NV Victory Creek (R): Laxalt+10
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  NV Victory Creek (R): Laxalt+10
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Author Topic: NV Victory Creek (R): Laxalt+10  (Read 1764 times)
S019
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« on: August 25, 2021, 12:14:38 PM »

https://www.vcreek.com/wp-content/uploads/Nevada_Memo_USSenate_Aug_2021-1.pdf

Laxalt: 42%
CCM: 32%

I guess we already have a candidate for worst poll of the year! Fwiw, I think Laxalt is narrowly favored, but CCM being at 32% as an incumbent is just not believable.
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Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2021, 12:18:05 PM »

Any poll which has 26% of the electorate as undecided is extremely laughable in this day and age. 
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #2 on: August 25, 2021, 12:29:18 PM »

Lol
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2021, 12:29:58 PM »

An incumbent at 32% support? Nevada is not Arkansas ca. 2010/14. Garbage
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: August 25, 2021, 12:34:50 PM »

Sure, Jan.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #5 on: August 25, 2021, 12:39:02 PM »

Lean D/Tossup, but this is a race to watch along with AZ, NC, GA, PA, WI, FL, OH.....
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: August 25, 2021, 12:40:18 PM »

lol sureeeeee
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: August 25, 2021, 12:43:56 PM »

This is dumb, but so is the unbelievably smug Democratic hubris about NV, which at times is worse than the takes about PA/WI before 2016. It wouldn’t take a massive red wave for Laxalt (or any competent Republican, really) to win narrowly, and Cortez Masto is by no means far less vulnerable than Hassan.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: August 25, 2021, 01:39:41 PM »

Bye CCM
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2021, 01:40:47 PM »

If Cortez Masto loses, Dems probably are losing four senate seats and falling to 46 seats.  This means that Dems probably don’t win back the senate until sometime in the 2030s.
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Person Man
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« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2021, 01:51:20 PM »

If Cortez Masto loses, Dems probably are losing four senate seats and falling to 46 seats.  This means that Dems probably don’t win back the senate until sometime in the 2030s.

If Biden wins in 2024. Maybe it happens in 2026 or 2030 if he loses. That would give Republicans 8 years in the majority.

The Senate hasn't really had a Dominant Party since the 70s and even then, there were enough conservative Democrats to keep it from being a super liberal body. The last and perhaps only time where there was a permanent right-wing majority was the 1920s.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2021, 01:53:11 PM »

If Cortez Masto loses, Dems probably are losing four senate seats and falling to 46 seats.  This means that Dems probably don’t win back the senate until sometime in the 2030s.

If Biden wins in 2024. Maybe it happens in 2026 or 2030 if he loses.


If Biden loses in 2024, Dems potentially lose six or seven senate seats, that would put them at 39 or 40 seats.  That hole would take several cycles to dig out of.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2021, 01:56:11 PM »

If Cortez Masto loses, Dems probably are losing four senate seats and falling to 46 seats.  This means that Dems probably don’t win back the senate until sometime in the 2030s.

It’s not at all a given that NV flips after NH and GA. You could even make a case that it flips before AZ, but that’s probably not particularly likely.
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2021, 01:57:11 PM »

If Cortez Masto loses, Dems probably are losing four senate seats and falling to 46 seats.  This means that Dems probably don’t win back the senate until sometime in the 2030s.

If Biden wins in 2024. Maybe it happens in 2026 or 2030 if he loses.


If Biden loses in 2024, Dems potentially lose six or seven senate seats, that would put them at 39 or 40 seats.  That hole would take several cycles to dig out of.

It took Republicans only 8 years and believe me, if there is any fight left in the Democratic Party, 2026 and 2030 would be really hard for the GOP. They will have to defend their record on privatizing Health Care, Social Security, and all sorts of new massive right-wing social engineering programs that can only be passed with large senate majorities and a SCOTUS supermajority.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #14 on: August 25, 2021, 01:57:30 PM »

Suffolk poll had Biden at 41/55 where others have him at 52%
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Vosem
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« Reply #15 on: August 25, 2021, 03:58:58 PM »

Amusingly, although these guys do Republican internals, their 2020 polling tended to underestimate Republican Senate candidates. (Though they may just be bad). Also, early Nevada polling from anyone always has weirdly high numbers of undecideds, and I'm not really sure why. (Considering 2008/2014, maybe the state is actually capable of providing a landslide to either party).

Laxalt up is believable under the current conditions of Biden's approval falling among everyone and cratering among Hispanics, but Laxalt+10 isn't really believable at all.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #16 on: August 25, 2021, 04:03:50 PM »

Lean R.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: August 25, 2021, 06:04:25 PM »

Nevada polls are also always dogs***, it isn't just Florida.

Actually, f*** it! After 2020 I have an easier time trusting that guy from 'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' who kept changing allegiances than I do the American polling industry in general.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #18 on: August 25, 2021, 06:28:34 PM »



Heller lead Jacky Rosen and Laxalt lead SISOLAK, Laxalt won't win by 10 pts
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2021, 09:13:19 AM »

worse polls are coming
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2021, 10:48:39 AM »

CCM isn't down 10 and Rubio and DeSantis up by only 3 the polls goofed up last time and said Gilli was gonna win and SISOLAK would lose, but CCM vulnerable is direct result of our weakness in Afghanistan
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Chips
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« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2021, 12:09:46 PM »

Masto is vulnerable but she's not losing by 10 unless there's a MASSIVE red wave.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #22 on: August 26, 2021, 12:48:45 PM »

so true
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beesley
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« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2021, 03:25:05 PM »

Remember Trafalgar having Donnelly up 12? Same energy, though obviously Laxalt winning by 10 would be a lot more plausible.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #24 on: August 30, 2021, 01:28:25 AM »

NV isn't going R, polls underestimate D's in NV, lol they had Heller and Laxalt winning and we know how this race turned out, throw it in the trash


Rubio and DeSantis only lead by 3 and CCM down by 10 realky
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