, 2021, 05:49:54 PM »




Seems about right
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2021, 06:14:28 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2021, 06:31:03 PM by Skill and Chance »

Not bad for McAuliffe.  Emerson didn't overestimate Biden at all in 2020. 
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2021, 06:32:21 PM »

Not bad for McAuliffe.  Emerson didn't overestimate Biden at all in 2020. 

If McAuliffe wins by anything less than Northam '17, that's a bad sign for Democrats.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2021, 06:43:12 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2021, 06:46:26 PM by Skill and Chance »

Not bad for McAuliffe.  Emerson didn't overestimate Biden at all in 2020. 

If McAuliffe wins by anything less than Northam '17, that's a bad sign for Democrats.

That's definitely not how off-year elections in VA work.  McAuliffe himself is the only person of the same party as the president to win VA-GOV in over 40 years. 

2022 will be an R leaning year, but this is something else entirely.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2021, 07:52:19 PM »

Not bad for McAuliffe.  Emerson didn't overestimate Biden at all in 2020. 

If McAuliffe wins by anything less than Northam '17, that's a bad sign for Democrats.

Your constant trolling is just getting exhausting at this point
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kwabbit
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2021, 11:03:15 PM »

This race is lean Dem af. Like almost all of the polling has had it in that category, with not too many outliers or changes in the average to cause reevaluation.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2021, 11:35:28 PM »

Not bad for McAuliffe.  Emerson didn't overestimate Biden at all in 2020.  

If McAuliffe wins by anything less than Northam '17, that's a bad sign for Democrats.

McAuliffe could win by 20% and you'd still be saying that's a bad sign for Democrats.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2021, 11:54:59 PM »

Is McAuliffe really that popular?  He's a guy that didn't get 50% against Ken Cuccinelli.  Now I know that VA has moved at least a bit to the left since then, but his failure to get 50% in 2013 suggests he's not real popular on a personal level.

He's a safer candidate for the Democrats than some of the alternatives, but I don't see him as so popular to where a Republican in a Republican year couldn't beat him, however slightly.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2021, 04:09:47 AM »

I actually don't believe the margin will be this close. At least double the margin.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2021, 05:35:12 AM »

Is McAuliffe really that popular?  He's a guy that didn't get 50% against Ken Cuccinelli.  Now I know that VA has moved at least a bit to the left since then, but his failure to get 50% in 2013 suggests he's not real popular on a personal level.

He's a safer candidate for the Democrats than some of the alternatives, but I don't see him as so popular to where a Republican in a Republican year couldn't beat him, however slightly.

Not sure how it's prudent to go back to his 2013 margin before he was actual governor for 4 years though. He was more of an unknown at that point.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2021, 06:24:54 AM »

Is McAuliffe really that popular?  He's a guy that didn't get 50% against Ken Cuccinelli.  Now I know that VA has moved at least a bit to the left since then, but his failure to get 50% in 2013 suggests he's not real popular on a personal level.

He's a safer candidate for the Democrats than some of the alternatives, but I don't see him as so popular to where a Republican in a Republican year couldn't beat him, however slightly.

Not sure how it's prudent to go back to his 2013 margin before he was actual governor for 4 years though. He was more of an unknown at that point.

He wasn't that unknown.  IIRC he attempted to get the nomination in 2009 but lost at a convention to Creigh Deeds.  The knock then was that he was a Northerner and a NOVA candidate who was close to the Clintons.

A lot has changed since then.  VA is a lean D state and a trending D state, but the Dems have been in power for 16 of the last 20 years.  McAuliffe benefits from some of to, but I don't see him as having the kind of PERSONAL popularity to counter a strong R trend..  Mark Warner almost lost in 2014.  McAuliffe has never gotten 48 percent of the VA vote.  We're going to see how much the VA landscape has changed long-term this year.
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slothdem
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2021, 08:27:49 AM »

Is McAuliffe really that popular?  He's a guy that didn't get 50% against Ken Cuccinelli.  Now I know that VA has moved at least a bit to the left since then, but his failure to get 50% in 2013 suggests he's not real popular on a personal level.

He's a safer candidate for the Democrats than some of the alternatives, but I don't see him as so popular to where a Republican in a Republican year couldn't beat him, however slightly.

Not sure how it's prudent to go back to his 2013 margin before he was actual governor for 4 years though. He was more of an unknown at that point.

He wasn't that unknown.  IIRC he attempted to get the nomination in 2009 but lost at a convention to Creigh Deeds.  The knock then was that he was a Northerner and a NOVA candidate who was close to the Clintons.

A lot has changed since then.  VA is a lean D state and a trending D state, but the Dems have been in power for 16 of the last 20 years.  McAuliffe benefits from some of to, but I don't see him as having the kind of PERSONAL popularity to counter a strong R trend..  Mark Warner almost lost in 2014.  McAuliffe has never gotten 48 percent of the VA vote.  We're going to see how much the VA landscape has changed long-term this year.

This is the kicker here. These past two decades have been incredibility prosperous ones for the Commonwealth. The state has risen by pretty much any metric during this time period with significant population growth, increased household income, and higher quality of life then it had before. Additionally, the state has lost some of its rural character, and the urban crescent increasingly resembles the high-QOL northeast. Just since democrats gained full control, a ton of money has been dumped into education and other social services, while the tax burden has remained low.

