State trend predictions through the 2030's

[Vice President Christian Man]

My prediction for how I think the US will shift over the next 20 or so years.

West Coast: California will become more Democratic as SW Cali grows and conservatives leave the state, but the GOP could do better around the suburbs of SF (namely Lake County), as well as the possibility of the SE part of the state (San Bernadino, Riverside & Imperial), although this  won't happen for until at least the end of the 2020's. I anticipate the San Joaquin Valley will see substantial Dem growth as well, which means counties like King & Kern are likely to flip in an upcoming election. WA+OR stay put and Alaska may trend slightly leftward early on, but I think the 2A+oil will keep it firmly in the GOP column. Hawaii will remain a strong Democratic state, although it will continue to hold a strong incumbency factor and could swing contrary to most of the country, such as what we saw in 2020.

InterWest: Arizona+Nevada will  lean Democratic but remain competitive, although I don't think Dems will win double-digits there at least through much of the 2030's, except for during a landslide. CO+NM will continue to go in opposite directions, although I think it's premature to declare that NM will become competitive. It'll continue to vote Dem usually by single digits, with the possibility that it could become competitive in the late 2030's. Most of the region as a whole will likely continue to trend Democratic, while Montana could become competitive during a strong year for Dems. Utah will likely continue to trend Democrat and could be limited to single digits during a good year, but will likely remain a GOP stronghold.

Plains:
Still a Republican region. Kansas could become competitive and could see single digit GOP margins by the 2030's, although I don't think it would flip barring a landslide. Oklahoma could trend towards the Dems if OKC and Tulsa grows, but I don't see it becoming remotely competitive. Texas will likely become a bellwether, unless GOP, RGV growth cancels out the Dem growth in Austin and Dallas.

Deep South:
I think Arkansas will vote to the right of Oklahoma soon.  Mississippi will stay put, while Louisiana could move slightly left due to suburban NOLA growth being cancelled out by rural conservative gains. Alabama and Tennessee will trend left with its urban and suburban areas growing, although both will remain firmly Republican.

Southeast:
Florida will likely trend right and become a reliably GOP state, although at some point it could reverse itself, whlie likely remaining to the right of GA+NC. Georgia will become a Democratic stronghold although this might not become apparent until the 2030's. NC will likely become competitive and SC will likely see Dem gains, although usually falling short of a Dem win. NOVA+Tidewater Dem growth will help Virginia maintain a Democratic stronghold and it could vote to the left of DE+NJ by the end of the decade.

Midwest:
Missouri could move slightly left, but not back to pre-2016 levels.
Iowa+Ohio are probably gone for the Dems, although Ohio has a better chance of Dems winning.
Indiana could trend leftward due to suburban growth near Indianapolis, but I don't think it'll become competitive, unless a 2008 scenario happens again. While it's possible it could vote to the left of Iowa, I'm also not ruling out it could vote to the left of Ohio either as Indie. is continuing to grow, especially considering it only voted 3 points to the right back in 2008, when Ohio was more Democratic.
Illinois will stay put with Dem Collar growth being cancelled by rural GOP gains.
Wisconsin+Michigan will  become the new bellwethers taking Iowa+Ohio's place, with Wisconsin being more unpredictable and Milwaukee preventing it from going down the path of IA+OH.
Rural GOP growth in Minnesota will be cancelled by Dem growth near Minneapolis and  the state could grow more Democratic as a result, countering regional trends.

Northeast:
Maryland will continue to trend left.
Delaware will stay put.
Pennsylvania could remain a bellwether in the short term, but I think Dems will be favored in the long term. While the GOP will continue to grow statewide, the Dems will continue to strengthen in the Southeastern part of the state which could hurt the GOP by the end of the 2030's, although I anticipate that neither party will win by more than 10 points and it will become a must-win state up until then.
The GOP could strengthen in South Jersey, but it'll be cancelled by Dem strength growing in North Jersey.
New York will see contrasts with the GOP increasing across Long Island, in New York City proper (although negligible) and around the Buffalo area. At the same time, the Rochester-Syracuse corridor, as well as the Eastern spine from Albany-NYC is likely to move to the left.
The state could move to the right as a result of decreased Dem performance in NYC, but it will remain a strong Democratic state overall.
Western Connecticut is likely to become a Democratic stronghold as the NYC suburbs expand to the North and East, while the GOP is likely to experience gains in the Eastern part of the state.
Rhode Island will  trend to the right overall.
Eastern and Western Massachusettts (except for Bristol county) will trend left, while Central Massachusetts (plus Bristol county) will trend to the right.
Northern Vermont will see GOP growth, while Southern Vermont will solidify for the Dems. The state could move slightly right overall, but it would depend on the GOP's successes in North Country.
NH: Coos county is gone for the Dems. Sullivan+Belknap counties will likely be the new swing counties and the other counties will trend left. Cheshire county could swing either way and could flip if a libertarian-leaning candidate is nominated. It'll trend to the left and become as reliably Democratic as a result of the Dem growth in the SE corner of the state.
ME: Continued polarization with ME-1 becoming more Dem and ME-2 becoming more Rep, although the state as a whole will stay put.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Where do you see Idaho going over the next decade? With the trend of Ada County to the left but the strong GOP dominance elsewhere, I don't see Democrats gaining any meaningful power here anytime soon.

