How would the previous poster fare in your constituency/congressional district?
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  How would the previous poster fare in your constituency/congressional district?
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Author Topic: How would the previous poster fare in your constituency/congressional district?  (Read 1887 times)
West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 12, 2021, 06:32:30 AM »

Let's say Peebs was the first poster. I think she would have an innate disadvantage in a primary in NC-04 due to being trans, though this effect will probably lessen with time. I think she would receive about 26% of the vote in an open primary with the winner receiving 32-33%. In a primary against Rep. Price she would win 22-23% of the vote. She would easily win the general election if nominated.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2021, 01:57:03 PM »

NY-22. Very well. He would be strong with the large WWC portion of the district. If he ran as a Republican, he would easily primary Tenney, due to him being authentically pro-Trump. He would win the general as a GOPer by about 20, but he would not get past the primary as a Dem, due to not being left wing enough.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2021, 05:29:06 PM »

Would probably lose by the high single digits.
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West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2021, 05:58:37 PM »

Would probably lose by the high single digits.

What district?

(SKIP)
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2021, 05:59:38 PM »


Oh, sorry. I forgot. NJ-5.
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President of the civil service full of trans activists
Peebs
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2021, 07:08:38 PM »

NC-12: Wins with over 70% of the vote in the general, gets about 10% in the primary against Rep. Adams and about 20% in an open primary.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2021, 07:12:45 PM »

     CA-11: wins with 75%, supposing DeSaulnier is not running for re-election.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2021, 08:13:06 PM »

Assuming he wins the R Primary in UT-2, he’d be a shoe-in. But, some of his views would be very atypical of the district and Utah republicans as a whole.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2021, 08:19:01 PM »

VA-03 is minority-majority, so any Democrat who's popular with black primary voters would win easily. No one would beat Bobby Scott, though.
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2021, 05:34:39 PM »

 NY-22

Assuming he runs a Dem, he would win the primary, but lose the general about 8%. His being fairly left wing economically helps him with populist WWC voters, but his social liberalism hurts him among the general electorate
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S019
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2021, 06:01:27 PM »

NJ-11

Loses by like 6-10 points to a Democrat
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2021, 07:17:58 AM »

NY-22

I couldn't see him winning either primary, tbh. He would be seen as being an elitist, to his being from a wealthy suburb and being an ardent supporter of establishment Dems, which is a big no-no in my district. He would lose the general about 17% as a Dem, and about 5% as a Republican.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2021, 07:39:20 PM »

CO-6.
He would have received around 38% in 2020, probably more like 40-42% if it were today.
But I doubt he would win a primary.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2021, 10:31:10 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2021, 08:53:13 PM by LVScreenssuck »

EDIT: IL-12, sorry I forgot that

Sadly stuck at 40%

You might win a primary because local Dems seem to have kinda shrugged off the seat after Enyart lost and focused on state and county races

But good news, we are probably going to be a D seat again in 2022.
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« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2021, 10:23:07 AM »

IL-11

Definitely would win by a double digit lead.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2021, 05:26:48 PM »

SD-at large

Poorly.  Would obviously lose by a doubt-digit margin.
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Xing
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2021, 05:54:44 PM »

WA-07: Would win it overwhelmingly, of course.
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2021, 02:20:08 PM »

Southampton Test: the Labour candidate would win if he led, probably by slightly more than in 2019. But it's not a serious parallel.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2021, 11:39:30 AM »

My district is CPVI D+22, so it would depend strongly on what party he ran under.
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West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2021, 12:13:52 PM »

My district is very blue and I think CR would do abysmally in an R primary but he could squeak through the primary and general as a Democrat in an open seat election imo.
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2021, 12:35:14 PM »

NY-22. Very well. He would be strong with the large WWC portion of the district. If he ran as a Republican, he would easily primary Tenney, due to him being authentically pro-Trump. He would win the general as a GOPer by about 20, but he would not get past the primary as a Dem, due to not being left wing enough.
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2021, 12:47:16 PM »

He would be a weak Conservative party candidate, who would definitely lose Southampton Test and would win Itchen only on the strength of the national numbers.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #22 on: October 09, 2021, 05:55:28 PM »

NJ-06: Lose a Democratic primary to Frank Pallone
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GregTheGreat657
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #23 on: October 10, 2021, 07:33:45 PM »

NY-22. He would probably win by about 5%, give or take several percentage points depending on which party he runs as, due to voters here being tough-on-crime. A outsized amount of houses around here fly Blue Lives Matter flags, which would help him
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West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2021, 05:20:04 AM »

Badly
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