CA Recall - SurveyUSA/San Diego Union-Tribune - No +8

[Gass3268]

Keep 51% (+11)
Recall 43% (-8)

Source

[Lief 🗽]

The recall will lose by double digits. Can’t believe people let themselves get fooled by junk polls here.

[President Johnson]

Looks like things are shifiting in the polls. Eight points would still be underwhelming, but I fully epxect the recall to fail by double digits. Hope Uncle Joe and Kamala stump the trail for Newsom soon.

[Minnesota Mike]

The Dem +18 sample is a lot more realistic than the Dem +5 sample in their last poll. FWIW the 4 mill+ ballots returned so far are Dem +30.

[Matty]

This is very realistic.

If this was 2017 and a +30 red state, red avatars would be widely proclaiming it as evidence of a coming wave.

But we won't get those takes on here.

I think the decisive factor was the mailing of ballots. mexicans and college students were totally out of the loop on the reclal and wouldn't have shown up if they didn't get the ballot in the mail.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Ffs, its SurveyUSA in California, junk it, just like their last one needed to be junked.

[DrScholl]

Looks like the take about Hispanic voters voting for the recall is not accurate

If the Democratic Governor survives, it will be entirely because of support from minorities, where Latinos back the Governor by 27 points

[MT Treasurer]

This was always going to be framed as a D vs. R race by Newsom, and anyone who thinks CA (or NY) would pick any R over any D in such an election was a tad naive. I feel like even my No +9 prediction might be too conservative at this point.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Interesting how the recall is passing by 13 points among those under 35.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting how the recall is passing by 13 points among those under 35.

I feel like this is just another quirk of SurveyUSA's terrible crosstabs history

[Хahar 🤔]

Looks like the take about Hispanic voters voting for the recall is not accurate

If the Democratic Governor survives, it will be entirely because of support from minorities, where Latinos back the Governor by 27 points

That narrative never made sense, but blue avatars lapped it up because it seemed to them to be confirmation of what they saw last year in the Rio Grande Valley.

[THG]

Looks like the take about Hispanic voters voting for the recall is not accurate

If the Democratic Governor survives, it will be entirely because of support from minorities, where Latinos back the Governor by 27 points

That narrative never made sense, but blue avatars lapped it up because it seemed to them to be confirmation of what they saw last year in the Rio Grande Valley.

This same “pollster” shows the recall passing by double digits among voters under 35, which literally makes no logical sense whatsoever. I would probably not take the cross tabs seriously.