2008: John Kerry vs Rick Santorum
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  2008: John Kerry vs Rick Santorum
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Author Topic: 2008: John Kerry vs Rick Santorum  (Read 353 times)
Telesquare
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« on: September 04, 2021, 02:20:16 PM »

So let's say John Kerry wins in 2004, and Rick Santorum still loses to Casey in 2006.

Who wins in 2008?

Also, do scenarios both with and without the Edwards scandal, since it's not clear whether it would have happened.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2021, 03:05:58 PM »

Without the Edwards Scandal:


John Kerry/John Edwards (D) 45%
Rick Santorum/Mike Huckabee (R) 50%

With the Edwards Scandal:


John Kerry/Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
Rick Santorum/Mike Huckabee (R) 51%
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2021, 03:15:16 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2021, 08:11:54 PM by Soc. Dem Paleocon »

No scandal:



President John Kerry/Vice President John Edwards: 271 E.V/48.9% P.V.
Senator Rick Santorum/Governor Mike Huckabee: 267 E.V./49.7% P.V.

States Flipped (Santorum): Ohio (Tipping point from 2004):
States Flipped (Kerry): Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado

Some trivia:
1. This is the third consecutive election that the winner of the P.V. was not elected by the E.C.
2. This is the first time someone was re-elected without winning the P.V. either time.

Scandal:



As a sitting VP, the scandal doesn't receive as much backlash as if he was a vice presidential candidate, but it impacts the P.V. While Santorum would've brought out the Christian right vote, I don't believe he would've been electable in 2008 even during a recession, although any other Republican nominee that ran besides Paul would've beaten Kerry in this scenario. Santorum would've had to flip his home state of PA which rejected him by such a margin that he's unlikely to win statewide again, MI/WI/ME-2 where the cultural conservatives who turned out for Trump wouldn't turn out for him although Wisconsin would go for Kerry by Bush 2000 margins, and then NV, NM,CO, and NH where voters would reject his views on social issues, especially in Colorado with the Denver metro area growing. Santorum could've won in 2000, but he was the ideal candidate in the '80s/'90s. By 2008, most of the country was too socially liberal for him to win, although with the right circumstances he could've beat Clinton in 2016.
President John Kerry/Vice President John Edwards: 271 E.V/47.3% P.V.
Senator Rick Santorum/Governor Mike Huckabee: 267 E.V./51.1% P.V.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2021, 09:46:46 PM »


President John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) / Governor Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) ✓

Assuming Edwards resigns, which I think is likely whether or not Rielle Hunter happens- there's a decent chance he would have some other extramarital affair or resign due to his wife's cancer.
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Chips
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2021, 03:58:50 PM »

IRL 2004+PA.
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2021, 05:30:41 PM »


President John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) / Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)

Rielle Hunter scandal prompts Kerry to ditch Edwards and replace him with Hillary.

Of course that doesn't help in the slightest, and with the recession in full swing, and Kerry not being able to get any major legislation passed through congress due to the GOP majority in both houses, he looses to a Santorum/Giuliani ticket 306-232.
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Telesquare
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2021, 05:37:25 PM »


President John Kerry (D-MA) / Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) / Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)

Rielle Hunter scandal prompts Kerry to ditch Edwards and replace him with Hillary.

Of course that doesn't help in the slightest, and with the recession in full swing, and Kerry not being able to get any major legislation passed through congress due to the GOP majority in both houses, he looses to a Santorum/Giuliani ticket 306-232.
I wonder what a Hillary vs Giuliani debate would have been like.
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