NC Swing

[Schiff for Senate]

I noticed something interesting. Despite NC nearly supporting Biden in 2020, it actually didn't shift that hard to the left, particularly compared to nearby states - even WV shifted more to Biden than North Carolina! See these examples:

NC (reference point): 2.3 points
VA: 4.8 points (2.5 points more than NC)
KY: 3.9 points (1.6 points more than NC)
WV: 3.2 points (0.9 points more than NC)
TN: 2.8 points (0.5 points more than NC)
SC: 2.6 points (0.3 points more than NC)
GA: 5.4 points (3.1 points more than NC)

Why is this? Why did NC stay more or less static compared to its neighbours, given suburban growth and liberalization and the cities going even bluer? (Interestingly, NC was also home to one of just 6 Clinton/Trump counties outside Texas, Scotland.)

[Skill and Chance]

Probably the retiree influx?  That fits with SC's swing also being more modest than expected.
 There's also the Lumbee areas, which are unique to NC vs. the rest of the South and moved strongly toward Trump.

It also looks like there was some degree of disappointment with Trump in super red Appalachian areas, but I struggle to explain this. 

[Mr. Smith]

Because it's like Florida used to be...it's a demographic seesaw...it's been almost precisely 6 points right of the nation since the century began.

While the cities are moving D, the rural areas and exurbs are going hard R and aren't maxed out like in Georgia.

Also the 'burbs are only glacially moving D and started off last decade very strongly R.

Maybe it's a powder keg and it all collapses on the GOP like VA/CO did in '08...but I doubt it.

[Non Swing Voter]

I noticed something interesting. Despite NC nearly supporting Biden in 2020, it actually didn't shift that hard to the left, particularly compared to nearby states - even WV shifted more to Biden than North Carolina! See these examples:

NC (reference point): 2.3 points
VA: 4.8 points (2.5 points more than NC)
KY: 3.9 points (1.6 points more than NC)
WV: 3.2 points (0.9 points more than NC)
TN: 2.8 points (0.5 points more than NC)
SC: 2.6 points (0.3 points more than NC)
GA: 5.4 points (3.1 points more than NC)

Why is this? Why did NC stay more or less static compared to its neighbours, given suburban growth and liberalization and the cities going even bluer? (Interestingly, NC was also home to one of just 6 Clinton/Trump counties outside Texas, Scotland.)

Well for one, it did seem the Trump campaign spent a lot more time fortifying it than the campaign spent on the rest of the states, which it probably correctly assumed (with the exception of GA) wouldn't be competitive.  If you looked at that list in 2018 you'd probably think NC is the only state that would be competitive so you'd invest on the ground resources early on there.  Highly fought after states tend to not have big swings.  It's usually the ones that are taken for granted or assumed to not be competitive (e.g., Michigan in 2016, Georgia in 2020).

[Schiff for Senate]

Because it's like Florida used to be...it's a demographic seesaw...it's been almost precisely 6 points right of the nation since the century began.

While the cities are moving D, the rural areas and exurbs are going hard R and aren't maxed out like in Georgia.

Also the 'burbs are only glacially moving D and started off last decade very strongly R.

Maybe it's a powder keg and it all collapses on the GOP like VA/CO did in '08...but I doubt it.

Not entirely true. It took a hard shift to the left in 2008 and didn't really go back to being the red state it was during the Bush years (yes, it still does have an undeniable GOP lean, but it's not nearly as strong as it was in the Bush years). In fact Bill Clinton in '96 underpeformed his wife in 2016. These are NC's presidential results from 1992 to 2020, with the GOP (in 2008 Democratic) margin given:

1992 - R+0.8
1996 - R+4.7
2000 - R+12.8
2004 - R+12.4
2008 - D+0.3
2012 - R+2.0
2016 - R+3.7
2020 - R+1.3

The GOP went from a double-digit win to barely winning the state. It's kind of what happened in Virginia except North Carolina slowly drifted back into lean Republican mode and stayed there (the last time it gave either party a margin greater than 5 points was actually 2004), while Virginia (and for that matter Colorado as well) just continued shifting leftward, particularly in the age of Trump, supported by (sub)urban growth and liberalization and demographic changes.

[MARGINS6729]

The ''swings" can be somewhat misleading- DEMs did much better in North Carolina than in 2016/2012 but still failed to win the state probably because the Biden campaign needed to visit it more than it did and the GOP worked extremely hard at turning out it's low propensity voters. It's true that the retirees/the red exurban counties are problems for DEMs but the urban areas also need to deliver higher numbers for DEMs too. The GOP also registers more voters than Democrats do in the state.

