What state is most likely to have a double digit swing next?

[Alben Barkley]

In 2016, Michigan, Ohio, and Iowa all swung more than 10 points right from how they voted in 2012 and flipped to Donald Trump.

In 2020, no states had such dramatic swings, despite hopes among some Democrats that either the states that swung bigly to Trump would swing back just as hard and/or that states trending their way like Arizona or even Texas might have similarly huge swings.

If and when a double digit swing and flip in one election cycle happens again, in what state(s) is it most likely to be and which party is it most likely to benefit?

[THG]

Hawaii, Colorado, or (without Biden) Delaware?

I don’t see any of the sunbelt states outside of maybe Georgia having a huge swing either way any time soon. Of course, it is indeed very plausible that Florida swings heavily Republican too.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think the key is:

1) Not a re-election campaign (as those tend to be pretty similar to the first election results lately)

2) Has to be a state that both sides aren't heavily targeting. 

3) Probably a state with heavy in-migration or out-migration but not both or any kind of countervailing trends.

I actually think the best candidate might be Washington.  Biden did win it by almost 20 points but it seems like a state that could one day product California margins.

Another candidate, New Jersey, which had a 16 point margin last time but I think Dems could improve in.

If the GOP switches to laying off the politics of religion and culture issues, perhaps in the other direction Maine or New Hampshire could shift 10 points to the GOP.  Maine shouldn't be a 9 point state for Dems nowadays, Biden was just a good fit.