Not even the philosopher who came up with the simulation argument believes we are in one. In fact the argument itself is that the simulation is only one of 3 possibilities for humanity. And to make it relies on certain unknowable assumptions about advanced technology and the nature of future civilisations.
The argument shows that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation. A number of other consequences of this result are also discussed.
Personally, and granting that the simulation argument is sound, I think (1) is the most likely.
Poll
