State trend predictions through the 2030's

[Make America Grumpy Again]

My prediction for how I think the US will shift over the next 20 or so years.

West Coast: California will become more Democratic as SW Cali grows and conservatives leave the state, but the GOP could do better around the suburbs of SF (namely Lake County), as well as the possibility of the SE part of the state (San Bernadino, Riverside & Imperial), although this  won't happen for until at least the end of the 2020's. I anticipate the San Joaquin Valley will see substantial Dem growth as well, which means counties like King & Kern are likely to flip in an upcoming election. WA+OR stay put and Alaska may trend slightly leftward early on, but I think the 2A+oil will keep it firmly in the GOP column. Hawaii will remain a strong Democratic state, although it will continue to hold a strong incumbency factor and could swing contrary to most of the country, such as what we saw in 2020.

InterWest: Arizona+Nevada will  lean Democratic but remain competitive, although I don't think Dems will win double-digits there at least through much of the 2030's, except for during a landslide. CO+NM will continue to go in opposite directions, although I think it's premature to declare that NM will become competitive. It'll continue to vote Dem usually by single digits, with the possibility that it could become competitive in the late 2030's. Most of the region as a whole will likely continue to trend Democratic, while Montana could become competitive during a strong year for Dems. Utah will likely continue to trend Democrat and could be limited to single digits during a good year, but will likely remain a GOP stronghold.

Plains:
Still a Republican region. Kansas could become competitive and could see single digit GOP margins by the 2030's, although I don't think it would flip barring a landslide. Oklahoma could trend towards the Dems if OKC and Tulsa grows, but I don't see it becoming remotely competitive. Texas will likely become a bellwether, unless GOP, RGV growth cancels out the Dem growth in Austin and Dallas.

Deep South:
I think Arkansas will vote to the right of Oklahoma soon.  Mississippi will stay put, while Louisiana could move slightly left due to suburban NOLA growth being cancelled out by rural conservative gains. Alabama and Tennessee will trend left with its urban and suburban areas growing, although both will remain firmly Republican.

Southeast:
Florida will likely trend right and become a reliably GOP state, although at some point it could reverse itself, whlie likely remaining to the right of GA+NC. Georgia will become a Democratic stronghold although this might not become apparent until the 2030's. NC will likely become competitive and SC will likely see Dem gains, although usually falling short of a Dem win. NOVA+Tidewater Dem growth will help Virginia maintain a Democratic stronghold and it could vote to the left of DE+NJ by the end of the decade.

Midwest:
Missouri could move slightly left, but not back to pre-2016 levels.
Iowa+Ohio are probably gone for the Dems, although Ohio has a better chance of Dems winning.
Indiana could trend leftward due to suburban growth near Indianapolis, but I don't think it'll become competitive, unless a 2008 scenario happens again. While it's possible it could vote to the left of Iowa, I'm also not ruling out it could vote to the left of Ohio either as Indie. is continuing to grow, especially considering it only voted 3 points to the right back in 2008, when Ohio was more Democratic.
Illinois will stay put with Dem Collar growth being cancelled by rural GOP gains.
Wisconsin+Michigan will  become the new bellwethers taking Iowa+Ohio's place, with Wisconsin being more unpredictable and Milwaukee preventing it from going down the path of IA+OH.
Rural GOP growth in Minnesota will be cancelled by Dem growth near Minneapolis and  the state could grow more Democratic as a result, countering regional trends.