[Mr. Smith]

Because it's like Florida used to be...it's a demographic seesaw...it's been almost precisely 6 points right of the nation since the century began.

While the cities are moving D, the rural areas and exurbs are going hard R and aren't maxed out like in Georgia.

Also the 'burbs are only glacially moving D and started off last decade very strongly R.

Maybe it's a powder keg and it all collapses on the GOP like VA/CO did in '08...but I doubt it.

Not entirely true. It took a hard shift to the left in 2008 and didn't really go back to being the red state it was during the Bush years (yes, it still does have an undeniable GOP lean, but it's not nearly as strong as it was in the Bush years). In fact Bill Clinton in '96 underpeformed his wife in 2016. These are NC's presidential results from 1992 to 2020, with the GOP (in 2008 Democratic) margin given:

1992 - R+0.8
1996 - R+4.7
2000 - R+12.8
2004 - R+12.4
2008 - D+0.3
2012 - R+2.0
2016 - R+3.7
2020 - R+1.3

The GOP went from a double-digit win to barely winning the state. It's kind of what happened in Virginia except North Carolina slowly drifted back into lean Republican mode and stayed there (the last time it gave either party a margin greater than 5 points was actually 2004), while Virginia (and for that matter Colorado as well) just continued shifting leftward, particularly in the age of Trump, supported by (sub)urban growth and liberalization and demographic changes.

And this is what these swings actually look like when supplanted to the national vote, which you failed to mention the overall PV went massively Dem after 1992, which has been very unshakeable.

1992: R+ 6.7 [D+ 5.5]
1996: R +13.3 [D+8.5]
2000: R+13.3 [D+ 0.5]
2004: R+ 10.2 [R+2.1]
2008: R+ 6.9 [D+ 7.2]
2012: R+ 5.8 [D+3.8]
2016: R+ 5.8 [D+ 2.1]
2020: R+ 6.2 [D+ 4.4]

Ergo, unless there's some kind of shakeup like Bush Jr and Dole pulled off with evangelicals, the state is just gonna keep balancing out like this.

Florida is the only other state quite so similar, with only 1992, 2020, and 2000 not inside the R+3-4 range.

[Schiff for Senate]

Because it's like Florida used to be...it's a demographic seesaw...it's been almost precisely 6 points right of the nation since the century began.

While the cities are moving D, the rural areas and exurbs are going hard R and aren't maxed out like in Georgia.

Also the 'burbs are only glacially moving D and started off last decade very strongly R.

Maybe it's a powder keg and it all collapses on the GOP like VA/CO did in '08...but I doubt it.

Not entirely true. It took a hard shift to the left in 2008 and didn't really go back to being the red state it was during the Bush years (yes, it still does have an undeniable GOP lean, but it's not nearly as strong as it was in the Bush years). In fact Bill Clinton in '96 underpeformed his wife in 2016. These are NC's presidential results from 1992 to 2020, with the GOP (in 2008 Democratic) margin given:

1992 - R+0.8
1996 - R+4.7
2000 - R+12.8
2004 - R+12.4
2008 - D+0.3
2012 - R+2.0
2016 - R+3.7
2020 - R+1.3

The GOP went from a double-digit win to barely winning the state. It's kind of what happened in Virginia except North Carolina slowly drifted back into lean Republican mode and stayed there (the last time it gave either party a margin greater than 5 points was actually 2004), while Virginia (and for that matter Colorado as well) just continued shifting leftward, particularly in the age of Trump, supported by (sub)urban growth and liberalization and demographic changes.

And this is what these swings actually look like when supplanted to the national vote, which you failed to mention the overall PV went massively Dem after 1992, which has been very unshakeable.

1992: R+ 6.7 [D+ 5.5]
1996: R +13.3 [D+8.5]
2000: R+13.3 [D+ 0.5]
2004: R+ 10.2 [R+2.1]
2008: R+ 6.9 [D+ 7.2]
2012: R+ 5.8 [D+3.8]
2016: R+ 5.8 [D+ 2.1]
2020: R+ 6.2 [D+ 4.4]

Ergo, unless there's some kind of shakeup like Bush Jr and Dole pulled off with evangelicals, the state is just gonna keep balancing out like this.

