Brazil 2006 Presidential Election

[Harry Hayfield]

(Data from Record Television)

(Exit Polls)

Lula 50% 49%
Alckmann 38% 38%
Helena 9% 8%

[ag]

I guess, it is also of interest to look at gobernatorial and congressional polls. 

O Globo reports some exit polling from Ibope

Sao Paulo (governor)

Jose Serra (PSDB) 58% (elected)
Aloizio Mercadante (PT) 30%

Minas Gerais (governor)

Aecio Neves (PSDB) 75% (elected)
Nilmario Miranda (PT) 22%

Rio de Janeiro  (governor)

Sergio Cabral (PMDB) 41% (goes into second round against one of the following 2)
Denise Frossard (PPS) 23%
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 21%

Bahia (governor)

Jaques Wagner (PT) 49% (2nd round?)
Paulo Souto (PFL) 43% (2nd round?)

Goias (governor)

Alcides Rodrigues (PP) 47% (2nd round)
Maguito Vilela (PMDB) 42% (2nd round)

Federal District (Brasilia, governor)

Roberto Arruda (PFL) 53% (elected?)
Maria Abadia (PSDB) 22%
Arlete Sampaio (PT) 21%

Pernambuco (governor)

Mendonca Filho (PFL) 39% (2nd round)
Eduardo Campos (PSB) 34% (2nd round0
Humberto Costa (PT) 22%

Parana (governor)

Roberto Requiao (PMDB) 44% (2nd round)
Osmar Dias (PDT) 37% (2nd round)

[ag]

Either it will change, or it is a lot closer than expected.

W/ 46.05% of the precincts counted it is

Lula 46.98%
Alckmin 43.09%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Suprising; do you know which areas have been counted yet?

[ag]

Suprising; do you know which areas have been counted yet?

I don't. But it's inching towards 1st round victory anyway.

W/ 60.38% of the precincts reporting it is

Lula 48.20%
Alckmin 41.97%

[ag]

Actually, looking at it closer, it's not clear, where the results go: Sao Paulo has barely counted a third of the vote. Also, though Lula is leading in Rio and Minas Gerais (where the count is also slow), he doesn't have 50% in either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a website with results?

[ag]

Overall w/ 66.80% reporting
Lula 48.76%
Alckmin 41.43%

State by state, according to O Globo:

Rio Grande do Sul 92.93% reporting
Alckmin 56.00%

Santa Catarina 99% reporting
Alckmin 56.70%

Parana 96.79% reporting
Alckmin 53.02%

Sao Paulo 33.97% reporting
Alckmin 57.61%

Mato Grosso do Sul 89.38% reporting
Alckmin 56.90%

Minas Gerais 39.47%
Lula 50.25%

Rio de Janeiro 53.59%
Lula 46.39%

Espirito Santo 99.81%
Lula 52.88%

Goias 96.68%
Alckmin 51.59%

Distrito Federal 99.24%
Alckmin 44.03%

Mato Gross 0% (must be nearly 0) reporting
Alckmin 56.88% (of what?)

Bahia 58.56%
Lula 66.94%

Rondonia 90.45%
Alckmin 47.26%

Toncantins 81.02%
Lula 58.04%

Segirpe 92.31%
Lula 46.80%

Alagoas 71.20%
Lula 46.92%

Pernambuco 88.12%
Lula 70.89%

Paraiba 97.33%
Lula 65.32%

Rio Grande do Norte 84.72%
Lula 60.15%

Piaui 66.26%
Lula 65.86%

Ceara 55.92%
Lula 69.41%

Maranhao 73.12%
Lula 74.65%

Para 64.81%
Lula 50.66%

Amapa 91.58%
Lula 54.18%

Amazonas 85.63%
Lula 77.87%

Roraima 51.09%
Alckmin 59.95%

Acre 0% reporting (really 0)

[ag]

Is there a website with results?

Sure.

Try http://oglobo.oglobo.com or http://www.justicaeleitoral.gov.br/ (the latter is official)

W/ 73.76% of precincts reporting it is

Lula 49.31%
Alckmin 40.94%

Anyone here knows, how Mato Grosso and Acre are going to vote? Because these still have to report anything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sure.

