Map if the NPV was reversed

[Sir Mohamed]

A point to illustrate how ridiculous and unbalanced the EC is: What would the map in 2020 have looked like if Trump defeated Biden or any Dem candidate 51.3% to 46.9% in the NPV and 81 to 74 million raw votes?

[Skill and Chance]

On a (near) uniform swing, it would most likely look like this:



It's actually pretty hard for Republicans to get an EC landslide today, because so many high population states are off the table Dem.  Even Trump +4.5 isn't enough to flip VA and CO anymore!

[Non Swing Voter]

The EC is unbalanced, yes.  Mainly because there are like 10 million more Dems than Republicans nationally and many are concentrated into big metro states like CA, IL, NY, MA, MD, WA, NJ. 

But Dems still have an EC advantage because despite their voters not being efficiently spread out, there are more of them and thus they have more safe electoral votes and there are definitely around 270+ electoral votes that at least lean Dem in a generic election.

[Neptunium]

The EC is unbalanced, yes.  Mainly because there are like 10 million more Dems than Republicans nationally and many are concentrated into big metro states like CA, IL, NY, MA, MD, WA, NJ. 

But Dems still have an EC advantage because despite their voters not being efficiently spread out, there are more of them and thus they have more safe electoral votes and there are definitely around 270+ electoral votes that at least lean Dem in a generic election.

Do you mean WI, MI and PA? I don't think so.

[DS0816]

A point to illustrate how ridiculous and unbalanced the EC is: What would the map in 2020 have looked like if Trump defeated Biden or any Dem candidate 51.3% to 46.9% in the NPV and 81 to 74 million raw votes?

Margin of Republican +4.45 would have yielded carriage of 32 states.

Take the 2016 map of 30 states, for Donald Trump, and flip two of the following: Maine (statewide), Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

A national margin of +5 would have delivered all three.

Had the last two Republican presidential pickup winners—2000 George W. Bush and 2016 Donald Trump—won the U.S Popular Vote, they would have reached +2. (This is based on an average of +1 pickup state with each percentage point, in the U.S. Popular Vote, nationally shifted in the direction of a pickup-winning party. Example: a 2016 Trump, following 2012 Mitt Romney, went from –3.86 to –2.09. Normal structural pattern would have had Trump—who flipped six states plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District—reach +2.)

Nowadays Republicans, when they win the presidency, tend to carry +28 states in addition to their percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. Democrats, when they win, are at +21 or +22. A Democrat winning the U.S. Popular Vote by +4 will carry either 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) or 26 (a 2012 Barack Obama) states. A Republican winning the U.S. Popular Vote by +4 will carry 32 states.

The suggested order, from the 2016 Republicans, was that New Hampshire was their No. 31 best state and Minnesota their No. 32 state. I include Maine (statewide) because the particular carried order for either party is not exactly the same election after election.

[Chips]

Maine is within 0.2%.