What coalitions do *you* want by 2032?

[MABA 2020]

I'd like the Democrats to be united in support of social democracy and the Republicans to be basically just a more moderate version of that.

Also everyone is on board with climate change being the biggest treat to the future of the planet and both parties are competing with each other to see who can be more ambitious than the other in tackling it.

[BG-NY]

What I want -

A multiracial, lower educational attainment, working and lower middle class republican party that moderates on moral issues, and becomes more nationalist

The democrats would ideally become like the UK Lib Dems to present a clear choice in politics.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Democrats returning to being the party of the Masses and Republicans returning to being the party of the Classes

(cc Al )

[Frodo]

Blacks voting at least 95% Republican

And how do you intend to make that happen?  How do you get there from here?

Byron Donalds 2024

I was referring to an actual long-term electoral strategy, not another token black man put forward by Republicans with the hope that the black community will somehow fall in line when they see his skin-color.  How much of the black vote did he win in each of his elections anyway?  Right now, he looks like the Florida version of South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (if he ever gets that far).

[dw93]

What I want to have happen:

Democrats: To be a social democratic party that is purged of "woke" culture, that is made up of socially/culturally left of center working and middle class voters.

Republicans: To purge themselves of the fascists and zealots that currently control the party and become a moderate check and balance on the social democratic Democrats, more or less having the same coalitions they had in the 50s, 60s, and 70s.


What I fear could happen:

Democrats: Drift even further to the left socially and culturally, and becoming true "woke" "elitists" in that regard, while moving toward the right economically in the name of winning more of the socially liberal economically center-right suburban voters and securing the vote of the tech industry.

Republicans: Become even more anti democracy than they currently are, taking more drastic steps to suppress the votes of those that vote against them and even successfully steal a few close elections in the process. They win over working class voters due to the Democrats growing increasingly out of touch with them.

[Schiff for Senate]

[Frodo]

I want a Republican Party that fundamentally accepts (and believes in) a multiracial, pluralistic democracy, and acts accordingly.  I don't care how exactly they go about building a coalition that meets that qualification. 

[Xing]

A Republican Party that actually offers solutions to problems such as climate change, wealth inequality, racism, an unfair immigration system, and the absurdity of our healthcare system, thus abandoning their current platform of "Trump good, socialism bad, CRT bad, etc." I don't expect their solutions to be exactly what I personally want, but at least make a good faith effort to acknowledge these issues and make steps in the right direction, instead of singularly caring about putting as much red on the map as possible.

A Democratic Party that is truly a party of the working class, ignores the "woke" crowd and goes after tech companies, health insurance companies, the pharmaceutical industry, and unapologetically raises taxes on the most wealthy. Don't make it at all ambiguous whose side you're on.

[BG-NY]

[Biden his time]

A Republican Party that actually offers solutions to problems such as climate change, wealth inequality, racism, an unfair immigration system, and the absurdity of our healthcare system, thus abandoning their current platform of "Trump good, socialism bad, CRT bad, etc." I don't expect their solutions to be exactly what I personally want, but at least make a good faith effort to acknowledge these issues and make steps in the right direction, instead of singularly caring about putting as much red on the map as possible.

A Democratic Party that is truly a party of the working class, ignores the "woke" crowd and goes after tech companies, health insurance companies, the pharmaceutical industry, and unapologetically raises taxes on the most wealthy. Don't make it at all ambiguous whose side you're on.

[VPH]

Overall I would love to see a political system that's broadly center to center-right on social issues and center-left on economic issues. Also, I would love to see both parties drop the anti-institutional mess embodied by "pack the courts" and "the election was stolen".