Northeast:
Maryland will continue to trend left.
Delaware will stay put.
Pennsylvania could remain a bellwether in the short term, but I think Dems will be favored in the long term. While the GOP will continue to grow statewide, the Dems will continue to strengthen in the Southeastern part of the state which could hurt the GOP by the end of the 2030's, although I anticipate that neither party will win by more than 10 points and it will become a must-win state up until then.
The GOP could strengthen in South Jersey, but it'll be cancelled by Dem strength growing in North Jersey.
New York will see contrasts with the GOP increasing across Long Island, in New York City proper (although negligible) and around the Buffalo area. At the same time, the Rochester-Syracuse corridor, as well as the Eastern spine from Albany-NYC is likely to move to the left.
The state could move to the right as a result of decreased Dem performance in NYC, but it will remain a strong Democratic state overall.
Western Connecticut is likely to become a Democratic stronghold as the NYC suburbs expand to the North and East, while the GOP is likely to experience gains in the Eastern part of the state.
Rhode Island will  trend to the right overall.
Eastern and Western Massachusettts (except for Bristol county) will trend left, while Central Massachusetts (plus Bristol county) will trend to the right.
Northern Vermont will see GOP growth, while Southern Vermont will solidify for the Dems. The state could move slightly right overall, but it would depend on the GOP's successes in North Country.
NH: Coos county is gone for the Dems. Sullivan+Belknap counties will likely be the new swing counties and the other counties will trend left. Cheshire county could swing either way and could flip if a libertarian-leaning candidate is nominated. It'll trend to the left and become as reliably Democratic as a result of the Dem growth in the SE corner of the state.
ME: Continued polarization with ME-1 becoming more Dem and ME-2 becoming more Rep, although the state as a whole will stay put.

[BoiseBoy]

Where do you see Idaho going over the next decade? With the trend of Ada County to the left but the strong GOP dominance elsewhere, I don't see Democrats gaining any meaningful power here anytime soon.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Where do you see Idaho going over the next decade? With the trend of Ada County to the left but the strong GOP dominance elsewhere, I don't see Democrats gaining any meaningful power here anytime soon.

I think slightly to the left, with Reps averaging from the upper 50's-low 60's. Dems could easily crack 40 during a good year, but I agree that it won't become competitive beforehand, unless Boise grows.

[Skill and Chance]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  Retirees keep Florida moving right and limit the leftward trend in NC vs. the rest of the South. 

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

[THG]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

I could actually visualize much of this happening.

I have only two issues- outside of Georgia, I deeply doubt that the Deep South trends that far to the left. Most southern suburbs are rather evangelical and probably wouldn’t have an issue with Roe v Wade being overturned.

Also, Mormons are extremely pro life. They are not going to pull a VA 2008 over Roe v Wade being overturned, I promise.

[Skill and Chance]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections. 

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

I could actually visualize much of this happening.

I have only two issues- outside of Georgia, I deeply doubt that the Deep South trends that far to the left. Most southern suburbs are rather evangelical and probably wouldn’t have an issue with Roe v Wade being overturned.

Also, Mormons are extremely pro life. They are not going to pull a VA 2008 over Roe v Wade being overturned, I promise.

They trend left because pro-life vs. pro-choice is settled at the state level and stops being an important part of federal elections 10 years from now (Dems have completely given up on bringing Roe back federally, but Reps don't have the votes for a nationwide ban), not because they want a new pro-choice SCOTUS decision. 

[THG]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections. 

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

I could actually visualize much of this happening.

I have only two issues- outside of Georgia, I deeply doubt that the Deep South trends that far to the left. Most southern suburbs are rather evangelical and probably wouldn’t have an issue with Roe v Wade being overturned.

Also, Mormons are extremely pro life. They are not going to pull a VA 2008 over Roe v Wade being overturned, I promise.

They trend left because pro-life vs. pro-choice is settled at the state level and stops being an important part of federal elections 10 years from now (Dems have completely given up on bringing Roe back federally, but Reps don't have the votes for a nationwide ban), not because they want a new pro-choice SCOTUS decision. 

That is interesting to ponder about, but I don’t think that Mormons or Evangelicals are simply going to magically shift D if Roe gets overturned. There are other reasons they vote Republican other than the single issue of abortion. I was raised by a Mormon and an Evangelical- so I know this firsthand.

I do believe that places like Utah will trend D due to becoming more secular and non-plurality Mormon, and SLC being overrun by liberal transplants will accelerate that.

[David Hume]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

I could actually visualize much of this happening.

I have only two issues- outside of Georgia, I deeply doubt that the Deep South trends that far to the left. Most southern suburbs are rather evangelical and probably wouldn’t have an issue with Roe v Wade being overturned.

