What coalitions do *you* want by 2032?

[BG-NY]

.

[Telesquare]

Everybody voting Libertarian

[S019]

[darklordoftech]

I hope both parties oppose marijuana prohibition and civil forfeiture. I hope Republicans drop their opposition to gay rights.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What would the 50/50 map look like

[S019]

What would the 50/50 map look like

My guess is this isn't too far off from 50/50, the idea is Republicans surge in the Midwest, while Democrats continue to make Sunbelt gains, this is also a good enough Senate map, AK is probably competitive at this point, and maybe KS is too. Also a Democratic lock on the Big 4 basically ends GOP chances of winning the presidency.

[Person Man]

Dems running away with it-


Both parties have at least a 10% chance of winning-


Republicans running away with it-

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Dems: Coalition between SJWs, Big Business & the MIC, focusing on identity and "woke" politics.

Reps: Multiracial, working-class coalition with evangelical and union worker support,
focusing on reconciliation and "common ground" when it comes to racial issues.

Strong Dem advantage:

To be fair, Dems could win TX/FL in a great year, although RGV/SF loses respectfully, as well as retirees moving to Florida are equalizing suburban/urban gains, which likely neutralizes the trends, as they are both lean-Rep states currently.

Average Election:

NE-2, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, and North Carolina would lean Dem. All other states would lean GOP.

Strong GOP advantage:

,

[Non Swing Voter]

What would the 50/50 map look like

[Kamala's side hoe]

Based on the following Cook Swing-O-Meter (2020 edition) settings + existing trends:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Non-college White: 31% D/69% R, 60% turnout (40.3% of electorate)
College White: 58% D/42% R, 74% turnout (28.1% of electorate)
Black: 83% D/17% R, 60% turnout (11.5% of electorate)
Latino: 60% D/40% R, 69% turnout (13.4% of electorate)
AAPI + All Other: 74% D/26% R, 63% turnout (6.8% of electorate)

Black, Muslim, Jewish, and fair trade voters trend somewhat R from today. AAPIs, White Christians, small business owners, and healthcare workers trend somewhat D from today. Rust Belt continues trending R; Sun Belt stays static as a whole. Gender polarization increases while urban-rural and ideological polarization decrease and educational polarization stays constant.

233 D, 88 Tossup, 215 R.

[GeorgeBFree]

I don't know what catalysts would change people's minds, but I would like to see a conservative Republican leaning CA with swing states being AK, AZ, ME, HI, SC, and NC.

General Map:



Close Election:

[GeorgeBFree]

Good D Year:


Good R Year:

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Interesting, so I'm guessing Larry Elder wins, is popular, and is able to turn California into a GOP stronghold. I'm also guessing that either social issues must've become irrelevant or there must've been some sort of Christian-left movement for The Deep South/WV to flip, while they are able to somewhat recover with WWC workers, but that doesn't explain why Missouri & Ohio are now reliably Dem while Michigan/Illinois are not.

Good D Year:


Good R Year:

[GeorgeBFree]

Here's my shot at an explanation.

1. Roe v. Wade is overturned and abortion decided at state level. Wokeism also fizzles out nationwide as economic issues become more apparent with stagflation of the Biden presidency. UBI and ethics around paying people not to work become most contested social issue.

2. CA left leaning millennials move out of state due to cost of living and software jobs becoming more disperse (whether due to relocating to the southeast or international offshoring). The west coast will be the 21st century rust belt as software jobs will leave faster than manufacturing jobs left the upper Midwest. The SF Bay Area population declines by 30% by 2040 and Southern California trends right led by Hispanics. Entrepreneurial spirit of the state/support for small businesses and startups overrides social issues as primary concern for Californians.

3. With abortion settled, Mormons and Southern evangelicals trend left as they adopt a more social gospel view of Christianity. Catholic/Orthodox (R) vs. Protestant/Mormon (D) becomes the divide among Christians at voting box. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan GOP benefit from Catholic partisanship while Democrats benefit from gains among evangelicals in Indiana, WV, and the south.

4. GOP efforts to turn black vote do not do as well as expected, but they succeed in flipping hispanic vote. The Asian vote becomes split on gender lines.