Coalition wise, I would like to see (as unrealistic as this may be):
-Republicans doing better with working-class minority voters than they currently do and moving leftward on certain economic issues to accomplish that, along with dropping extreme culture war stances.
-Democrats also gunning for working-class voters of all races. Essentially, both parties would be built around middle-class coalitions. Democrats would still be more oriented towards social justice, but through advocacy for actual policies like Baby Bonds rather than arguing over silly culture war slogans like CRT or talking about defunding police.
-Consequently, Democrats stronger in rural areas than they currently are and Republicans stronger in urban areas than they currently are.
-Substantially more ticket-splitting based on candidate quality. Billie Sutton could win SD and Blake Fillipi could win RI. And somebody like Kevin Falcouner or Carly Fiorina could keep it close in California.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Based on the following Cook Swing-O-Meter (2020 edition) settings + existing trends

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Non-college White 31% D69% R, 60% turnout (40.3% of electorate)
College White 58% D42% R, 74% turnout (28.1% of electorate)
Black 83% D17% R, 60% turnout (11.5% of electorate)
Latino 60% D40% R, 69% turnout (13.4% of electorate)
AAPI + All Other 74% D26% R, 63% turnout (6.8% of electorate)

Black, Muslim, Jewish, and fair trade voters trend somewhat R from today. AAPIs, White Christians, small business owners, and healthcare workers trend somewhat D from today. Rust Belt continues trending R; Sun Belt stays static as a whole. Gender polarization increases while urban-rural and ideological polarization decrease and educational polarization stays constant.

233 D, 88 Tossup, 215 R.

This is how my scenario of the GOP consistently getting up to 20% (more realistically 17%) of black voters would most likely play out. I'm guessing the changes they would need to make to their platform, outreach, and messaging would also result in coattail gains among Jewish voters and Muslim voters of all backgrounds. This would also make the D candidate winning 74% of Asians + Pacific Islanders + Other Race totally impossible, although I would think the overall Asian-only vote could still be at least 70% D.

I think the only way [a black R candidate winning a majority-nonwhite, nominally D district] would truly happen would be to see significant change in the living standards and experiences of Black Americans so that their economic needs align with the Republican party. Black Americans remain much poorer than White Americans and do not have a collective interest in voting for a party that favors smaller government. Other groups have that opportunity because they have wealth and therefore an incentive to consider the Republican Party for economic reasons. The Republican party has convinced poor White Americans to vote for them but largely on cultural issues rather than economic ones.

Theoretically the cultural issues route could work to convince Black voters, especially younger ones to vote [R]. Issues like defunding policing and drug liberalization might be popular among young voters of color, however these are more libertarian stances that the Democrats struggle with and Republicans don't seem interested in. A surprisingly large number of young voters of color especially men aren't necessarily cultural liberals - they don't trust government, they aren't fans of feminism, and might be pro-second amendment, but there is shockingly little to no outreach to these voters and even though they might share much in common with the Trump-supporting new voters the perceived racism and cultural pressure to stay with the Democrats may prevent these men of color from even voting in the first place.

The South Bronx may fit this character well... Ruben Diaz Sr. has a history of winning there and is pretty effectively a Republican. So if this is the pathway to follow the GOP needs to start nominating iconic anti-establishment rebels within the Democratic party, but obviously that's a gamble.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Democrats run more "popularist" candidates who run on a populist economically left message while downplaying culture war issues and win back some WWC voters. After Roe vs Wade is overturned and abortion is decided at the state level it loses it's salience as a national issue. Younger evangelicals embrace more of a "social gospel" (as others have referred to it) brand of Christianity and begin voting Democrat which swings Georgia and North Carolina more solidly into the party. A sizable chunk of Appalachia swings back to the Democrats as the memory of coal fades and many begin voting on the basis of government programs they benefit from and also as Green energy firms such as AppHarvest are unionized and revitalize the local economy. With the religious right influence fading in the GOP the party becomes more dominated by secular nationalist conservatives, many libertarians return to the party as well however and they infight over issues such as trade.

I'm not sure what the exact map would look like but I guess to some extent I'm envisioning a party system where both parties would be more populist and less polarized. Democrats would still be dominant in the cities and have the overwhelming support of working class Black and Latino voters, the party would just be slightly more southern overall. Educated professionals would still lean Democrats but the suburbs overall would be more swingy and winnable by both parties and education polarization on the whole would decline. Republicans would be a strange bedfellows coalitions of Libertarians, Populists, Business owners and law and order types. The WWC overall is about the same with some in Appalachia and the Midwest returning to the Democrats but being cancelled out by the New England WWC trending slightly R.