CA Recall - Berkley/IGS - No +21

[THG]

Wow.

I still stand by my prediction that this recall loses by around 8-12 points.

You can hold my feet to it if I get proven wrong.

[THG]

Crosstabs.

The LA-area underperformance that some were talking about appears to have failed to materialize.

Comparing recall voter intention with approvals, seems like not pulling a 2003 and letting Elder continue hitting himself in the face has brought home a big chunk of Dem-leaning liberals and young people who are otherwise more lukewarm on his performance.



Net No vote, less Net approval

Ideology (Con -> Lib) 0 / +7 / +14 / +15 / +17 Age (Young -> Old) +25 / +17 / +12 / +8 / +5

Many of these crosstabs make no sense. Easy to disregard them.

Recall loses by 8-12.

[THG]

<snip>

Many of these crosstabs make no sense. Easy to disregard them.

Recall loses by 8-12.

damn, you've gotta share where you get your supply of this grade-A copium. You do realize the n on this poll is 6550 LV. What crosstabs are you even implying make no sense, literally all of them are perfectly within expectations relative to every single other poll out there.

Is it grade a-Copium to doubt a poll that has Sacramento County voting the same as Orange County?

[THG]

The Sac Valley is more Republican, but their total population combined isn’t enough to offset Sac County itself by the amount that it would vote similarly to Orange, which is like D+24 and has a population of 1.5 million people. At best the entire “Sac Valley” is D+15 in the 2020 election, and the definition of the “Sacramento Valley” is incredibly loose (some versions of it unlike Stockton whereas others include all of Norcal?).

Also, if this “poll” is accurate, white voters swing 5-10 points to the left but black voters swing 15 points Republican (relative to 2020), and post graduates vote the same as non-high school/college voters. Which is verifiably false, even in California.

So yeah, I call BS on the crosstabs and this poll’s methodology. That doesn’t change the fact that I believe that this recall will still lose by likely to safe margins, of course.