VA-Monmouth: McAuliffe +5, Ayala +1, Herring +2
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December 04, 2021, 12:17:51 PM

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  VA-Monmouth: McAuliffe +5, Ayala +1, Herring +2
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Author Topic: VA-Monmouth: McAuliffe +5, Ayala +1, Herring +2  (Read 865 times)
VAR
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« on: August 31, 2021, 10:11:59 AM »

August 24-29, 802 RV, MoE: 3.5%

Governor
Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 42%

Lieutenant Governor
Hala Ayala (D) 43%
Winsome Sears (R) 42%

Attorney General
Mark Herring (D) 45%
Jason Miyares (R) 43%

Generic ballot
Democratic 48%
Republican 45%

Favorabilities
Glenn Youngkin - 37/27 (+10)
Terry McAuliffe - 39/35 (+4)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_va_083121.pdf/
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jimmie
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2021, 12:33:54 PM »

Will be funny on nov 2nd when Tmac wins by 5.

Most predictable result ever.
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Matty
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« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2021, 01:33:42 PM »

As a republican, I would be very confused how to interpret a +5 mcauliffe win.

Yes, it would be an under performance from 2020 president for dems, but would be on par with 2016, which wouldn't be much evidence of a red wave in 2022.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2021, 01:50:04 PM »
« Edited: August 31, 2021, 08:59:40 PM by TodayJunior »

VA was about 6% left of the nation as a whole in 2020. In the presidential elections in the 21st century, it has moved from +8 to +5, +1, 0, -3, -6, relative to the national average. A steady shift left no matter which party has the White House. You can expect it to be on track to be -9 or so by 2024 (but about a max of a 15% Dem margin, whichever is lesser), which is nothing other than safe blue territory.

If this race is decided for Dems by 10-15, itís a neutral year/Dems have the advantage; between 5-10, Republicans have the advantage but it wonít be too terrible for Dems (Dems narrowly lose house, but hold the senate); if itís less than 5, the midterms will be ugly for Dems but not a wipeout (narrowly lose both house and senate); if Youngkin actually wins, itís lights out for Dems. Sound the alarm. The ship is going down!!Ö.But thatís just me.
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jimmie
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« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2021, 01:51:09 PM »

I am worried that the Trumpkin supporters will not back down and still am frightened to death about a second January 6th but this time in Richmond.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2021, 04:55:34 PM »

As a republican, I would be very confused how to interpret a +5 mcauliffe win.

Yes, it would be an under performance from 2020 president for dems, but would be on par with 2016, which wouldn't be much evidence of a red wave in 2022.

This is a weird take. Wave environments/elections donít hit states equally hard, especially those as inflexibly blue as VA. Was McAuliffe and other Democrats winning VA in 2013 (first time since 1973 that the President's party won the governorship in the state) a good sign for national Democrats?

Democrats could easily sweep VA and still lose the far more competitive group of states that is NV/NH/PA/WI/MI/AZ/etc. (and the House with it).
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2021, 05:12:17 PM »

Lol it's 500 days til the Election
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2021, 09:37:11 PM »

So who wins control of the HoD if itís D+3 statewide?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2021, 11:18:46 AM »

Dems would probably win the HOD by a couple seats.  I believe around 53 seats are actually to the left of the statewide partisanship.
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vitoNova
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« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2021, 08:49:46 AM »

It would not surprise me in the least that NOVA is one of the few areas in the country where Biden's approval ratings actually increased after the end of US military operations in Afghanistan.  Is there any polling on this, I wonder?  Ironic, considering we are the heart of the military-industrial complex. 

But Democrats here do not tend to be pearl-clutching sky-screechers.  

Daddy Mac by +6
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S019
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« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2021, 10:45:08 PM »

TMac will probably win, I'm more uncertain about downballot, hopefully Ayala's flaws are just poor name rec, and idk what's going on with Herring.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2021, 05:59:36 PM »

TMac will probably win, I'm more uncertain about downballot, hopefully Ayala's flaws are just poor name rec, and idk what's going on with Herring.

