State trend predictions through the 2030's

[Xing]

My hot take is that Latinos don't trend significantly in either direction, at least not uniformly (kind of silly that the same people saying that they're not a monolith before 2016/2020 are treating them like one now.) We might see somewhat of a Republican trend in Florida, due to an influx of Venezuelans, who, like Cubans, could vote substantially to the right of Mexican-Americans, but I don't see CA/NV (lol at it becoming a strong Republican state)/NM trending Republican, and I think TX will become a truly competitive state. I don't think the South outside of GA/NC/VA will trend left, since I actually think black voters are a bit more likely than Latinos to trend a bit Republican, especially looking at generational trends. They'll still vote strongly Democratic, but it could be more like 80-20 instead of 90-10.

Strong D trend: CO, GA, VA
Slight D trend: AK, AZ, CT, KS, MA, NE, MT, NC, OR, TX, UT, WA
Slight R trend: AL, DE, FL, ID, IL, ME, MI, MO, ND, PA, RI, SD, WI
Strong R trend: AR, IA, OH

The remaining states don't change much.

[Xing]

At this point, I actually think most of the South (other than GA/NC) will trend further to the right, at least in the short term.