Is McAuliffe really that popular? He's a guy that didn't get 50% against Ken Cuccinelli. Now I know that VA has moved at least a bit to the left since then, but his failure to get 50% in 2013 suggests he's not real popular on a personal level.
He's a safer candidate for the Democrats than some of the alternatives, but I don't see him as so popular to where a Republican in a Republican year couldn't beat him, however slightly.
Not sure how it's prudent to go back to his 2013 margin before he was actual governor for 4 years though. He was more of an unknown at that point.
He wasn't that unknown. IIRC he attempted to get the nomination in 2009 but lost at a convention to Creigh Deeds. The knock then was that he was a Northerner and a NOVA candidate who was close to the Clintons.
A lot has changed since then. VA is a lean D state and a trending D state, but the Dems have been in power for 16 of the last 20 years. McAuliffe benefits from some of to, but I don't see him as having the kind of PERSONAL popularity to counter a strong R trend.. Mark Warner almost lost in 2014. McAuliffe has never gotten 48 percent of the VA vote. We're going to see how much the VA landscape has changed long-term this year.
This is the kicker here. These past two decades have been incredibility prosperous ones for the Commonwealth. The state has risen by pretty much any metric during this time period with significant population growth, increased household income, and higher quality of life then it had before. Additionally, the state has lost some of its rural character, and the urban crescent increasingly resembles the high-QOL northeast. Just since democrats gained full control, a ton of money has been dumped into education and other social services, while the tax burden has remained low.
No reason to change horses when the horse you're on is winning the race.