Also, Mormons are extremely pro life. They are not going to pull a VA 2008 over Roe v Wade being overturned, I promise.

They trend left because pro-life vs. pro-choice is settled at the state level and stops being an important part of federal elections 10 years from now (Dems have completely given up on bringing Roe back federally, but Reps don't have the votes for a nationwide ban), not because they want a new pro-choice SCOTUS decision.  

There will be people like AOC keep saying pack the court to restore Roe, or enact federal law protecting abortion right for sure.

[EastwoodS]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  Retirees keep Florida moving right and limit the leftward trend in NC vs. the rest of the South. 

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

Agreed with this

[Xing]

My hot take is that Latinos don't trend significantly in either direction, at least not uniformly (kind of silly that the same people saying that they're not a monolith before 2016/2020 are treating them like one now.) We might see somewhat of a Republican trend in Florida, due to an influx of Venezuelans, who, like Cubans, could vote substantially to the right of Mexican-Americans, but I don't see CA/NV (lol at it becoming a strong Republican state)/NM trending Republican, and I think TX will become a truly competitive state. I don't think the South outside of GA/NC/VA will trend left, since I actually think black voters are a bit more likely than Latinos to trend a bit Republican, especially looking at generational trends. They'll still vote strongly Democratic, but it could be more like 80-20 instead of 90-10.

Strong D trend: CO, GA, VA
Slight D trend: AK, AZ, CT, KS, MA, NE, MT, NC, OR, TX, UT, WA
Slight R trend: AL, DE, FL, ID, IL, ME, MI, MO, ND, PA, RI, SD, WI
Strong R trend: AR, IA, OH

The remaining states don't change much.

[Non Swing Voter]

Virginia is not voting to the left of New Jersey by the end of this decade.  That's absurd.

[Skill and Chance]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  Retirees keep Florida moving right and limit the leftward trend in NC vs. the rest of the South. 

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

Agreed with this

Feeling better about this after the CA Recall with the big swing from Biden to Yes in SoCal and the modest swing from Biden to Newsom in NorCal.

[Schiff for Senate]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

I could actually visualize much of this happening.

I have only two issues- outside of Georgia, I deeply doubt that the Deep South trends that far to the left. Most southern suburbs are rather evangelical and probably wouldn’t have an issue with Roe v Wade being overturned.

Also, Mormons are extremely pro life. They are not going to pull a VA 2008 over Roe v Wade being overturned, I promise.

Figures that you take fault with Democratic overperformance in the South and Utah and not with California and New York voting solidly red. If you were even remotely objective you wouldn't object to the South and UT unless you objected to CA and NY as well, since CA and NY flipping is much less likely than it is that UT and parts of the South flip. None of it is likely but the margins in NY and CA for Democrats compared to GOP margins in UT and SC and MS alone make it clear which is more likely. I thought that perhaps you'd learned to stop overestimating how Republican California is after your embarrassing recall prediction fail, but clearly, you've returned to your old self and learned nothing about Californian politics in the process (I should know, being Californian myself, that the state is solidly blue).

[progressive85]

My take if I had to visualize it:

The country's most partisan, most ideological states become even more so.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a Democratic candidate in 2036 winning New York with nearly 70% of the vote just due to all the younger voters there really having nothing in common with the Conservatives.  And a lot of the older conservatives on Long Island and Staten Island are going down to Florida (which may explain why Florida is getting redder).

California is gone.  I don't even know if a Republican can win statewide anymore for a long, long time.  Once again, younger voters will replace older ones, and the older ones were the most conservative, especially on social and cultural issues, so today's youth will take over the state one day.  It goes from 63% D in 2020 to 73% D in 2024.

There are states that are thought of as conservative now that I feel will change dramatically in the next 20 years.

North Carolina comes to mind right away.  It's a red state (lean red maybe, but still red) and it's got a very conservative state Republican Party.  Much like Virginia does, but Virginia went from lean red in 2004 to swing in 2008 and 2012 to blue by 2016 and 2020.  Still, we'll see how the VA Governor's race goes.  Could surprise us with a Trumpkin victory and Republican pickups in the statehouse... so gotta wait for that to make a good prediction.

