CA Recall - Redfield & Wilton - No +8

[wbrocks67]

No 51%
Yes 43%

Also, Newsom's overall approval is 49-32 (+17)

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1433182081161465860

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There won't be a RECALL

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Herding alert.

[Matty]

Just not sure why a 22 point underperformance by the dems is something that should upset be as a Republican?

[Utah Neolib]

There won't be a RECALL

There is literally a recall election

[Progressive Pessimist]

There won't be a RECALL

There is literally a recall election

In his defense, I think he means that Newsom won't be recalled. His algorithm just failed to recognize the grammatical error.

[Lief 🗽]

Just not sure why a 22 point underperformance by the dems is something that should upset be as a Republican?

Newsome won by 24 points in 2018, so IMO only a 16 point underperformance.

[_.]

Just not sure why a 22 point underperformance by the dems is something that should upset be as a Republican?

Newsome won by 24 points in 2018, so IMO only a 16 point underperformance.

How did Newsom perform so badly in 2018? (relative to presidential numbers, which are in the D+30 range)
2018 was a blue wave year generally, wasn't it?

[kwabbit]

Just not sure why a 22 point underperformance by the dems is something that should upset be as a Republican?

Newsome won by 24 points in 2018, so IMO only a 16 point underperformance.

How did Newsom perform so badly in 2018? (relative to presidential numbers, which are in the D+30 range)
2018 was a blue wave year generally, wasn't it?

The same reason he's not too popular as governor: he often comes across as a smarmy, entitled San Francisco elite. He underperformed more so in SoCal in 2018, just as he likely will next week.

He's just not too skilled of a politician, someone who's very lucky he lives in a D+30 state.

[SnowLabrador]

Just not sure why a 22 point underperformance by the dems is something that should upset be as a Republican?

This. Unless Remain wins by 20+ points, this should be seen as a good omen for the GOP in 2022.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm pretty certain this won't be as close, ergo we're likely going to see a double digit margin in the end. Partisanship was always about to kick in, just as why Dems shouldn't be excited about early polls showing KY races competitive.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just not sure why a 22 point underperformance by the dems is something that should upset be as a Republican?

This. Unless Remain wins by 20+ points, this should be seen as a good omen for the GOP in 2022.

You recommend my posts enough to know that I am not optimistic about 2022, but this particular election is unique enough and far removed enough from 2022 that I don't think it will actually say much about the upcoming midterm.  Statewide elections and their turnout during off-year elections can't really be compared to presidential years in some instances, especially a recall.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm a little confused by the "Newsom somehow underperformed in 2018 cause he's terrible" when he still won in 2018 with the second biggest margin & percentage for a CA gubernatorial election. And his percentage of support matched Clinton & was around 1.5% weaker than Biden.

Not to mention, non-presidential races in California just have two candidates.

Yeah, he was the weakest performing Democrat among the 5 D/R statewide races in 2018. But does that make Alex Padilla & Betty Yee terrible politicians because they won by 7% in 2014 compared to Brown's 20% and Newsom/Harris' 14%?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Larry Elder will never be Gov