Try http://oglobo.oglobo.com or http://www.justicaeleitoral.gov.br/ (the latter is official)

Thanks

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Mato Grosso voted 70% for Cardoso in 1998 while Acre is fairly leftist IIRC

[ag]

Update:

Overall w/ 76.10% reporting
Lula 49.39%
Alckmin 40.88%

State by state, according to official site:

Rio Grande do Sul 95.49% reporting
Alckmin 55.89%
Lula 32.86%

Santa Catarina 99.43% reporting
Alckmin 56.60%
Lula 33.22%

Parana 97.93% reporting
Alckmin 53.00%
Lula 37.87%

Sao Paulo 38.91% reporting
Alckmin 56.16%
Lula 35.01%

Mato Grosso do Sul 98.10% reporting
Alckmin 56.30%
Lula 35.89%

Minas Gerais 93.62%
Lula 50.41%
Alckmin 40.92%

Rio de Janeiro 56.26%
Lula 47.28%
Alckmin 29.77%

Espirito Santo 99.96%
Lula 52.96%
Alckmin 37.16

Goias 99.02%
Alckmin 51.51%
Lula 40.14%

Distrito Federal 99.45%
Alckmin 44.06%
Lula 37.08%

Mato Grosso 55.56%
Alckmin 55.61%
Lula 37.55%

Bahia 66.87%
Lula 67.02%
Alckmin 24.73%

Rondonia 93.99%
Alckmin 46.85%
Lula 45.14%

Toncantins 92.54%
Lula 58.21%
Alckmin 37.66%

Segirpe 96.41%
Lula 47.28%
Alckmin 44.29%

Alagoas 82.21%
Lula 46.52%
Alckmin 38.07%

Pernambuco 93.28%
Lula 70.83%
Alckmin 22.88%

Paraiba 98.68%
Lula 65.25%
Alckmin 27.94%

To be continued

[YoMartin]

Alckmin did better than expected. Considering he lost by just 10% (or less, probably), a better candidate like Serra could have easily taken this to a "real" runoff, where everything could happen (not because Helena´s and Buarque´s votes could go to PSDB, but because every day some new scandal hurts PT). In any event, Alckmin got a few more weeks to find something new on PT and Lula, but I´d say that anyway he stands no chance in the runoff.

[ag]

Seems like a run-off.

W/ 94.66% of precincts reporting, the results (percentages of the valid votes) so far are:

Lula 49.01%
Alckmin 41.11%
Helena 6.87%
Buarque 2.70%
everybody else under 0.3% together

Alckmin did decently. The gap is less than 8% - probably, insurmountable without a major scandal between the two rounds (not improbably, though), but not a rout everybody was expecting.   

[ag]

Lula's campaign is admitting the second round.

Update:

Overall w/ 94.66% reporting
Lula 49.06%
Alckmin 41.11%

State by state, according to official site:

Rio Grande do Sul 99.84% reporting
Alckmin 55.76%
Lula 33.06%

Santa Catarina 100% reporting
Alckmin 56.61%
Lula 33.22%

Parana 99.90% reporting
Alckmin 53.02%
Lula 37.89%

Sao Paulo 78.41% reporting
Alckmin 54.67%
Lula 36.36%

Mato Grosso do Sul 100% reporting
Alckmin 56.25%
Lula 35.99%

Minas Gerais 99.69%
Lula 50.77%
Alckmin 40.65%

Rio de Janeiro 99.96%
Lula 49.18%
Alckmin 28.86%

Espirito Santo 100%
Lula 52.97%
Alckmin 37.15

Goias 99.97%
Alckmin 51.50%
Lula 40.17%

Distrito Federal 99.98%
Alckmin 44.11%
Lula 37.06%

Mato Grosso 93.87%
Alckmin 54.49%
Lula 38.87%

Bahia 94.10%
Lula 66.79%
Alckmin 25.74%

Rondonia 99.93%
Alckmin 47.04%
Lula 45.06%

Toncantins 99.49%
Lula 58.59%
Alckmin 37.43%

Segirpe 100%
Lula 47.33%
Alckmin 44.36%

Alagoas 98.28%
Lula 46.77%
Alckmin 37.75%

Pernambuco 99.24%
Lula 70.94%
Alckmin 22.86%

Paraiba 98.88%
Lula 65.31%
Alckmin 27.88%

Rio Grande do Norte 98.89%
Lula 60.15%
Alckmin 31.56%

Piaui 97.36%
Lula 67.35%
Alckmin 27.94%

Ceara 97.31%
Lula 71.15%
Alckmin 22.80%

Maranhao 98.89%
Lula 75.45%
Alckmin 18.84

Para 91.21%
Lula 51.41%
Alckmin 41.33%

Amapa 99.58%
Lula 54.40%
Alckmin 32.19%

Amazonas 99.06%
Lula 77.99%
Alckmin 12.48%

Roraima 94.49%
Alckmin 59.56%
Lula 26.23%

Acre 86.35%
Alckmin 51.54%
Lula 42.64%

[ag]

1. Acre 92% reporting
Binho Marques 53% PT (elected)

2. Alagoas 99% reporting
Teotonio Velela 56% PSDB (elected)

3. Amapa 99.9%
Waldes 54% PDT (elected)

4. Amazonas 99.74% reporting
Eduardo Braga 50.57% PMDB (elected)

To be continued

[ag]

Another chunk of votes from Sao Paulo (with quite a few more to go). Looks like the second round might still be slightly more than a formality (though, I'd still be awfully shocked if Lula looses in the end):

with 97.02% reporting it is now:

Lula 48.91%
Alckmin 41.30%
Helena 6.85%
Buarque 2.68%

The gap is now 7.61% - should be unbridgeable, but a month is still a month.

[YoMartin]

Another chunk of votes from Sao Paulo (with quite a few more to go). Looks like the second round might still be slightly more than a formality (though, I'd still be awfully shocked if Lula looses in the end):

with 97.02% reporting it is now:

Lula 48.91%
Alckmin 41.30%
Helena 6.85%
Buarque 2.68%

The gap is now 7.61% - should be unbridgeable, but a month is still a month.

Helena and Buarque´s voters would probably never go to Alckmin. And I guess Lula has proven immune to scandals (unless, I don´t know, he appears on tape raping a 10 year old boy). I mean, Dirceu, Palocci, Berzoini, his closest staffers had to resign and somehow he wasn´t tainted. And it´s not like his administration accomplished much. OK, he handled the economy responsibly, but he can´t show anything outstanding. So, I insist, Serra must be celebrating his victory in Sao Paulo but deep inside he must be wondering why he didn´t run for president...

[ag]

Looks like these might be final results for the night. With 98.06% of precincts reporting, it is now:

Lula 48.79%
Alckmin 41.43 %

W/ Sao Paolo still behind most other states in reporting, I'd guess,  the gap (currently 7.36%) might shrink a bit more.

I agree that the minor candidates' votes almost surely don't go to Alckmin, and, in any case, Lula only needs a bit more than 1% more to make it in the second round.  He is a very, very heavy favorite. But, still, given more time for the scandals to play, Alckmin just might make it.  Lula is not exactly teflone: before the latest scandals he should have won outright today - the scandals did cost him.  A strong evidence that he personally knew (eg, a tape with HIS voice), and he might still loose.

I actually disagree on evaluation of Lula's record. I am a long-time fan of PSDB, so I'd vote for Alckmin here, but, still, Lula is a sort of a leftist that I can be sympathetic to. Cardoso was a very, very hard act to follow, and Lula did it commendably (aside from the scandals).  "Handling the economy responsibly" - despite the protest in your own camp - is very, very difficult.  Lula's achievments are nothing to be dismissive of.

Update:

another batch from Sao Paolo just in. W/ 99.20% of the precincts reporting, it is now

Lula 48.65%
Alckmin 41.58%
Helena 6.85%
Buarque 2.65%

The gap has shrunk to 7.07%

[ag]

Ok, that's pretty much it. Sao Paolo now reported all but 0.12% of the precincts, the country has done all but 0.11%.  W/ 99.89% of the precincts reporting, it is now:

Lula 48.60%
Alckmin 41.63%
Helena 6.85%
Buarque 2.65%

The gap has shrunk to 6.97% - it isn't going to shrink anymore, methinks. So, 7% before the second round - less than one would have expected, but still formidable, given that Lula only needs about 1.5% more to be elected. I think, in the end it will be Lula 55% - solid, but no landslide.  That is, of course, assuming no further scandal.