NC has this extreme generational divide, and I think that's because there's a lot of young people in NC who are much more diverse than the older groups are...

The old Andy Griffith (legendary TV star, was also "Matlock", and a big Democrat actually into old age) generation in NC is not going to dominate the state forever.

So NC moves towards where Virginia is going.  Strangely enough, Georgia has jumped over NC in getting there... so those three states (VA, NC, and GA) - that's a huge problem for the Republicans even with the addition of Florida as safe red (and it's not really 'safe red', it's still lean-to-likely red statewide at best). 

Republicans are losing their iron-clad grasp on the Populous Electoral Rich South, and that's not good (for them).

Arizona is in that zone - it did not become more conservative in "Donald Trump's America" despite doing so in "Barack Obama's America" (remember Jan Brewer and the immigration issue in the Tea Party days?).  That leads me to believe it is now morphing into a serious swing state, and it was once safe red really - so that's going to play a big role in the electoral college.  AZ is gaining electoral power, not losing it.

Then there's the Big Kahuna of all - Texas.  Texas for so long, in my lifetime at least, has been completely associated with the most conservative elements or the most powerful elements in the national Republican Party.  It's a HUGE state both in population and land, and I'm sure all the men in Texas are just muscly and have huge cocks, because that's what we Northeastern girls think of them based on the romance novels we read.

now, that all aside: Texas is a state in flux.  It is rapidly changing, and it's still to early to know where it's going.  The Republicans seem to be doing well with Latino men in particular, whereas those lily-white suburbs are now starting to look a teensy bit more blue than anyone could have imagined in 2012 when Obama lost the state to Mitt Romney, and BADLY.

Until we dump the Electoral College, the only states that really matter in this country will be down to maybe just ten out of fifty - just 10 out of 50 states-- that's historically very very low - and quite sad really --- and they are:

Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Georgia
Texas
Florida
Arizona
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nevada (even though it's smaller than the other nine are)

[Skill and Chance]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

I could actually visualize much of this happening.

I have only two issues- outside of Georgia, I deeply doubt that the Deep South trends that far to the left. Most southern suburbs are rather evangelical and probably wouldn’t have an issue with Roe v Wade being overturned.

Also, Mormons are extremely pro life. They are not going to pull a VA 2008 over Roe v Wade being overturned, I promise.

Figures that you take fault with Democratic overperformance in the South and Utah and not with California and New York voting solidly red. If you were even remotely objective you wouldn't object to the South and UT unless you objected to CA and NY as well, since CA and NY flipping is much less likely than it is that UT and parts of the South flip. None of it is likely but the margins in NY and CA for Democrats compared to GOP margins in UT and SC and MS alone make it clear which is more likely. I thought that perhaps you'd learned to stop overestimating how Republican California is after your embarrassing recall prediction fail, but clearly, you've returned to your old self and learned nothing about Californian politics in the process (I should know, being Californian myself, that the state is solidly blue).

This is a trend map, not a margin of victory map!

Dems are still winning NY and CA by 10 or so here.  Reps go back to winning TX by 10 or so.  GA is voting like MD and the rest of the Deep South states are highly competitive.   

[Schiff for Senate]

Semi-controversial take: Republicans are winning the Hispanic vote by 2032, with dramatic improvements in NV, NM, CA, IL and NY, though the latter 3 still vote Dem by 10% or so.  After the Supreme Court overturns Roe and abortion is mostly settled at the state level, currently Republican Southern and Mormon suburbs abruptly do a VA 2008 in federal elections.  

Techie WFH and environmentally-oriented West Coast retirees flip Alaska and a bunch of interior West mountain towns to the Dems.  This also happens locally in certain parts of Appalachia.  The flip side of this increased salience of green issues is that Texas Democrats still have never been able to exceed Beto's 2018 margin in Houston.  When combined with the now-Republican RGV, this pushes the state back to the right and keeps Democrats out of statewide contention.

New England is the part I'm least confident in, but education polarization nets out to keep it moving left.

I could actually visualize much of this happening.