No reason to change horses when the horse you're on is winning the race.
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TheTide
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2021, 08:37:48 AM »

McAwful is McAwful, but McAwful should still win.
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Pollster
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2021, 08:39:16 AM »

Link?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2021, 08:53:00 AM »

I guess Woodbury prediction in VA is wrong too
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2021, 08:55:16 AM »

I’m very confident that McAuliffe will win, not because he’s some god-tier candidate, but because Virginia is far gone enough for Republicans that a good environment isn’t going to be enough for them to win it.
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Person Man
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2021, 10:30:56 AM »

I’m very confident that McAuliffe will win, not because he’s some god-tier candidate, but because Virginia is far gone enough for Republicans that a good environment isn’t going to be enough for them to win it.

Unless the Democratic Party is on the verge of collapse, they will win in Virginia because of the shenanigans in Texas. If Democrats can’t hold on to Virginia, 2022 is 2010-tier. It might be like 1894 where it convinces the current Democratic president not to run.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2021, 12:34:15 PM »

Is McAuliffe really that popular?  He's a guy that didn't get 50% against Ken Cuccinelli.  Now I know that VA has moved at least a bit to the left since then, but his failure to get 50% in 2013 suggests he's not real popular on a personal level.

He's a safer candidate for the Democrats than some of the alternatives, but I don't see him as so popular to where a Republican in a Republican year couldn't beat him, however slightly.

Not sure how it's prudent to go back to his 2013 margin before he was actual governor for 4 years though. He was more of an unknown at that point.

He wasn't that unknown.  IIRC he attempted to get the nomination in 2009 but lost at a convention to Creigh Deeds.  The knock then was that he was a Northerner and a NOVA candidate who was close to the Clintons.

A lot has changed since then.  VA is a lean D state and a trending D state, but the Dems have been in power for 16 of the last 20 years.  McAuliffe benefits from some of to, but I don't see him as having the kind of PERSONAL popularity to counter a strong R trend..  Mark Warner almost lost in 2014.  McAuliffe has never gotten 48 percent of the VA vote.  We're going to see how much the VA landscape has changed long-term this year.

He's been in one election...
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2021, 12:41:04 PM »

Rs have no chance in 304 states and they are barely hanging on in OH, OA, NC, MO and FL

Because R party is only about Trump whom is an Insurrectionists
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Person Man
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« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2021, 12:59:03 PM »

Is McAuliffe really that popular?  He's a guy that didn't get 50% against Ken Cuccinelli.  Now I know that VA has moved at least a bit to the left since then, but his failure to get 50% in 2013 suggests he's not real popular on a personal level.

He's a safer candidate for the Democrats than some of the alternatives, but I don't see him as so popular to where a Republican in a Republican year couldn't beat him, however slightly.

Not sure how it's prudent to go back to his 2013 margin before he was actual governor for 4 years though. He was more of an unknown at that point.

He wasn't that unknown.  IIRC he attempted to get the nomination in 2009 but lost at a convention to Creigh Deeds.  The knock then was that he was a Northerner and a NOVA candidate who was close to the Clintons.

A lot has changed since then.  VA is a lean D state and a trending D state, but the Dems have been in power for 16 of the last 20 years.  McAuliffe benefits from some of to, but I don't see him as having the kind of PERSONAL popularity to counter a strong R trend..  Mark Warner almost lost in 2014.  McAuliffe has never gotten 48 percent of the VA vote.  We're going to see how much the VA landscape has changed long-term this year.

He's been in one election...

That doesn’t mean anything. Florida is a tilt R state and Republicans has been in power there 24 of the last 24 years. If you didn’t know the margins of the races when Obama was on the ballot, you would think Florida was as conservative as Wyoming.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2021, 05:39:40 PM »

I guess we still haven’t learned our lesson, have we?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2021, 07:36:24 PM »

I guess we still haven’t learned our lesson, have we?

On the other hand, the last 2 Emerson polls in 2020 were Biden +4 and Biden +5, which was amazingly accurate. 
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2021, 10:42:40 AM »

McAuliffe winning by 3 would still confirm that VA is beyond gone for Republicans but it would also be a more-than-respectable GOP performance in an extremely inflexible blue state that routinely elects Democrats for federal office by double digits. Even before Trump, VA had some of the most engaged D base voters of any state (major reason for McAuliffe's 2013 win), although that’s admittedly becoming more of a national trend as the D base becomes more and more reliable/high-propensity.

It’s already a major uphill battle (requiring a pitch-perfect GOP campaign) to get the state voting like in 2013 again, it’s simply a bridge too far to expect any Republican to actually win it. Sometimes the math just isn’t there, and even a very capable candidate isn’t going to fend off a tide of extremely unfavorable outside factors that aren’t related to the race itself (blue state partisanship, record D intensity/engagement, lopsided demographic shifts, etc.).

Frankly, assuming Youngkin loses, I think even a hypothetical Hogan (R) vs. Brown (D) race in this year in this environment would have resulted in a D victory in this state.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2021, 02:21:35 PM »

I guess we still haven’t learned our lesson, have we?
Isn't this kind of selective? They had Newsom up 60-40 in their final poll which seems like it'll be really close to the final result.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #24 on: October 25, 2021, 03:50:35 PM »

Not bad for McAuliffe.  Emerson didn't overestimate Biden at all in 2020. 

If McAuliffe wins by anything less than Northam '17, that's a bad sign for Democrats.

That's not necessarily true, but if McAuliffe only won by 3 points, like this poll suggests, then that would be eerie foreshadowing for Democrats. I think if the margin is more than 5 points they don't really need to worry too much since Youngkin is more popular than Trump in NOVA for obvious reasons, but if it's less, then that's cause for concern.
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