Why the CA-Recall results are bad for Democrats. (user search)
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  Why the CA-Recall results are bad for Democrats. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why the CA-Recall results are bad for Democrats.  (Read 3841 times)
kwabbit
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,800


« on: September 15, 2021, 03:20:31 PM »

It is pretty dumb and uninformed to say that election night results in CA are bad for Dems.

CA has lots of mail ballots that arrive and are counted after election day (as long as they are mailed on/before election day). In the past, those votes have typically skewed Democratic. To the extent that is the case this time around, then Dem performance may well improve significantly after all of the votes are actually counted.

So wait until the votes are counted to draw your conclusions.

Or have a pie to the face. Your choice.

OK, I guess you're going with the pie.

During the 2020 election, the Early VBM was heavily Dem, the Election Day was heavily R, and the late VBM was in the middle, but still more R than D on balance, enough to hand some R's leads in close House races. Everything about the Early VBM and election day partisan breakdowns would suggest the case is the same, with late VBM pushing no down to 62% percent.

The previous partisan breakdowns, pre-COVID, are essentially useless because those elections occurred before all of anti-VBM rhetoric from the right.
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