What if Buttigieg and Klobuchar were the only primary candidates?

[darklordoftech]

Who would win each state? Who would win the nomination?

[Alben Barkley]

I think Klob probably wins all states except maybe Indiana. She would almost certainly have the backing of black voters, the Democratic establishment, and maybe even progressives.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Whatever happened in the primaries, they would have been absolutely slaughtered by Trump.

I think Klob probably wins all states except maybe Indiana. She would almost certainly have the backing of black voters, the Democratic establishment, and maybe even progressives.

Black participation in the primaries would have been catastrophically low. Pete probably runs a different campaign than his actual 2020 (or at least 2017-2019) campaign if Klobuchar is his only competitor and Harris, Biden, Castro, etc. aren't around.

[Alben Barkley]

Whatever happened in the primaries, they would have been absolutely slaughtered by Trump.

I think Klob probably wins all states except maybe Indiana. She would almost certainly have the backing of black voters, the Democratic establishment, and maybe even progressives.

Black participation in the primaries would have been catastrophically low. Pete probably runs a different campaign than his actual 2020 (or at least 2017-2019) campaign if Klobuchar is his only competitor and Harris, Biden, Castro, etc. aren't around.

Disagree. Black turnout for Biden wasn't so high because the black community has some special love for Biden. It was because leaders of the black community firmly endorsed him. If they did the same for Klobuchar, she would have gotten similar turnout.

And I also disagree about losing to Trump. I think she could have easily won WI/MI/PA and NE-02, maybe AZ, probably not GA. That's enough in any case.

In fact, I think Klob might well be the ONLY other Democratic primary candidate besides Biden who could have won (Sherrod Brown also could have, but he didn't run). Her appeal to WWC and suburban whites in key swing states, especially in the midwest/rust belt, would have been critical. Any minor decrease in black turnout would have been more than offset by that, again except in GA.

[DaleCooper]

It's impossible to know how the campaigns and platforms would change if this were the competition, but I think it's likely that this small of a field, lacking any blue state progressives from the coasts, would allow the two of them to focus on real issues more than the stupid performances the primary did end up consisting of. I'm certain Klobuchar would win quite easily and I'm also inclined to believe that the Democratic Party's national reputation would be far less damaged going into the general than it was after the embarrassing primary we actually got. Would she beat Trump? That's also impossible to say confidently. I think a lot of swing voters would've seen her as pretty competent and reasonable, which would've helped, but she has a lot of other issues that would make it difficult for her.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think, as a prosecutor, Klobuchar would have been even less likely to win the African-American vote than Buttigeig would.

Most African-American voters either don't vote, or hold their nose and vote for Buttigeig in the primaries, despite his being gay, as they see Klobuchar's being a prosecutor as the bigger sin (which is why in a head-to-head with Harris against any non-Klobuchar/Biden candidate, she'd also lose the African-American vote).

Buttigeig narrowly wins a majority of pledged delegates, and wins at the convention on the second or third ballot after the superdelegates (who can't vote on the first ballot) break in his favor.

He'd probably lose to Trump, largely because he'd fail to pick up Georgia, and he'd fail to win back any Midwestern state other than Michigan.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Whatever happened in the primaries, they would have been absolutely slaughtered by Trump.

I think Klob probably wins all states except maybe Indiana. She would almost certainly have the backing of black voters, the Democratic establishment, and maybe even progressives.

Black participation in the primaries would have been catastrophically low. Pete probably runs a different campaign than his actual 2020 (or at least 2017-2019) campaign if Klobuchar is his only competitor and Harris, Biden, Castro, etc. aren't around.

Disagree. Black turnout for Biden wasn't so high because the black community has some special love for Biden. It was because leaders of the black community firmly endorsed him. If they did the same for Klobuchar, she would have gotten similar turnout.

Joe Biden was Barack Obama's Vice President. No number of endorsements would recreate the same level of support.

And I also disagree about losing to Trump. I think she could have easily won WI/MI/PA and NE-02, maybe AZ, probably not GA. That's enough in any case.

In fact, I think Klob might well be the ONLY other Democratic primary candidate besides Biden who could have won (Sherrod Brown also could have, but he didn't run). Her appeal to WWC and suburban whites in key swing states, especially in the midwest/rust belt, would have been critical. Any minor decrease in black turnout would have been more than offset by that, again except in GA.

Joe Biden was supposed to be the candidate who would appeal to WWC voters. Outside of the PNW and New England he didn't do that, and I don't think her statewide MN results are predictive of that much in a national environment so there isn't much reason to think she would do better than him. Likewise I'm really not sure that Klobuchar does that much better than Clinton in urban cores like Philly - and I think it's possible that in addition to lower D turnout there's a larger raw vote margin for Trump.

Of course all of this is ultimately unknowable and depends highly on what kind of campaign Klobuchar runs and who is running it. But Klobuchar was highly regarded as some sort of Sabermetrics-type candidate who had killer stats but no true energy or rationale behind her campaign other than that. It doesn't make a great recipe for running against one of the best grievance-fueled campaigners in American history.

[Mr. Smith]

Buttigieg effectively pulls an Obama or Clinton and tacks farther left to satiate the progressive wing and takes advantage of Klo's prosecutor record to make gains with the black vote.

I wouldn't be surprised if The South actually gets split like 2008.

[SInNYC]

In fact, I think Klob might well be the ONLY other Democratic primary candidate besides Biden who could have won (Sherrod Brown also could have, but he didn't run). Her appeal to WWC and suburban whites in key swing states, especially in the midwest/rust belt, would have been critical. Any minor decrease in black turnout would have been more than offset by that, again except in GA.

I know her spiel was that she appealed to the midwest, but if she really did why did she get killed by Buttigieg in the only midwestern state where they ran (IA)? This, despite her being from a neighboring state and having the most extensive IA organization initially. ...unless you are arguing that she has an unique general election appeal to midwestern Rs and independents that Buttgieg doesn't.

Having said that, I do think she would have done better than Buttigieg in the general election, but thats more because of his negatives.