Florida is the only other state quite so similar, with only 1992, 2020, and 2000 not inside the R+3-4 range.

I agree with you that at this point NC is basically stuck at some type of Lean Republican area and isn't exactly trending one way or another. So NC becoming a blue state, unlike VA, CO and GA, isn't something that will just happen, but I'm guessing it will be a gradual, long-term leftward shift. Right now the only two ways I see NC actually flipping is if the Democrats (Biden and Harris) are extremely popular by 2024, or if Roy Cooper is on the Democratic ticket (he still won reelection as governor by 4.5%).

[bayareabay]

I noticed something interesting. Despite NC nearly supporting Biden in 2020, it actually didn't shift that hard to the left, particularly compared to nearby states - even WV shifted more to Biden than North Carolina! See these examples:

NC (reference point): 2.3 points
VA: 4.8 points (2.5 points more than NC)
KY: 3.9 points (1.6 points more than NC)
WV: 3.2 points (0.9 points more than NC)
TN: 2.8 points (0.5 points more than NC)
SC: 2.6 points (0.3 points more than NC)
GA: 5.4 points (3.1 points more than NC)

Why is this? Why did NC stay more or less static compared to its neighbours, given suburban growth and liberalization and the cities going even bluer? (Interestingly, NC was also home to one of just 6 Clinton/Trump counties outside Texas, Scotland.)

Most of NC is conservative.

[Central Lake]

It also might be due to North Carolina being a highly completive swing/tossup state from 2012 onwards.  Relatively politically disengaged people probably also know this. This results in the GOP grassroots being highly motivated and interested in GOTV and other campaign matters.


Similar to Florida being very close in multiple federal elections.

Contesting several close elections and winning close elections probably gives NC GOP valuable experience.

[Sol]

Probably the retiree influx?  That fits with SC's swing also being more modest than expected.
 There's also the Lumbee areas, which are unique to NC vs. the rest of the South and moved strongly toward Trump.

It also looks like there was some degree of disappointment with Trump in super red Appalachian areas, but I struggle to explain this. 

Swings to Biden are pretty strongly correlated with areas heavy with retirees, especially outside of major metros!

The answer is 100% down to the general Biden underperformance in rural parts of the state, which is imo a combo of a swing to Trump among farmers (also observable in the rural midwest), slight swings to Trump among Black and to a lesser extent Latino voters, and the asymptote of rural southern white democrats dying out.

[Wormless Gourd]

 The state has countervailing trends, and a mix of R-favoring population growth and shifts kept it from budging or flipping.
Population growth used to be very urban-heavy and now the retiree/recreational part of it has grown in importance. Mid-sized R counties have also grown and their raw vote margins are expanding quicker than they're shifting left.
Randolph(Triad exurbs), Davidson(Triad exurbs), Brunswick(retirees) and Johnston(Raleigh exurbs) counties are star examples.

 The other part is that general trends make margins tight but probably benefit Republicans in the end. NC cities are already deeply blue, their turnout is good and their immediate suburbs vote how they should given their demographics, but Democratic victory in the state remains contingent on a high floor with rural whites and maintaining a near-hegemony over minority voters.
 Obama '08 was able to barely accomplish this and NCDEMs can at times manage as well, but Republican inroads with blue collar voters across races generally complicate any Democratic gains elsewhere, as NC as a whole is more rural and less educated then other swing states. It's more comparable to the Midwest or Florida then VA, GA or AZ. If Biden was going to win here, he would've had to do a smidge better with non-college whites like he had in PA or MI. Cooper and Stein did it.

Probably the retiree influx?  That fits with SC's swing also being more modest than expected.
 There's also the Lumbee areas, which are unique to NC vs. the rest of the South and moved strongly toward Trump.

It also looks like there was some degree of disappointment with Trump in super red Appalachian areas, but I struggle to explain this.  

Swings to Biden are pretty strongly correlated with areas heavy with retirees, especially outside of major metros!

The answer is 100% down to the general Biden underperformance in rural parts of the state, which is imo a combo of a swing to Trump among farmers (also observable in the rural midwest), slight swings to Trump among Black and to a lesser extent Latino voters, and the asymptote of rural southern white democrats dying out.

Definitely agree about the rest but look below about retirees. A small hit to the margin is fine for Republicans when these are some of the fastest growing parts of the state. Moore county, the Outer Banks and other areas are similar.
https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1355222571051048963?s=20