Why did New Jersey trend towards Trump?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why did New Jersey trend towards Trump when it is essentially one giant suburb?

[bagelman]

Hudson and Passaic counties. See also Bronx NYC.

[kwabbit]

NJ has a large Hispanic, Asian, and 'other' population that swung towards Trump. NJ is an interesting case going forward. It's probably much too dense and diverse to ever not be Dem but some of its White groups (i.e. Italians) are more resistant to Dem trends than Anglos. Bergen County, for instance, should have become D+30 given its education levels and diversity. If non-Whites keep on trending GOP, it could become a D+10 state instead of D+15.

[Non Swing Voter]

NJ has a large Hispanic, Asian, and 'other' population that swung towards Trump. NJ is an interesting case going forward. It's probably much too dense and diverse to ever not be Dem but some of its White groups (i.e. Italians) are more resistant to Dem trends than Anglos. Bergen County, for instance, should have become D+30 given its education levels and diversity. If non-Whites keep on trending GOP, it could become a D+10 state instead of D+15.

I kind of think Republicans can only do relatively ok with nonwhites when there is really high turnout like 2020 (and with the right candidate).  Same with young people. 

Young people and minorities who consistently turn out seem to skew Dem.  When you get higher turnout among these groups it reverts somewhat to the mean, you get more borderline voters who aren't as into politics.  Even if they are evenly split 50/50 voters that will dilute the margin Dems normally get among young voters and voters of color.  I'm skeptical 2020 is a trend on that front.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, while it's not a tourist state to the extent Florida/Nevada/Hawaii are, Atlantic City and some other coastal areas attract a lot of tourists and were probably really hurt by the covid lockdowns, so there might have been some element of trending toward Trump in those areas because Trump was seen as more pro-business, anti-lockdown. 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

There are lots of WWC and Italians in New Jersey. Italians in the Northeast are one of the strongest Republican MAGA groups out there.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey ended up being a microcosm of national trends where Trump gained enough ground with voters of color in the state's major urban areas to the point where he was able to make the state swing only within 2% to Democrats. Biden gained a lot of ground with educated suburbanites, but in the end it seems like those urban voters are more worthwhile to a Democrats' performance in our state. Just look at Obama's uniquely spectacular performance in 2012 and even Booker's simultaneous election in 2020 where he managed to outperform Biden-doing better with voters of color but a smidgen worse with those same educated suburbanites.

[Suburbia]

There are lots of WWC and Italians in New Jersey. Italians in the Northeast are one of the strongest Republican MAGA groups out there.

This....They are a Lean R group

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I think this forum (and people in general) get wrong about NJ is that it's just one big giant suburb of NYC. Yes, there are definately some educated suburbs of NY, and they all swung heavily towards Biden, but a lot of NJ is urban and diverse (mainly NE Jersey like JC and Newark) and as we know Trump made many gains in places like these.

Furthermore, while southern Jersey is suburban, it's much more "Florida-y" suburbs that are lower education and older.