State trend predictions through the 2030's

[kwabbit]

Where do you see Idaho going over the next decade? With the trend of Ada County to the left but the strong GOP dominance elsewhere, I don't see Democrats gaining any meaningful power here anytime soon.

ID will trend leftward because of urban and suburban expansion, but remain strongly Republican into the 2030s, just like neighbouring UT.


EDIT: My full map. States in red will trend rightwards over the next decade or so; states in blue will trend leftward; states in purple will stay around the same (won't trend more than a few points in either direction):

You do realize that trend is measured relative to the nation, right? By definition, about an equal amount of states would trend R and D. This is almost a manifestation of all states are trending D meme.

[kwabbit]

This is my prediction for trend (relative to the nation). GOP makes gains with Latinos, WWC, Dems gain with College Whites

[kwabbit]

This is my prediction for trend (relative to the nation). GOP makes gains with Latinos, WWC, Dems gain with College Whites

Tbh I think New York will trend Republican. I mean the counties directly north of NYC (probably excluding Rockland) likely will trend Democratic due to liberal city transplants but I think the city itself will trend decently Republican. Manhattan stays fairly static, Brooklyn moves a bit right due to trends in South Brooklyn, Staten Island goes safe R, Bronx is still safe Dem but not as monolithically so and Queens moves fairly heavily right due to pro-R swings in non-'ideologically liberal' Asian/Hispanic (and to a lesser extent Black) areas.

The next political era dividing line probably won't be so much urban vs. rural but more genteel vs. 'rough and ready'.

You're right, I hadn't considered that. NY's neutral trend was based on the fact that I estimated the trends of the suburbs would counter NYC rightward trends. But Long Island has been stubbornly decent GOP despite its diversity and education attainment. I have theorized that this is due to a high percentage of Italians, who despite their success, remain 'rough and ready', while successful Anglos are genteel. The same below-expectations Dem performance can be seen in Bergen County, NJ. Given the fact that Long Island might not trend as D, NY as a whole should trend R.