Is McAuliffe really that popular? He's a guy that didn't get 50% against Ken Cuccinelli. Now I know that VA has moved at least a bit to the left since then, but his failure to get 50% in 2013 suggests he's not real popular on a personal level.
He's a safer candidate for the Democrats than some of the alternatives, but I don't see him as so popular to where a Republican in a Republican year couldn't beat him, however slightly.
Not sure how it's prudent to go back to his 2013 margin before he was actual governor for 4 years though. He was more of an unknown at that point.