2021 Canadian general election prediction thread

[jaichind]

LPC    138 (including Kevin Vuong)
CPC    125
BQ       37
NDP     35
GPC       3

LPC narrowly wins popular vote on PPC surge.  PPC vote mostly are in safe CPC seats so it does not hurt CPC that much.  Tactical voting goes against LPC while BQ benefits from anti-LPC tactical voting.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'll just go ahead and call a majority for the Grits.

[thumb21]

Trudeau is still ahead in preferred prime minister so I'm leaning more towards it being another Liberal minority but the range of realistic outcomes seems fairly big.

I'll stick with this, I think the overall seat numbers won't be too different to 2019. The Liberals and the Tories will exchange a few seats here and there. I could also see a swing in either direction from that but at this point, a Liberal majority seems more likely than a Tory minority. I also think the Liberals will probably win the popular vote, but that the Tory vote will become more efficient.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

LPC: 141
CPC: 133
NDP: 34
BQ: 27
GPC: 2
Kevin Vuong: 1

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/BenWoodfinden/status/1439740687017291783

I resemble that remark

[Oryxslayer]

True hot take time: Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is among the best PPC results despite it having none of their favorable demos because Tories went purple.

[Roblox]

Guessing

LPC: 162
CPC: 110
NDP: 34
BQ: 31
GP: 1

[Crumpets]

Haven't paid super close attention to this election, but might as well make a prediction anyways.

Overall, Liberal minority. If I have any hot take, it's that PPC is both under-polled and will experience election day drop-off in favor of Tories, resulting in a wash overall.

33% CPC
31% LPC
19% NDP
7% PPC
7% BQ
3% GP

I don't know if the math works out for this and I have no experience extrapolating PV numbers to seat allocations in Canada, but:

LPC: 142
CPC: 131
BQ: 33
NDP: 31
GP: 1

[Crumpets]

Here are the averages of Atlas's predictions so far (when ranges are given, I've just used the average of that range):

LPC: 141.5
CPC: 127.3
NDP: 34.7
BQ: 32.2
GP: 1.7
PPC: 0.0
Other: 0.3

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Narrow Liberal popular vote win; Liberal minority, NDP gains more than they lose, Tory losses in the west outweigh any gains in the east. PPC and the other parties like them won’t get any, but will be enough to help the Grits and Dippers gain a few that will be lost next time. Greens will get two ridings: May’s and the one in Ontario that people have been speculating about (not Paul’s riding). Idk about Quebec other than that my hot take is that the Notorious REB will regain her seat.

https://twitter.com/BenWoodfinden/status/1439740687017291783

I resemble that remark

That’s the nice part about living out west. I don’t have to stay up as late.

[Continential]

LPC 171 seats
CPC 103 seats
NDP 32 seats
BQ 30 seats
GPC 1 seat
PPC 1 seat

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

32% LPC
31% CPC
20% NDP
7% PPC
6% BQ
3% GP

LPC: 149
CPC: 127
BQ: 34
NDP: 27
GP: 1

[BigSerg]

Realistic prediction

LPC    135
CPC    129
BQ       37
NDP     35
GPC       2

My hope

LPC    115
CPC    137
BQ       39
NDP     45
GPC       2

[Nyvin]

If global education polarization is really a thing, I'd expect Liberal loses in Newfoundland and New Brunswick, and gains in Ontario and BC.

[Lief 🗽]

If global education polarization is really a thing, I'd expect Liberal loses in Newfoundland and New Brunswick, and gains in Ontario and BC.

Great prediction.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So I went by region and my best guess is

LPC 154

CPC 116

NDP 34

BQ 29

GRN 2

IND 1

So no Liberal majority (unless the CPC collapses harder than expected) and the biggest winner in seats is the NDP

I need to stop overestimating the NDP but it looks like I wasn't too far off. What a pointless election

[Pericles]

It's looking like a Liberal minority. The NDP keeps on underperforming their poll numbers so that should happen again, the PPC might underperform a bit too, and the Tories will do better than they're polling in Alberta and the Prairies. So something like this-
Liberal: 146-11 32%(-1%)
Conservative: 134+13 34%(_)
BQ: 29-3 7%(-1%)
NDP: 28+4 18%(+2%)
Green: 1-2 3%(-4%)
PPC: 0_ 5%(+3%)
338 seats
170 for majority

I might end up regretting this, but it's now looking to me like a strong Liberal minority (a majority looks just barely out of reach). For seats, I'll say 155 Liberals to 124 Conservatives, though I could see it going into the low 160s. The NDP will underperform, but I'll say 29 seats now and 17% of the vote, while the BQ goes up one to 30 seats. The PV will be a virtual tie, with the Liberals edging it, 33%-33%.

I'm not regretting it.

[DC Al Fine]

Reupping my prediction along with some takes. Some takes are hotter than others.

1) The Liberals will win more seats than the Tories, but Liberal + NDP will fall short of a majority.

2) The Liberals will win the popular vote.

3) The Tories will do much better than expected in Atlantic Canada but not elsewhere, leading to hot takes galore from all sides early in the night that don't come to fruition.

4) Maxime Bernier wins Beauce fairly comfortably

5) The PPC makes a breakthrough somewhere and wins 2-3 seats (my bet is on rural southwestern Ontario)

6) The Greens will be reduced to one seat

7) The NDP will breakthrough in Toronto and win 2-3 seats

8 ) The NDP will come out of nowhere to win a seat most people weren't expecting

9) The Tories will save at least one seat thanks to vote splitting on the right. (Most likely Banff-Airdrie, but possibly somewhere else)

10a) One or both of the Liberal candidates fired for sexual impropriety will win

10b) And they will make the difference between a working majority and a minority for the Liberals/NDP

In keeping with tradition I got most of my predictions wrong.

[BigSerg]

Conservatives win the vote with a 300,000-vote lead, but the Liberal Party stays in power

This.

[Nyvin]

If global education polarization is really a thing, I'd expect Liberal loses in Newfoundland and New Brunswick, and gains in Ontario and BC.

Great prediction.

Thanks!  Was last minute I guess, but still turned out pretty good.