Predict Newsom's margin of victory in 2022 (over a GOPer)

[Sir Mohamed]

By how much do you think Gavin Newsom will win reelection 2022 if a GOPer makes it into the runoff.

My prediction is +23, so pretty similar to 2018.

[Calthrina950]

Probably somewhere between 20-25%. One thing that the recall has demonstrated is that the Republican Party is dead in California.

[Holmes]

It'll be similar to the final results of the recall, unless something big happens in the next year, which I doubt.

[President Johnson]

Before the recall, I thought his margin would somewhat decrease, maybe to 58-42% or so. Now I'm not so sure. If Elder his the challenger, I wouldn't be surprised to see Newsom winning 64-36%.

[Non Swing Voter]

Before the recall, I thought his margin would somewhat decrease, maybe to 58-42% or so. Now I'm not so sure. If Elder his the challenger, I wouldn't be surprised to see Newsom winning 64-36%.

Definitely feels like Elder will be the challenger and that people are staying in their partisan corners so this is probably 100% accurate.