State trend predictions through the 2030's (user search)
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khuzifenq
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« on: November 06, 2021, 09:41:21 AM »



This is my prediction for trend (relative to the nation). GOP makes gains with Latinos, WWC, Dems gain with College Whites

Tbh I think New York will trend Republican. I mean the counties directly north of NYC (probably excluding Rockland) likely will trend Democratic due to liberal city transplants but I think the city itself will trend decently Republican. Manhattan stays fairly static, Brooklyn moves a bit right due to trends in South Brooklyn, Staten Island goes safe R, Bronx is still safe Dem but not as monolithically so and Queens moves fairly heavily right due to pro-R swings in non-'ideologically liberal' Asian/Hispanic (and to a lesser extent Black) areas.

The next political era dividing line probably won't be so much urban vs. rural but more genteel vs. 'rough and ready'.

Curious how a “genteel vs rough and ready” divide would play out among different nonwhite racial and ancestry/culture groups, and whether this would be different from existing educational attainment polarization.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2022, 12:40:44 AM »

Tbh I think New York will trend Republican. I mean the counties directly north of NYC (probably excluding Rockland) likely will trend Democratic due to liberal city transplants but I think the city itself will trend decently Republican. Manhattan stays fairly static, Brooklyn moves a bit right due to trends in South Brooklyn, Staten Island goes safe R, Bronx is still safe Dem but not as monolithically so and Queens moves fairly heavily right due to pro-R swings in non-'ideologically liberal' Asian/Hispanic (and to a lesser extent Black) areas.

The next political era dividing line probably won't be so much urban vs. rural but more genteel vs. 'rough and ready'.

Curious how a “genteel vs rough and ready” divide would play out among different nonwhite racial and ancestry/culture groups, and whether this would be different from existing educational attainment polarization.

Attempted trend map projection post-2022 midterms:


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khuzifenq
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« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2022, 08:44:18 PM »

Tbh I think New York will trend Republican. I mean the counties directly north of NYC (probably excluding Rockland) likely will trend Democratic due to liberal city transplants but I think the city itself will trend decently Republican. Manhattan stays fairly static, Brooklyn moves a bit right due to trends in South Brooklyn, Staten Island goes safe R, Bronx is still safe Dem but not as monolithically so and Queens moves fairly heavily right due to pro-R swings in non-'ideologically liberal' Asian/Hispanic (and to a lesser extent Black) areas.

The next political era dividing line probably won't be so much urban vs. rural but more genteel vs. 'rough and ready'.

Curious how a “genteel vs rough and ready” divide would play out among different nonwhite racial and ancestry/culture groups, and whether this would be different from existing educational attainment polarization.

Attempted trend map projection post-2022 midterms:

-snip-


Not sure I buy the South (outside of Atlanta) trending left that hard anymore.


At this point, I actually think most of the South (other than GA/NC) will trend further to the right, at least in the short term.

2036 and 2040 are still several cycles away. But yeah I just lazily copied MT Treasurer's map and made some minor edits. I'm fairly confident the Northeast will trend R, and I can't see most of the Midwest trending D, so there need to be D trends somewhere.

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