I have only two issues- outside of Georgia, I deeply doubt that the Deep South trends that far to the left. Most southern suburbs are rather evangelical and probably wouldn’t have an issue with Roe v Wade being overturned.

Also, Mormons are extremely pro life. They are not going to pull a VA 2008 over Roe v Wade being overturned, I promise.

Figures that you take fault with Democratic overperformance in the South and Utah and not with California and New York voting solidly red. If you were even remotely objective you wouldn't object to the South and UT unless you objected to CA and NY as well, since CA and NY flipping is much less likely than it is that UT and parts of the South flip. None of it is likely but the margins in NY and CA for Democrats compared to GOP margins in UT and SC and MS alone make it clear which is more likely. I thought that perhaps you'd learned to stop overestimating how Republican California is after your embarrassing recall prediction fail, but clearly, you've returned to your old self and learned nothing about Californian politics in the process (I should know, being Californian myself, that the state is solidly blue).

This is a trend map, not a margin of victory map!

Dems are still winning NY and CA by 10 or so here.  Reps go back to winning TX by 10 or so.  GA is voting like MD and the rest of the Deep South states are highly competitive.   

Oh. Oh! Well, there are still some things shady about your take - though it makes much more sense now. I can understand ND, IA, OH, WI and probably MI, MN and PA trending rightward, but I don't see why IL and NY would have massive rightward shifts. TX and AZ seem impossible, given explosive growth, demographic change and consequent liberalization in their metropolitan areas being more than enough to reverse the effect of Hispanics trending rightward. NV and NM, while still pretty unlikely, aren't entirely impossible. CA doesn't make much sense but I think I can see a reasonably plausible scenario in which this might actually happen (though it's still less likely than not). Other than all of that, I suppose I pretty much agree with you outside of NJ trending rightward and perhaps one or two other states.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

I updated my prediction and made a statewide prediction with the average election around 2040.

Lean-R swing states: UT (Could go the way of '90s/00'sNV+CO and become tilt-R by the late 2030's but its heavy Mormon presence may slow that down), KS, NE+NE-1, MT (Tilt-R by the late 2030's)
Pure tossup/must-win states: NV (No relative lean), AZ (No relative lean), TX (Tilt D. I think the RGV will be safe R but cities like Dallas+Austin could vote similarly to the big cities of The Northeast shifting the state and potentially the country), WI (Tilt R), MI (Tilt D early on, no relative lean later on), PA (No relative lean early on, Tilt-R towards the end of the 2030's).
Lean-D swing states: MN (barely), GA (arguably no longer a swing state by the late 2030's. I think the greater ATL area will look similar to NOVA currently with the region being a combination of both left/right wing activism), NC (arguably no longer a swing state by the late 2030's. NC could pull a CO and vote to the left of GA since its rural aren't as conservative despite Dem support dropping off), RI, NH (barely), ME-At.

[Schiff for Senate]

Where do you see Idaho going over the next decade? With the trend of Ada County to the left but the strong GOP dominance elsewhere, I don't see Democrats gaining any meaningful power here anytime soon.

ID will trend leftward because of urban and suburban expansion, but remain strongly Republican into the 2030s, just like neighbouring UT.


EDIT: My full map. States in red will trend rightwards over the next decade or so; states in blue will trend leftward; states in purple will stay around the same (won't trend more than a few points in either direction):



EDIT ON PRIOR EDIT: The above map is a swing map, not a trend map, and states in blue have swung leftward while the state in red has swung rightward.

[kwabbit]

Where do you see Idaho going over the next decade? With the trend of Ada County to the left but the strong GOP dominance elsewhere, I don't see Democrats gaining any meaningful power here anytime soon.

ID will trend leftward because of urban and suburban expansion, but remain strongly Republican into the 2030s, just like neighbouring UT.


EDIT: My full map. States in red will trend rightwards over the next decade or so; states in blue will trend leftward; states in purple will stay around the same (won't trend more than a few points in either direction):

You do realize that trend is measured relative to the nation, right? By definition, about an equal amount of states would trend R and D. This is almost a manifestation of all states are trending D meme.

