How would the previous poster fare in your constituency/congressional district?

[West_Midlander]

Let's say Peebs was the first poster. I think she would have an innate disadvantage in a primary in NC-04 due to being trans, though this effect will probably lessen with time. I think she would receive about 26% of the vote in an open primary with the winner receiving 32-33%. In a primary against Rep. Price she would win 22-23% of the vote. She would easily win the general election if nominated.

[West_Midlander]

Would probably lose by the high single digits.

What district?

(SKIP)

[West_Midlander]

My district is very blue and I think CR would do abysmally in an R primary but he could squeak through the primary and general as a Democrat in an open seat election imo.

[West_Midlander]

Badly

[West_Midlander]

New NC-02--He would win by a couple of points in an R favorable environment/2022; pure tossup in a neutral environment.

[West_Midlander]

Loses 35%-40% to Erica Smith in the primary in 2022. If he won the nomination, he would win by 0.5% in the general if the election was held today and he would win by more in a neutral/D favorable cycle.

[West_Midlander]

Bumping this and I will also give my answer for Greg (third to last poster, skipping myself and TimTurner who I already answered for).

If Greg runs an aggressive campaign, being pragmatic and non-fringe unlike Sandy Smith (R-NC-01), I think he could win by <1% in a 2022 environment.

[West_Midlander]

Loses by 0.2% in 2022

[West_Midlander]

Loses to Don Davis with 20-30% of the vote in the Democratic primary.

Loses by 3% in a neutral environment in the general election as the Democratic nominee.

Wins 0.5% as a third-party candidate.