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« on: September 15, 2021, 04:49:16 AM » |
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Individual races have their own quirks, so the underperformance needs to be big to matter. And even then, one race can be excused, if there's a pattern of underperformances that signals a wave. That's why the 2018 wave was obvious once we kept on seeing double-digit overperformances by Democrats. To be fair though, Democrats have a much more vulnerable majority than Republicans in 2018 or Democrats in 2010. Republicans don't need a big swing to take Congress but a wave election isn't looking inevitable.
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