5. White working class embraces universal basic income as automation accelerates while states who need manufacturing and tourism service sector employees oppose it. This is what turns Hawaii into a swing state as donor class their switches sides. It also keeps Florida in Republican hands and South Carolina a swing state while Appalachia and the northeast stick with the Democrats. Given history of oil dividend in Alaska, UBI gains ground there enough to make it a swing state.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trend R: All church-going Christians, regardless of race; Southern suburbanites

Trend D: Secular, blue-collar whites; non-religious Northern/Western suburbanites, rural mountain libertarians

Map:


Republicans could crack 70% in Mississippi, probably 60-65% in Texas and Georgia, and no Southern states would be remotely in play.

The barest Republican win might look like this:

[Kamala's side hoe]

Here's my shot at an explanation.

1. Roe v. Wade is overturned and abortion decided at state level. Wokeism also fizzles out nationwide as economic issues become more apparent with stagflation of the Biden presidency. UBI and ethics around paying people not to work become most contested social issue.

2. CA left leaning millennials move out of state due to cost of living and software jobs becoming more disperse (whether due to relocating to the southeast or international offshoring). The west coast will be the 21st century rust belt as software jobs will leave faster than manufacturing jobs left the upper Midwest. The SF Bay Area population declines by 30% by 2040 and Southern California trends right led by Hispanics. Entrepreneurial spirit of the state/support for small businesses and startups overrides social issues as primary concern for Californians.

3. With abortion settled, Mormons and Southern evangelicals trend left as they adopt a more social gospel view of Christianity. Catholic/Orthodox (R) vs. Protestant/Mormon (D) becomes the divide among Christians at voting box. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan GOP benefit from Catholic partisanship while Democrats benefit from gains among evangelicals in Indiana, WV, and the south.

4. GOP efforts to turn black vote do not do as well as expected, but they succeed in flipping hispanic vote. The Asian vote becomes split on gender lines.

5. White working class embraces universal basic income as automation accelerates while states who need manufacturing and tourism service sector employees oppose it. This is what turns Hawaii into a swing state as donor class their switches sides. It also keeps Florida in Republican hands and South Carolina a swing state while Appalachia and the northeast stick with the Democrats. Given history of oil dividend in Alaska, UBI gains ground there enough to make it a swing state.

None of these individually explain why OR is so much more D than WA and CO.

[Schiff for Senate]

This is my uncreative map that's based largely on trends (trends which have been exaggerated in some states and toned down in others)

[progressive85]

Safe Blue:
California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Georgia (you read that right), Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada (read that right 2), New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina (yeah still reading that right), Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Safe Red:
Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana (iffy on that one), Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

Tossup (2032 happens to be a wildly unpredictable year and potential realignment election):
Alaska, Arizona, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi (nut), Pennsylvania, Texas (oh yeah, the Big Kahuna), Wisconsin

Democratic Party:
Anti-elitist egalitarians, Religious left (especially Catholic left revival), Very large LGBTQ+ electorate by 2032, Tenth wave feminists, Suburban family values.

Republican Party:
Old people, anti-vax people, most of the military, most whites in rural areas, Law Enforcement, hardline capitalists and anti-socialists, any remaining Cheeto groupies.

There is also for the first time since 1912 in 2032 an actual four-way race, but this time it's very more competitive... Democrats and Republicans have secretly worked behind closed doors to shut the doors even harder on the 3rd and 4th candidates, but the nation is so sick and tired of corruption that they may just take out their anger on the two parties and start voting en masse (especially young men under the age of 30) for these new parties springing up.


Oops, accidentally read the subject wrong.  This is what I think might happen.. if we're going by what I'd like to happen, I want basically every state blue and very bright blue.

Like this:



That, btw, is the President-elect and I'm the First Lady.

[CEO Mindset]

what I want? both parties deciding to sh**t on the upper-middle class the way they currently do whites and males.

[Sol]

ideal tossup election. Basically based around what a modern new deal coalition could look like, though obviously a bit implausible.

[Continential]

This would be my "ideal" coalition if this was somehow possible.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Blacks voting at least 95% Republican

[CEO Mindset]

Blacks voting at least 95% Republican

a coalition of white proles, mestizos, blacks, well working class in general against the upper middle class would be doable.

80% of the electorate vs 20% is a solid majority and the 20% opposition would only win majorities in the house/senate or white house ever by uh having to moderate

[Frodo]

Blacks voting at least 95% Republican

And how do you intend to make that happen?  How do you get there from here?

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Blacks voting at least 95% Republican

And how do you intend to make that happen?  How do you get there from here?

Byron Donalds 2024