VA-Monmouth: McAuliffe +5, Ayala +1, Herring +2

[Skill and Chance]

So who wins control of the HoD if it’s D+3 statewide?

[Skill and Chance]

TMac will probably win, I'm more uncertain about downballot, hopefully Ayala's flaws are just poor name rec, and idk what's going on with Herring.

Don't worry too much. I don't think Winsome can win this one.

Disagree.  Sears and Miyares are both running way better campaigns than Youngkin.

[Skill and Chance]

When was the last time in the Commonwealth of Virginia that Ds controlled all statewide offices and the legislature at the same time?

For the state level offices (GOV/LG/AG) and the legislature, it was 1993.  If you include the federal senate seats, it was 1969 (VA Dems obviously believed very different things back then).

[Skill and Chance]

TMac will probably win, I'm more uncertain about downballot, hopefully Ayala's flaws are just poor name rec, and idk what's going on with Herring.

Don't worry too much. I don't think Winsome can win this one.

Disagree.  Sears and Miyares are both running way better campaigns than Youngkin.

I was mostly making a pun, but even if they are running better campaigns I still don't see them being able to overcome Virginia's partisan slant. I really cannot fathom that too many will split their tickets. I know that there are always more than there should be, against all common sense, but I doubt there will be enough for any of the major statewide Democrats to lose.

I think Sears is nutty enough that enough opposition research exists on her for Ayala to probably win the lion's share of undecideds, but never underestimate the amount of people who ticket split for the sake of it, even when the candidates involved are particularly awful. I'd still say both are favored, but if it's still here in say October, then you'll begin to wonder, if some of those undecideds are leaning Republican.

The modern VA GOP almost always does better downballot than in the governor's race.  They held AG through Warner's and Kaine's governorships and then just barely lost it in a recount in 2013.  They also won LG under Kaine. 

There's little sign this has changed in the Trump era.  Northam outran both the LG and AG Dems by 3-4%.  R's held the HoD in 2017 and still won a bunch of Clinton state legislative seats in 2019.  I would think this would especially true in a year when Dems have a quasi-incumbent running for governor.   

If VA-GOV is McAuliffe +3, it's very possible R's win everything else and it's basically assured if McAuliffe barely wins.