TodayJunior
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,562
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« on: August 31, 2021, 01:50:04 PM » |
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« edited: August 31, 2021, 08:59:40 PM by TodayJunior »
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VA was about 6% left of the nation as a whole in 2020. In the presidential elections in the 21st century, it has moved from +8 to +5, +1, 0, -3, -6, relative to the national average. A steady shift left no matter which party has the White House. You can expect it to be on track to be -9 or so by 2024 (but about a max of a 15% Dem margin, whichever is lesser), which is nothing other than safe blue territory.
If this race is decided for Dems by 10-15, it’s a neutral year/Dems have the advantage; between 5-10, Republicans have the advantage but it won’t be too terrible for Dems (Dems narrowly lose house, but hold the senate); if it’s less than 5, the midterms will be ugly for Dems but not a wipeout (narrowly lose both house and senate); if Youngkin actually wins, it’s lights out for Dems. Sound the alarm. The ship is going down!!….But that’s just me.
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