I think slightly to the left, with Reps averaging from the upper 50's-low 60's. Dems could easily crack 40 during a good year, but I agree that it won't become competitive beforehand, unless Boise grows.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I updated my prediction and made a statewide prediction with the average election around 2040.

Lean-R swing states: UT (Could go the way of '90s/00'sNV+CO and become tilt-R by the late 2030's but its heavy Mormon presence may slow that down), KS, NE+NE-1, MT (Tilt-R by the late 2030's)
Pure tossup/must-win states: NV (No relative lean), AZ (No relative lean), TX (Tilt D. I think the RGV will be safe R but cities like Dallas+Austin could vote similarly to the big cities of The Northeast shifting the state and potentially the country), WI (Tilt R), MI (Tilt D early on, no relative lean later on), PA (No relative lean early on, Tilt-R towards the end of the 2030's).
Lean-D swing states: MN (barely), GA (arguably no longer a swing state by the late 2030's. I think the greater ATL area will look similar to NOVA currently with the region being a combination of both left/right wing activism), NC (arguably no longer a swing state by the late 2030's. NC could pull a CO and vote to the left of GA since its rural aren't as conservative despite Dem support dropping off), RI, NH (barely), ME-At.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I wanted to revisit this post. I think my original projections could still happen, but I think it would take longer (perhaps 2040's at the earliest compared to 2030's) and if current trends continue, I anticipate that the Dems share of minority voters will shrink as Blacks in particular with conservative views shift from the Dems to the GOP.

This is my new map projection for the next few decades, at least until there's another major realignment. Due to the internet and social media, I've noticed that the increased partisan nature of this country is the primary reason why it has remained relatively the same politically since 2000.



Dark red: Almost certainly Dem
Medium red: Democratic strongholds but could go GOP in a '72/'84 type landslide
Light red: Dem states that could go Rep in a '56/'16 style landslide (Just Minnesota)
Very light red: Swing-states; lean Dem
Very light blue: Swing-states; lean Rep
Light blue: GOP states that could go Dem in a '96/'08 style landslide
Medium blue: Republican strongholds that could go Dem in a '32/'64 type landslide
Dark blue: Almost certainly Rep

Some people might be curious on why Utah is a safer color compared to a state like North Dakota, even if it is trending blue. Utah was a bad fit for Trump, but it still voted for him by almost 20 points. Even if the GOP remains the Trump party, I don't see Utah flipping in the next 10-15 years. If an Obama '08 type candidate runs and conditions are bad enough, the plains states including the Dakotas are more likely to flip than Utah. While Biden improved compared to prior Dems, it doesn't mean Utah is going to become a swing state. The electorate is still very conservative, particularly on social issues and are not likely to support the Dem party despite their differing views on issues such as immigration.

Swing-state analyses:

Alaska: Dems may take the upper hand due to the state's stances on issues including immigration and climate change.

Montana: Still a Rep state but elastic. People seem to forget that Montana went from Bush +21 to McCain +2 4 years later. If conditions are unpopular enough, I still see the possibility of Montana voting Dem. After all they recently had a Dem governor and they have a Dem senator. The conditions just have to be right and with climate change becoming more a dire issue, I see Montana moving to the left compared to where it is now.

Florida: I see Florida continuing to become more Republican as retirees/latino refugees move in. I anticipate it'll become a consistent Rep state but one that could be competitive during a strong cycle for Dems.

The Rust Belt: Continuing to trend away but it is not a lost cause for Dems, even in a state such as Iowa & Ohio. Trump happened to be a great fit for that region but it can still vote Dem if the conditions are right. This area is not a fiscally conservative area and is not nearly as socially conservative as areas to the South. Especially if the GOP abandons protectionism, I see it moving back to the Dems as immigration/trade seems to be the primary reason why Trump and Republicans did as well as they did in this region.

The Sun Belt: Continuing to trend Dem, particularly in suburban areas as immigration and climate change become hot button issues. Some states including Nevada might vote Rep one more time, but I think the long-term prognosis is good as long as the state party doesn't mess it up. Climate change will become more important due to the ongoing drought and the area is becoming more hospitable to immigrants compared to even 10 years ago.

Texas: I think Texas will trend Dem, but remain a swing state. Dem growth in urban/suburban areas plus new refugees are changing the demographics of the state to favor Dems. At the same time, conservative Latinos are trending R, although that area is largely rural and unpopulated and might only be a slight hiccup in Texas's transition leftward.