State trend predictions through the 2030's

[Skill and Chance]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  Retirees keep Florida moving right and limit the leftward trend in NC vs. the rest of the South. 

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

[Skill and Chance]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections. 

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

I could actually visualize much of this happening.

I have only two issues- outside of Georgia, I deeply doubt that the Deep South trends that far to the left. Most southern suburbs are rather evangelical and probably wouldn’t have an issue with Roe v Wade being overturned.

Also, Mormons are extremely pro life. They are not going to pull a VA 2008 over Roe v Wade being overturned, I promise.

They trend left because pro-life vs. pro-choice is settled at the state level and stops being an important part of federal elections 10 years from now (Dems have completely given up on bringing Roe back federally, but Reps don't have the votes for a nationwide ban), not because they want a new pro-choice SCOTUS decision. 

[Skill and Chance]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  Retirees keep Florida moving right and limit the leftward trend in NC vs. the rest of the South. 

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

Agreed with this

Feeling better about this after the CA Recall with the big swing from Biden to Yes in SoCal and the modest swing from Biden to Newsom in NorCal.

[Skill and Chance]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

I could actually visualize much of this happening.

I have only two issues- outside of Georgia, I deeply doubt that the Deep South trends that far to the left. Most southern suburbs are rather evangelical and probably wouldn’t have an issue with Roe v Wade being overturned.

Also, Mormons are extremely pro life. They are not going to pull a VA 2008 over Roe v Wade being overturned, I promise.

Figures that you take fault with Democratic overperformance in the South and Utah and not with California and New York voting solidly red. If you were even remotely objective you wouldn't object to the South and UT unless you objected to CA and NY as well, since CA and NY flipping is much less likely than it is that UT and parts of the South flip. None of it is likely but the margins in NY and CA for Democrats compared to GOP margins in UT and SC and MS alone make it clear which is more likely. I thought that perhaps you'd learned to stop overestimating how Republican California is after your embarrassing recall prediction fail, but clearly, you've returned to your old self and learned nothing about Californian politics in the process (I should know, being Californian myself, that the state is solidly blue).

This is a trend map, not a margin of victory map!

Dems are still winning NY and CA by 10 or so here.  Reps go back to winning TX by 10 or so.  GA is voting like MD and the rest of the Deep South states are highly competitive.   

[Skill and Chance]

The darker the color, the stronger the trend. Gray means largely stagnant/negligible trend.

This looks really close to mine although I'm less bearish on the TX GOP than you are.  I'd make TX either light red or gray.  They seem to be holding it together for a while longer there.

[Skill and Chance]

Tbh I think New York will trend Republican. I mean the counties directly north of NYC (probably excluding Rockland) likely will trend Democratic due to liberal city transplants but I think the city itself will trend decently Republican. Manhattan stays fairly static, Brooklyn moves a bit right due to trends in South Brooklyn, Staten Island goes safe R, Bronx is still safe Dem but not as monolithically so and Queens moves fairly heavily right due to pro-R swings in non-'ideologically liberal' Asian/Hispanic (and to a lesser extent Black) areas.

The next political era dividing line probably won't be so much urban vs. rural but more genteel vs. 'rough and ready'.

Curious how a “genteel vs rough and ready” divide would play out among different nonwhite racial and ancestry/culture groups, and whether this would be different from existing educational attainment polarization.

Attempted trend map projection post-2022 midterms:

Not sure I buy the South (outside of Atlanta) trending left that hard anymore.