[Beet]

Edit: Never mind

[ag]

One thing to note, Brazilian presidential election runs it what is, probably, the largest single constituency in the world, with the possible exception of Indonesia's equivalent (US presidential election being run by state). If Alckmin gets another 70 thousand votes, he will have gained a whole of 40 mln.! Lula already has more than 46.5 mln.! In comparison, the TOTAL number of votes (including invalid and blank) in the recent Mexican election was just under 42 mln.  Let's just hope, the second round doesn't end in the recount

[ag]

Before leaving it off for the night, the nearly final official results.  With only 31 out of 361,431 precincts left to report (just about 0.01% - I am really impressed that they could do it), the vote tally is as follows


Lula (PT, w/ support of PRB and PC do B) 46,658,288 votes or 48.61%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB w/ support of PFL) 39,965,329 votes or 41.64%
Heloisa Helena (PSOL, w/ support of PSTU and PCB) 6,574,890 votes or 6.85%
Cristovam Buarque (PDT) 2,538,737 votes or 2.64%
Ana Maria Rangel (PRP) 126,401 votes or 0.13%
Jose Maria Eymael (PSDC) 63,290 votes or 0.07%
Luciano Bivar (PSL) 62,060 votes or 0.06%
Rui Costa Pimienta (PCO) 0 votes or 0% (don't ask me how this is possible)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Runoff predictions?

Here's mine:

Lula 54
Alckmin 46

[YoMartin]

Looks like these might be final results for the night. With 98.06% of precincts reporting, it is now:

Lula 48.79%
Alckmin 41.43 %

W/ Sao Paolo still behind most other states in reporting, I'd guess,  the gap (currently 7.36%) might shrink a bit more.

I agree that the minor candidates' votes almost surely don't go to Alckmin, and, in any case, Lula only needs a bit more than 1% more to make it in the second round.  He is a very, very heavy favorite. But, still, given more time for the scandals to play, Alckmin just might make it.  Lula is not exactly teflone: before the latest scandals he should have won outright today - the scandals did cost him.  A strong evidence that he personally knew (eg, a tape with HIS voice), and he might still loose.

I actually disagree on evaluation of Lula's record. I am a long-time fan of PSDB, so I'd vote for Alckmin here, but, still, Lula is a sort of a leftist that I can be sympathetic to. Cardoso was a very, very hard act to follow, and Lula did it commendably (aside from the scandals).  "Handling the economy responsibly" - despite the protest in your own camp - is very, very difficult.  Lula's achievments are nothing to be dismissive of.

Update:

another batch from Sao Paolo just in. W/ 99.20% of the precincts reporting, it is now

Lula 48.65%
Alckmin 41.58%
Helena 6.85%
Buarque 2.65%

The gap has shrunk to 7.07%

I don´t underestimate a responsible handling of the economy, what I´m saying is that he can´t show very tangible improvements to the electorate. A debt reduction is great, but it´s rather "abstract" for voters, especially in a country with such immediate problems. If you add this lack of achievements to the large number of scandals involving his closest staffers, you´ve got to be impressed by his performance.

Anyway, about the handling of the economy, I think the GDP growth has been a bit disappointing. But I admit Cardoso (like Menem) left a tough situation.

Predictions? 55-45, unless some huge, really huge, scandal arises.

[ag]

But I admit Cardoso (like Menem) left a tough situation.

First time I see your English slip. I said something like "Cardoso was a tough act to follow" - which means, a presidency like his is hard to match.  I guess, we disagree on that man's heritage.

No diagreement on the prediction for the second round, though.  Lula winning 55:45 sounds about right.

Still, the opposition seems to be very, very energized, they didn't think they'd do this well, and Lula is clearly unnerved. The Brazilian media seems to make it a big Alckmin win and Lula loss. To the extent that some people vote for the winner, the reducton in Lula's inevitability might arode that vote a bit. Still, don't really believe this could be anywhere near enough for Alckmin to make it.