CA Recall - Berkley/IGS - No +21
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  CA Recall - Berkley/IGS - No +21
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Author Topic: CA Recall - Berkley/IGS - No +21  (Read 1209 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: September 10, 2021, 05:24:29 AM »

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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2021, 05:55:14 AM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2021, 05:56:02 AM »

Would love to hear the post-mortem from media outlets that pushed the horse race if Newsom actually ends up close or beating his 2018 margin.
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2021, 06:42:01 AM »

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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2021, 06:43:03 AM »


And it looks like he could UNDERPERFORM Hump now?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2021, 09:01:34 AM »

Would love to hear the post-mortem from media outlets that pushed the horse race if Newsom actually ends up close or beating his 2018 margin.

I'm actually fine with the horse race narrative being pushed as its going to make Newsom's win even more impressive.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2021, 09:04:55 AM »

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2021, 09:16:05 AM »

Remember when all the smart pundits were trying to lecture us that this was really Lean D?
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CalamityBlue
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« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2021, 10:52:09 AM »
« Edited: September 10, 2021, 11:13:18 AM by California Uber Alles »



Crosstabs.

The LA-area underperformance that some were talking about appears to have failed to materialize.

Comparing recall voter intention with approvals, seems like not pulling a 2003 and letting Elder continue hitting himself in the face has brought home a big chunk of Dem-leaning liberals and young people who are otherwise more lukewarm on his performance.



Net No vote, less Net approval

Ideology (Con -> Lib)
0/+7/+14/+15/+17
Age (Young -> Old)
+25/+17/+12/+8/+5
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2021, 11:46:40 AM »

It's nice to see this frivolous recall crashing so spectacularly.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2021, 11:57:14 AM »

Wow, the recall is even losing in Orange County now?? What a spectacular failure.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2021, 12:04:16 PM »

Wow, the recall is even losing in Orange County now?? What a spectacular failure.
Who would have guessed running a guy who thinks the minimum wage should be 0 dollars and 0 cents and making the campaign about him would backfire in a state that has not gone Republican since 1988 and where the last Republican victory in an open seat general gubernatorial election was in 1990?
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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2021, 12:35:50 PM »

"Here's Why Gavin Newsom Winning by a Larger Margin than 2018 Means We Should Re-Invade Afghanistan" - NBC News on Wednesday morning, probably
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DrScholl
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« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2021, 01:14:24 PM »

The results should be known fairly early on election night.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2021, 01:20:30 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2021, 01:27:15 PM by Mr. Kanye West »

So much for Larry Elder racial polarization

Waste of 💰💰💰 monies, they could of used on fighting homelessness
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THG
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« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2021, 01:35:20 PM »

Wow.

I still stand by my prediction that this recall loses by around 8-12 points.

You can hold my feet to it if I get proven wrong.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2021, 01:37:55 PM »

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THG
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« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2021, 01:39:57 PM »



Crosstabs.

The LA-area underperformance that some were talking about appears to have failed to materialize.

Comparing recall voter intention with approvals, seems like not pulling a 2003 and letting Elder continue hitting himself in the face has brought home a big chunk of Dem-leaning liberals and young people who are otherwise more lukewarm on his performance.



Net No vote, less Net approval


Ideology (Con -> Lib)
0/+7/+14/+15/+17
Age (Young -> Old)
+25/+17/+12/+8/+5

Many of these crosstabs make no sense. Easy to disregard them.

Recall loses by 8-12.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2021, 01:43:49 PM »

I guess it's Cox v Newsom 2022/ again and he will be slaughtered again
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2021, 01:54:57 PM »

It really speaks to the depraved, right-wing bias of the mainstream press that no one is asking: “Where does Gavin Newsom go to get his apology?”
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2021, 03:31:56 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2021, 05:24:08 PM by "?" »

Yet there'll still be folks saying how Newsom "only" beat the recall 60-40 in a state Biden won 63-34 (Disregarding the 2 choices on this ballot vs the multiple candidates on a presidential ballot)
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NYDem
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« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2021, 03:59:26 PM »

Well that's what happens when the face of the recall is a lunatic who thinks there shouldn't be a minimum wage, says that slaveowners deserved reparations more than slaves, and thinks that employment discrimination against pregnant women should be legal. That would be a tough sell even in Republican-leaning swing states, let alone California.
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CalamityBlue
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« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2021, 04:51:41 PM »



damn, you've gotta share where you get your supply of this grade-A copium. You do realize the n on this poll is 6550 LV. What crosstabs are you even implying make no sense, literally all of them are perfectly within expectations relative to every single other poll out there.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2021, 05:44:11 PM »

Wow.

I still stand by my prediction that this recall loses by around 8-12 points.

You can hold my feet to it if I get proven wrong.

I'm looking forward to it.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #24 on: September 10, 2021, 06:38:54 PM »

Wow.

I still stand by my prediction that this recall loses by around 8-12 points.

You can hold my feet to it if I get proven wrong.

I'm looking forward to it.



Good luck for that.
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