WARNING: HOT THG TAKES AHEAD. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
- Nuisance survives by roughly 5-10 points or so as of now. I don’t see him being recalled as much as I’d yearn to see it occur.
- He collapses in SoCal, the more Central part of the state, the Sac Area, and literally everywhere that isn’t the Bay Area massively- but crucially, remains strong enough in the Bay Area to basically not lose. And remember- the Bay Area has unfortunately spiritually controlled California’s politics for the last 30 years, which it probably will continue to do, although that will eventually slowly but surely change.
- Nuisance does utterly horrendously with non college/working class voters of all races (including minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, based on polls) and also does very poorly among independents, but again, the types of liberals in the Bay (and other parts of the state, but mostly the Bay) who are partisan Democrats probably save him. Again, California is politically spiritually controlled by ultra ideologically liberal white Bay Area types, even if the raw demographics of the state on paper may tell you a somewhat different story.
- The recall map probably looks somewhat similar to the 2004 Presidential Election results in California.
- The fact that this recall is even remotely competitive in California is still rather pitiful news for Democrats in 2022.
So about that...
TBF, the recall was a whole different race on September 1st. Even the most Dem partisan hacks weren't predicting a +20 result.