Don't worry too much. I don't think Winsome can win this one.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2021, 06:42:51 PM »

TMac will probably win, I'm more uncertain about downballot, hopefully Ayala's flaws are just poor name rec, and idk what's going on with Herring.

Don't worry too much. I don't think Winsome can win this one.

Disagree.  Sears and Miyares are both running way better campaigns than Youngkin.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2021, 06:45:31 PM »

TMac will probably win, I'm more uncertain about downballot, hopefully Ayala's flaws are just poor name rec, and idk what's going on with Herring.

Don't worry too much. I don't think Winsome can win this one.

Disagree.  Sears and Miyares are both running way better campaigns than Youngkin.

I was mostly making a pun, but even if they are running better campaigns I still don't see them being able to overcome Virginia's partisan slant. I really cannot fathom that too many will split their tickets. I know that there are always more than there should be, against all common sense, but I doubt there will be enough for any of the major statewide Democrats to lose.
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Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2021, 06:47:42 PM »

When was the last time in the Commonwealth of Virginia that Ds controlled all statewide offices and the legislature at the same time?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2021, 10:27:49 AM »

When was the last time in the Commonwealth of Virginia that Ds controlled all statewide offices and the legislature at the same time?

For the state level offices (GOV/LG/AG) and the legislature, it was 1993.  If you include the federal senate seats, it was 1969 (VA Dems obviously believed very different things back then).
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Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2021, 01:09:56 PM »

When was the last time in the Commonwealth of Virginia that Ds controlled all statewide offices and the legislature at the same time?

For the state level offices (GOV/LG/AG) and the legislature, it was 1993.  If you include the federal senate seats, it was 1969 (VA Dems obviously believed very different things back then).
Interesting. Yeah, either way that is a long time.
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S019
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« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2021, 04:31:29 PM »

TMac will probably win, I'm more uncertain about downballot, hopefully Ayala's flaws are just poor name rec, and idk what's going on with Herring.

Don't worry too much. I don't think Winsome can win this one.

Disagree.  Sears and Miyares are both running way better campaigns than Youngkin.

I was mostly making a pun, but even if they are running better campaigns I still don't see them being able to overcome Virginia's partisan slant. I really cannot fathom that too many will split their tickets. I know that there are always more than there should be, against all common sense, but I doubt there will be enough for any of the major statewide Democrats to lose.

I think Sears is nutty enough that enough opposition research exists on her for Ayala to probably win the lion's share of undecideds, but never underestimate the amount of people who ticket split for the sake of it, even when the candidates involved are particularly awful. I'd still say both are favored, but if it's still here in say October, then you'll begin to wonder, if some of those undecideds are leaning Republican.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: September 07, 2021, 11:17:31 AM »

TMac will probably win, I'm more uncertain about downballot, hopefully Ayala's flaws are just poor name rec, and idk what's going on with Herring.

Don't worry too much. I don't think Winsome can win this one.

Disagree.  Sears and Miyares are both running way better campaigns than Youngkin.

I was mostly making a pun, but even if they are running better campaigns I still don't see them being able to overcome Virginia's partisan slant. I really cannot fathom that too many will split their tickets. I know that there are always more than there should be, against all common sense, but I doubt there will be enough for any of the major statewide Democrats to lose.

I think Sears is nutty enough that enough opposition research exists on her for Ayala to probably win the lion's share of undecideds, but never underestimate the amount of people who ticket split for the sake of it, even when the candidates involved are particularly awful. I'd still say both are favored, but if it's still here in say October, then you'll begin to wonder, if some of those undecideds are leaning Republican.

The modern VA GOP almost always does better downballot than in the governor's race.  They held AG through Warner's and Kaine's governorships and then just barely lost it in a recount in 2013.  They also won LG under Kaine. 

There's little sign this has changed in the Trump era.  Northam outran both the LG and AG Dems by 3-4%.  R's held the HoD in 2017 and still won a bunch of Clinton state legislative seats in 2019.  I would think this would especially true in a year when Dems have a quasi-incumbent running for governor.   

If VA-GOV is McAuliffe +3, it's very possible R's win everything else and it's basically assured if McAuliffe barely wins.   
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