NV Victory Creek (R): Laxalt+10

[MT Treasurer]

This is dumb, but so is the unbelievably smug Democratic hubris about NV, which at times is worse than the takes about PA/WI before 2016. It wouldn’t take a massive red wave for Laxalt (or any competent Republican, really) to win narrowly, and Cortez Masto is by no means far less vulnerable than Hassan.

[MT Treasurer]

If Cortez Masto loses, Dems probably are losing four senate seats and falling to 46 seats.  This means that Dems probably don’t win back the senate until sometime in the 2030s.

It’s not at all a given that NV flips after NH and GA. You could even make a case that it flips before AZ, but that’s probably not particularly likely.