September 2021; who wins in 2024?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Still Biden, almost exclusively thanks to the incumbency advantage, especially when the top two opponents of his, DeSantis and Trump aren't the most popular right now either. "I'm not them!" might be the best campaign to run, funnily enough. But it would be even closer than 2020 somehow at this point. Biden might lose Arizona and Wisconsin.

Let's hope this is Biden's lowest point and there is nowhere to go but up from here, especially by the time 2024 comes around.

[NewYorkExpress]

Michelle Obama's more likely to win than Biden and Kamala Harris at this point.

She's also more likely to win than any one Republican, but that's because the entire country, except for the Q cult hates Republicans.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

50% Trump, 30% Biden, 10% Harris, 9% GOP field, 1% Dem field

[Tekken_Guy]

50% Trump, 30% Biden, 10% Harris, 9% GOP field, 1% Dem field

Why are you so bullish on Trump?

[SnowLabrador]

Trump, sadly.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Trump lives to Election Day 2024, I take him over the field.

Trump, sadly.

Why are you bullish on an unpopular ex-president returning to office?

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

50% Trump, 30% Biden, 10% Harris, 9% GOP field, 1% Dem field

Why are you so bullish on Trump?

Because the American voter has the memory of a goldfish, and I don't trust them to do the right thing. They barely did the right thing even after the damnable sh**tfest that was the Trump administration, which people won't remember three years from now.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Why are you bullish on an unpopular ex-president returning to office?

American history is a story of maybe a dozen great men (hopefully women soon, too). Like him or not, Trump is one of those great men that has defined our history - for better or for worse. His story isn't over.

hahaha...In the long run, Trump is going to be seen as about as "great" as John Tyler or Andrew Johnson.  The idea that you could describe Trump in the same terms you'd use for Washington, Lincoln, or FDR is ludicrous.  Read a book some time, man.

[Telesquare]

NOTA

[S019]

Why are you bullish on an unpopular ex-president returning to office?

American history is a story of maybe a dozen great men (hopefully women soon, too). Like him or not, Trump is one of those great men that has defined our history - for better or for worse. His story isn't over.

Yes, defined our history by sending a mob on the Capitol and spreading misinformation about the election, he's better than the 1850s era disasters, but other than, it's hard to find a President worse than him.

[Chips]

Pure toss-up right now. If the election were held today I'd suspect that the GOP would be slightly favored, but there's still over 3 years left and things can and will change whether for the better or worse for Biden.

[Ferguson97]

1. Biden
(small gap)
2. Trump
(large gap)
3. Harris
(huge gap)
everyone else

[PSOL]

You all seriously underestimate how fast Trump will age compared to Biden in four years. Trump is done.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump, Harris or Biden

[Pericles]

Biden is re-elected by a few points in the tipping-point state, if America's democracy and status really collapses I think 2028 will be the decisive election. If Biden can't run, I have serious doubts about Harris' abilities, hopefully the voters don't see the Republicans as an acceptable alternative but someone fresh eg DeSantis could be well-placed to win an open election.

[MATTROSE94]

Donald Trump has got the election locked up by easily picking up Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, and possibly Rhode Island if he plays his cards right.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Donald Trump has got the election locked up by easily picking up Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, and possibly Rhode Island if he plays his cards right.

possibly Rhode Island...
ok

[Heebie Jeebie]

Why are you bullish on an unpopular ex-president returning to office?

American history is a story of maybe a dozen great men (hopefully women soon, too). Like him or not, Trump is one of those great men that has defined our history - for better or for worse. His story isn't over.

Yes, defined our history by sending a mob on the Capitol and spreading misinformation about the election, he's better than the 1850s era disasters, but other than, it's hard to find a President worse than him.

[S019]

Why are you bullish on an unpopular ex-president returning to office?

American history is a story of maybe a dozen great men (hopefully women soon, too). Like him or not, Trump is one of those great men that has defined our history - for better or for worse. His story isn't over.

Yes, defined our history by sending a mob on the Capitol and spreading misinformation about the election, he's better than the 1850s era disasters, but other than, it's hard to find a President worse than him.

No, Bush did do some good things in office, and the negativity of his wars is largely overrated, we did topple a brutal dictator in Iraq and install a functioning democracy.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Why are you bullish on an unpopular ex-president returning to office?

American history is a story of maybe a dozen great men (hopefully women soon, too). Like him or not, Trump is one of those great men that has defined our history - for better or for worse. His story isn't over.

Yes, defined our history by sending a mob on the Capitol and spreading misinformation about the election, he's better than the 1850s era disasters, but other than, it's hard to find a President worse than him.

No, Bush did do some good things in office, and the negativity of his wars is largely overrated, we did topple a brutal dictator in Iraq and install a functioning democracy.

I'm not going to highjack this thread with a tangent on Bush, but you're delusional if you think this.  Mr. "unjust, badly managed wars that cost countless lives, destabilized a region, and undermined US global leadership (all while establishing an international network of secret torture prisons and creating a domestic surveillance state)" was in fact a worse president than Trump.  Trump may be a worse person on some human level, but that's both debatable and an argument for another time.

[Mr. Smith]

McConnell.

[TodayJunior]

It will be Joe Biden or whoever the Democratic nominee is. Democrats start out with a massive structural advantage in key states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and probably Georgia by 2024), and are getting closer and closer in Texas with each cycle.

The GOP will also have to play hard defense in Florida, North Carolina, and aforementioned Texas. They may get lucky and win back Arizona, but that remains to be seen which direction they go with their nominee. Still wouldn’t be nearly enough. They’re going to try to go on the offsense in places like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, but I just doubt any other GOP nominee other than Trump could have a 50/50 shot. Dems aren’t just going to ignore those two like they half-assed it in 2016.

[Utah Neolib]

Biden, because of incumbency, and he’ll have much better approval ratings than he has today. People like incumbents, and if it’s Trump or some lack-luster Trump clone, Biden will win.
However, Trump would win over Harris or Buttigieg.

Biden is the most likely to win the 2024 election.

[GregTheGreat657]

45% Trump
25% DeSantis
15% Biden
5% Harris
10% Various Others