It is pretty dumb and uninformed to say that election night results in CA are bad for Dems.
CA has lots of mail ballots that arrive and are counted after election day (as long as they are mailed on/before election day). In the past, those votes have typically skewed Democratic. To the extent that is the case this time around, then Dem performance may well improve significantly after all of the votes are actually counted.
So wait until the votes are counted to draw your conclusions.
Or have a pie to the face. Your choice.
OK, I guess you're going with the pie.
As you said, that was in the past. Sure, it is possible it could be different this time around. That is exactly the point. That is the reason to not jump to conclusions. It is possible that SirWoodbury's point could be valid, if he waited a week or two to make it. But he just went ahead and made it anyway, without waiting to see what the actual results are.
So far the same is happening in the recall. I believe the earliest results (when mail-ins were all we had) had No getting over 70%. When I last looked at the NBC results, they had No up 67-33 with ~60% in and now it's 64-36 with ~70% of (estimated) votes counted.
I didn't watch the results when they came in, so I will assume your observation about the trend is correct. Even assuming that, however, it doesn't mean that late breaking ballots won't skew more Dem. In the past, the reason for late breaking ballots skewing more Dem is that they tended to be from younger and more sporadic voters. It is plausible that the first mail ballots could have skewed more R, because those were disproportionately from engaged/angry Republicans who were eager to vote (and who were showing up in the earlier polls which had it closer). Whereas later ballots may be cast by voters who engaged later and were not super-invested in the recall.
Again, I am not saying this is
necessarily true. Just that it
may well be. And so we should wait to see the actual results before jumping to premature conclusions.
