2021 Canadian general election prediction thread

[Continential]

What do you think will happen?

[mileslunn]

Tentatively, I see a weaker Liberal minority as most likely outcome.  I think Tories win popular vote again, but fewer seats.  That being said both Tory minority and Liberal majority are still possible depending on how final week goes.  Tory majority or an NDP win or not however.  I will give an exact seat prediction on Sunday.

[jaichind]

LPC minority with roughly same number of seats or a few less than 2019

[DC Al Fine]

Liberal > Tory
Liberal + NDP < 170

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Status quo, essentially. Liberal minority. Might try to make a seat prediction (totals by party), but I wouldn’t count on it.

[jaichind]

Liberal > Tory
Liberal + NDP < 170

That pretty much implies BQ >= NDP

[Holmes]

Liberal > Tory
Liberal + NDP < 170

Actually one of the worst results.

[S019]

I'm going to say a Liberal minority for now, but I could see either a Tory minority or a Liberal majority.

[beesley]

A Conservative minority with the Libs + NDP below 170.

[TwinGeeks99]

Right now I predict a slightly weaker Liberal minority government, where they win about 150 seats, give or take 5. I do however see the possibility of a Liberal majority (with perhaps the lowest share of the vote in Canadian history for a majority, even lower than the 38.46% the Liberals got in 1997) as well as a narrow Conservative minority.

[Podgy the Bear]

Lib + NDP >170.  Conservatives lead the national popular vote, but like the U.S. electoral college, it's winning the individual ridings that matter.

[thumb21]

Trudeau is still ahead in preferred prime minister so I'm leaning more towards it being another Liberal minority but the range of realistic outcomes seems fairly big.

[Logical]

My gut says Conservative minority even though most polls point to Liberal minority or majority. The main reason being turnout. Every poll has shown that conservatives are more motivated and in a pandemic election where turnout is expected to go down and polling places reduced it's going to matter a lot. They're also doing better among seniors than in 2019. Finally, I can see a large amount of dissatisfied Liberals sitting this one out.

[Conservatopia]

I'm going to be bold and say ths Tories lose seats and sit around 110-118. Liberals gain about 10 seats. I may change this prediction once the picture in Ontario becomes clearer.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Liberal minority. All leaders stay on, except maybe Annamie Paul.

[MillennialModerate]

Sadly the most boring result … a liberal minority

[DC Al Fine]

Hot take: The PPC will win a second seat.

[beesley]

My other hot take is that a CPC majority is more likely than a Liberal majority.

[JerryArkansas]

137 Lib
137 Con
38 NDP
24 BQ
2 GPC (Kitchener Centre being one of them.)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Hot take: The PPC will win a second seat.

Given Kenney’s backtracking in Alberta, who knows what’s going to go on there. Yes, the UCP isn’t the (national) Conservative, but I can’t imagine the the Wildrose wing of the UCP will be very happy, especially when they could vote for the PPC on the federal level.

[rc18]

I'd go with Liberal minority again. Possibly small gains for the CPC in places like Quebec, Nova etc. 

Hot take: The PPC will win a second seat.

Second? They need a first, first.  It seems the CPC may have improved in Quebec, unsurprisingly, so I imagine even if the PPC do relatively well Bernier will still find it hard to win.

[mileslunn]

I predict Liberal win, but PPC will do well enough that if you take all the ridings CPC + PPC exceeds LPC votes, means Tories would be ahead so Tories blame PPC for costing them the election although I am not sure totally fair.  Yes most PPC voters would go CPC in absence of PPC, but many would just stay home and not vote at all.  A lot of PPC voters are former non-voters who are alienated and even a sizeable portion voted Green party in past.

[BigSerg]

Conservatives win the vote with a 300,000-vote lead, but the Liberal Party stays in power

[DC Al Fine]

I'd go with Liberal minority again. Possibly small gains for the CPC in places like Quebec, Nova etc. 

Hot take: The PPC will win a second seat.

Second? They need a first, first.  It seems the CPC may have improved in Quebec, unsurprisingly, so I imagine even if the PPC do relatively well Bernier will still find it hard to win.

Yes that's why it's a hot take

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I'll go with "Liberal majority" but I think Trudeau is going to pick up seats nobody expected