2000: Bill Clinton vs George Bush

[Canis]

Hypothetically if Bill Clinton could have ran for a third term against the son of the man he beat to become president who would win and what would the map look like?

[Alben Barkley]

Well considering Clinton had an approval rating in the high 60s and Gore came within 538 votes in Florida of winning the election despite being far less charismatic and despite running a lackluster campaign which inexplicably went out of its way to distance itself from Clinton, he almost definitely wins.

The scandal and impeachment would be the only even potential wild cards here, but the impeachment was far less popular than the scandal itself (indeed it backfired and led to Republican losses in 1998 and the resignation of Newt Gingrich) so I really don’t see it sinking him. And remain baffled as to why Gore thought it would.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I tend to believe that Bush would have won.  Had there been no Constitutional limit on terms, the two term tradition would still be a powerful force.  FDR was a unique man at a unique time.  2000 did not call for continuity of leadership as 1940 did.

[Alben Barkley]

I tend to believe that Bush would have won.  Had there been no Constitutional limit on terms, the two term tradition would still be a powerful force.  FDR was a unique man at a unique time.  2000 did not call for continuity of leadership as 1940 did.

I think that's overblown. I think Reagan and Ike if healthy and younger (as Clinton was) could have won third terms too. I think Teddy could have won a third term if he was the GOP nominee in 1908 or 1912. I think Grant could have won when he tried it in 1880. Etc. The "two term tradition" was for the most part more a consequence of happenstance than some deep taboo against a third term for presidents that would have made it impossible for a popular and charismatic leader to keep winning in times of prosperity. I don't even think FDR pulled it off in 1940 so much because of concerns over "continuity of leadership" (we hadn't entered the war yet, the idea wasn't popular yet, and he was still saying we wouldn't enter; the "don't change horses in midstream" argument came in 1944). He was just super popular and charismatic and the country felt better off in his hands. Same with Clinton really.

Besides, what would Bush's winning map even be? I think at MINIMUM Clinton still wins everything Gore did plus Florida and Arkansas. I don't see any conceivable map to victory over Clinton.

[GregTheGreat657]

This would be the map. WV and KY flip to Bush due to Clinton's support for environmentalism, which cost Coal Country jobs. CO flips back to Clinton due to gains in the Denver suburbs. LA flips to Bush due to Clinton's social liberalism, which cost many votes in the rurals.

[NewYorkExpress]

Bill Clinton's approval ratings almost certainly would not be in the high 60's if he were still eligible to run in 2000. More likely they'd be somewhere around 50%, with around 42-43% disapproving.

Against W, that's probably enough for a victory in the popular vote, and by a relatively comfortable margin. The electoral college might be closer.

In this scenario, facing an incumbent President Clinton, Bush doesn't pick Cheney. I think he specifically picks a female running mate, to draw a contrast with Clinton.

I also think Gore would decline to remain on the ticket in this scenario, out of disgust for Bill's affairs, and his general treatment by Bill, and relative sidelining in favor of Hillary.

While Bill is tempted to just pick Hillary, he ultimately decides that's a bridge too far, and as IRL, Hillary runs for the Senate.



President Bill Clinton/Senator Joe Biden (D) 51%
Governor George W. Bush/Governor Christine Todd Whitman (R) 46%

[Alben Barkley]

Bill Clinton's approval ratings almost certainly would not be in the high 60's if he were still eligible to run in 2000. More likely they'd be somewhere around 50%, with around 42-43% disapproving.

Against W, that's probably enough for a victory in the popular vote, and by a relatively comfortable margin. The electoral college might be closer.

In this scenario, facing an incumbent President Clinton, Bush doesn't pick Cheney. I think he specifically picks a female running mate, to draw a contrast with Clinton.

I also think Gore would decline to remain on the ticket in this scenario, out of disgust for Bill's affairs, and his general treatment by Bill, and relative sidelining in favor of Hillary.

While Bill is tempted to just pick Hillary, he ultimately decides that's a bridge too far, and as IRL, Hillary runs for the Senate.



President Bill Clinton/Senator Joe Biden (D) 51%
Governor George W. Bush/Governor Christine Todd Whitman (R) 46%

Almost everything you just said is wrong.

At this point I have to wonder if you are deliberately just making outlandish maps based on ridiculous assumptions as some kind of shtick or something.