THG’s current California recall prediction(s)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

lol

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

• Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
• He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
• Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
• The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
• The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.

 

So about that...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Still at 1630.  Should we be concerned?  For reference he was posting upwards of 50 times a day just prior to the recall results...

He hasn't posted in over a day, but he was online just a few minutes ago.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay, for the record here are the current results:

✓NO: 5,907,575 (63.8%)
YES: 3,354,109 (36.2%)

Also for THG's information the remaining votes will be relatively split, since the mail-in within four days and drop-box returns counteract the Election Day vote.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay, for the record here are the current results:

✓NO: 5,907,575 (63.8%)
YES: 3,354,109 (36.2%)

Also for THG's information the remaining votes will be relatively split, since the mail-in within four days and drop-box returns counteract the Election Day vote.

It doesn't look like it's tightening all that much?

So far no. It's been the same all of today.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay, for the record here are the current results:

✓NO: 5,907,575 (63.8%)
YES: 3,354,109 (36.2%)

Also for THG's information the remaining votes will be relatively split, since the mail-in within four days and drop-box returns counteract the Election Day vote.

It doesn't look like it's tightening all that much?

So far no. It's been the same all of today.

So it could end up still being over +25 for NO when everything's counted?  I am having trouble understanding how they can make estimates of outstanding ballots when everyone is sent a ballot and some could have just mailed it out the day before the election.

This is all new so nobody knows for sure. 

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

UPDATE:

78% IN:

NO: 6,120,868 (63.7%)
YES: 3,492,387 (36.3%)

Hey THG is this the ED vote R swing you had in mind?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

UPDATE:

78% IN:

NO: 6,120,868 (63.7%)
YES: 3,492,387 (36.3%)

Hey THG is this the ED vote R swing you had in mind?

I can't remember what it was on election night at this point but it looks like it's barely swung 1%.  Why was the assumption that it would swing anyways?  I thought the Election Day vote was the most Republican and presumably most of the late ballots were mailed.  What am I missing here?

It's just that THG in his 'hot take' forgot to mention how ED vote includes day-of drop boxes and mail-in ballots received up to one week after election day.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

UPDATE:
NO: 6,126,111 (63.6%)
YES: 3,502,254 (37.4%)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

UPDATE:
NO: 6,126,111 (63.6%)
YES: 3,502,254 (37.4%)

IT GREW RIGHT??

No, it was the big reduction that THG had in mind.

Anyway, here are the updated results:
NO: 6,181,244 (63.5%)
YES: 3,552,103 (37.5%)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It grew:

NO: 6,446,504 (63.6%)
YES: 3,684,144 (36.4%)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It grew:

NO: 6,446,504 (63.6%)
YES: 3,684,144 (36.4%)

What's the explanation?  Just bluer counties reporting now?  I think people here are looking too much at the last election (as always) in thinking there would be a huge split between early absentee / absentee / Election Day / late absentee balloting etc. etc.  It seems like there are some differences here and there but not huge ones.  It's looking like NO could stay north of +25.  Newsom won by +24. 

I don't know. Anyway, massive vote drop brings us up to 85% in:

NO: 6,698,131 (63.5%)
YES: 3,856,169 (36.5%)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It grew:

NO: 6,446,504 (63.6%)
YES: 3,684,144 (36.4%)

What's the explanation?  Just bluer counties reporting now?  I think people here are looking too much at the last election (as always) in thinking there would be a huge split between early absentee / absentee / Election Day / late absentee balloting etc. etc.  It seems like there are some differences here and there but not huge ones.  It's looking like NO could stay north of +25.  Newsom won by +24. 

I don't know. Anyway, massive vote drop brings us up to 85% in:

NO: 6,698,131 (63.5%)
YES: 3,856,169 (36.5%)

LOL, so there's been almost no tightening at all?  A couple of people here keep saying this will tighten to around a 20% margin.  Not happening. 

Minor vote drop:

NO: 6,714,964 (63.5%)
YES: 3,860,657 (36.5%)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

BIGGER update:

No 63.0% 6,984,595
Yes 37.0% 4,094,764

Now saying 87% in.  Getting close to final.  Margin now 26 even.

NYT says 89%. Either way, THG isn't going to be correct.