[kwabbit]

This is my prediction for trend (relative to the nation). GOP makes gains with Latinos, WWC, Dems gain with College Whites

[Schiff for Senate]

Where do you see Idaho going over the next decade? With the trend of Ada County to the left but the strong GOP dominance elsewhere, I don't see Democrats gaining any meaningful power here anytime soon.

ID will trend leftward because of urban and suburban expansion, but remain strongly Republican into the 2030s, just like neighbouring UT.


EDIT: My full map. States in red will trend rightwards over the next decade or so; states in blue will trend leftward; states in purple will stay around the same (won't trend more than a few points in either direction):

You do realize that trend is measured relative to the nation, right? By definition, about an equal amount of states would trend R and D. This is almost a manifestation of all states are trending D meme.

Yeah, you're right. I forgot what 'trend' means and made a swing map. Treat this as a swing map (2020 to 2030s). Of course, if I were to make a trend map, a lot of states would be red, instead of the one red state (IA) on this map. So just ignore this map, or treat it as a swing (not trend) map. My mistake.

[GregTheGreat657]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=23m

[dw93]

Blue= Trend Dem
Red= Trend Rep
Gray= No trend in either direction

Illinois, Vermont, New York, and California will trend red, but still be blue states with Democrats winning them by no less than 5 points, and even then, I think IL and maybe VT  are the only states of these states that would have a Dem. Margin of less than 10 points.

I fully expect Wisconsin to be a red state by the close of this decade, let alone the 2030s. MI will stay tilt/lean D for this decade, but trend hard to the GOP in the 2030s.

Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, and Arkansas will continue to trend red, and join the likes of Wyoming, Idaho, the Dakotas, and West Virginia as some of the reddest states in the country. ME's 2nd will trend hard too, but stop short of the other states I mentioned.

NH, ME AL, and OR will be tilt blue states that the GOP could win on a good night, but I don't think, especially in the case of the later that day will come until the later half of the 2030s.

FL and AZ will more or less keep where they are now. White retires will keep AZ competitive for the GOP while FL being a weird state will give the Democrats a high enough floor to keep the GOP below 5 points. AZ will be tilt D, while FL will as lean/tilt R as its been over the last decade or two.

New Mexico and Nevada will trend Rep. The former will remain a lean D state while the later will be the belt weather state of the west.

I could conceivably see Montana and Utah going the way Colorado and Virginia did last decade, though I don't out rule time putting egg in my face over that prediction either.

NE AL, Kansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana will trend left but stay red states, but not be double digits the way they are now, Tennessee in particular due to growth in the metro areas, I could even see Dems staring to win some state wide races there by the close of the 2030s, despite coming short at the Presidential level.

Texas will be the Democrat's version of 2000-2012 Florida by the close of the 2030s or the close of the 2040s at the latest. The GOP won't ever be locked out of it like the Dems were (and likely never will be) never completely locked out of Florida, but the Democrats will have a huge structural advantage and the Texas GOP, if it continues down its current path will be in the same position Florida Democrats have been in over the last 20 years.

GA and, abet very slowly, NC will be the same as VA today, with SC being a tilt R swing state.

PA will be the new Ohio.

[WestVegeta]

My prediction for how I think the US will shift over the next 20 or so years.

Yeah I agree with all of this, except I think Kansas will stay more static. Maaaaaybe it votes to Ohio's left by the end of the decade.

[vileplume]

This is my prediction for trend (relative to the nation). GOP makes gains with Latinos, WWC, Dems gain with College Whites

Tbh I think New York will trend Republican. I mean the counties directly north of NYC (probably excluding Rockland) likely will trend Democratic due to liberal city transplants but I think the city itself will trend decently Republican. Manhattan stays fairly static, Brooklyn moves a bit right due to trends in South Brooklyn, Staten Island goes safe R, Bronx is still safe Dem but not as monolithically so and Queens moves fairly heavily right due to pro-R swings in non-'ideologically liberal' Asian/Hispanic (and to a lesser extent Black) areas.

The next political era dividing line probably won't be so much urban vs. rural but more genteel vs. 'rough and ready'.